Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Major hepatectomy for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma or colorectal liver metastases. Are we talking about the same story?

Introduction: Major hepatectomy (MH) is often needed in the curative management of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (IHCC) and colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). While similar outcomes could be expected after MH for IHCC and CRLM, outcomes seem worse after MH for IHCC. A better understanding of such differences might help improving perioperative outcomes but comprehensive analysis are lacking. Methods: All patients undergoing curative intent MH for IHCC or CRLM from 2003 to 2009 were included from two dedicated multi-institutional datasets. Preoperative management and short-term outcomes after MH were first compared. Independent predictors of postoperative mortality and morbidity were identified. Results: Among 827 patients, 333 and 494 patients underwent MH for IHCC and CRLM, respectively. Preoperative portal vein embolization was more frequently performed in the CRLM group (p < 0.001). MH in the IHCC group required more extended resection (p <0.001). Postoperative mortality and severe morbidity rates were significantly higher in the IHCC group (7.2% vs. 1.2% and 29.7% vs. 11.1%, p <0.001, respectively). Main causes for mortality were postoperative liver failure and deep surgical site infection. MH for IHCC was an independent risk factor for mortality (p < 0.001) and severe morbidity (p < 0.001). After propensity score matching (212 patients in each group), the aforementioned differences regarding outcomes remained statistically significant. Conclusion: This study suggests that IHCC patients are inherently more at risk after MH as compared to CRLM patients. Considering that postoperative liver failure was the most frequent cause of death, preoperative planning might have been inadequate in the setting of IHCC while more complex/extended resections should be expected. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd, BASO similar to The Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology. All rights reserved