Essays in Economic and Political Choice

This thesis is a collection of essays. Each essay is a whole chapter. I have prepared the following separate abstracts for each chapter. Chapter 1 Chance Constrained Dynamic Programming Model of Water Reservoir with Joint Products This chapter presents two models for reservoir management. Model l is a dynamic programming formulation which only allows exporting and importing of water to correct excesses or deficiencies caused by the optimizing decisions. It shows that if the one-period profit is a function of the water releases, water stock, and the physical capacity of the reservoir, then optimal decisions regarding water releases and capacity exist and are unique both for the N-period and the infinite period problems. Moreover, the model shows that if the profit function is separable and linear in the releases, then the optimal decision rule is linear and the long-run distribution for the stock of water exists and is a simple form. The model in the Appendix of this chapter is a deterministic equivalent chance constraint formulation in which an approximation for the long-run distribution of the water stock is determined. Chapters 2 and 3 On the Retrospective Effect of Economic Conditions in Congressional Elections: A Simultaneous Equation Model Approach In these chapters a simultaneous equation model is employed to investigate the relative effects of: 1) economic conditions, 2) incumbency, and 3) recognition of the presidential party's candidate on the dual decisions of the individual to participate and vote in congressional elections. My finding is decidedly negative regarding the effect of economic conditions on both turnout and voting for the presidential party. I have, however, established the relative effects of both incumbency and recognition. Chapter 4 The Decline of Competition in Congressional Elections: Mayhew May Still Be Right Several theories have been advanced to explain the reduction in the number of competitive congressional districts during the past decade. Among these is Mayhew's theory, which attributes the reduction to the increasing control of campaign resources by incumbents. Ferejohn presents evidence which casts doubt on Mayhew's thesis. In this chapter, Ferejohn's evidence is examined within the framework of a simultaneous equation model. I conclude that Mayhew's thesis, although bloodied by Ferejohn's attack, is still very much alive. Chapter 5 Leftist Ideological Shifts in Arab Contemporary Politics: A Spatial Theory Approach This chapter presents a formal model of some aspects of leftist ideological shifts in contemporary Arab politics. In particular it focuses on the effects of information costs and the cost of ideological vagueness on the competitive parties of the left. A spatial model is used to examine analytically an observation originally advanced by the Baath Arab Socialist party. This observation states that both the cost of vagueness and the inability to meet the high information costs inherent to an articulate ideology may have been the factors which caused the adoption of Marxism Leninism by some leftist groups. Certain reasonable assumptions generated results consistent with the Baath observation. Chapter 6 The Effect of a Random Planning Horizon on Production and Investment for Petroleum Reservoir -- A Note on Kuller's and Cumming's Model There have been several formulations of models for crude oil production which tried to identify the elements of user cost and show their effect on production and investment decisions. In this chapter, previous results are extended by incorporating the uncertainty regarding the date of arrival of the backstop technology in the model. This uncertainty adds a new element to the user cost identified previously and is shown to affect the production and investment decisions.</p