A production function-based policy simulation model of perennial commodity markets

In modeling the supply of perennial crops, many researchers have used the vintage-capital production approach, most recently formulated by Akiyama and Trivedi. Implementing this approach requires reliable time-series data on production, total area planted, new planted area, yields, real producer prices, and credit availability. For many producers, these data are not available, and many producers of perennial crops face substantially changed incentive structures in countries undergoing structural adjustment. So, the authors developed an alternative method for modeling perennial crop subsectors. It takes into account past investment decisions and other dynamics of supply response, captures all important features of the market, should be consistent with economic theory, should require minimal data, and should not rely on time-series data or econometric estimates. This production function-based model uses a Cobb-Douglas production function. The model is based on partial equilibrium and does not take into account the impact on individual subsectors on such aggregate variables as wages and interest rates. The authors apply the model to the coffee sector in Nigeria, which is undergoing major reform, but the model can be applied - with only minor modifications - to other types of crops, in other countries. The model results show the following. Policy variables greatly influence the growth and development of the sector. A 10 percent increase in the price of coffee, for example, would increase demand for labor 19 percent and that for fertilizer 29 percent and would expand the area of coffee investment 17 percent. The sector would substantially benefit from greater labor efficiency, lower real interest rates, and a reduction in the real value of the cordoba against the U.S. dollar. Nicaragua could increase its production and exports substantially by the end of the decade, if there were a favorable economic climate - especially in terms of international prices and investment incentives.Economic Theory&Research,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Banks&Banking Reform,Consumption,Environmental Economics&Policies

Supernova Asymmetries

All core collapse supernovae are strongly aspherical. The "Bochum event," with velocity components displaced symmetrically about the principal H$\alpha$ line, strongly suggests that SN 1987A was a bi-polar rather than a uni-polar explosion. While there is a general tendency to display a single prominant axis in images and spectropolarimetry, there is also growing evidence for frequent departures from axisymmetry. There are various mechanisms that might contribute to large scale departures from spherical symmetry: jet-induced processes, the spherical shock accretion instability (SASI) and associated phenomena, and non-axisymmetric instabilities (NAXI). The MRI gives inevitable production of large toroidal magnetic fields. In sum: no $\Omega$ without B. The role of magnetic fields, non-axisymmetric instabilities, and of the de-leptonization phase are discussed.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, to be published in the proceedings of the conference "Supernova 1987A: 20 Years After" Aspen, 200

Different Power-law Indices in the Frequency Distributions of Flares with and without Coronal Mass Ejections

We investigated the frequency distributions of flares with and without coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as a function of flare parameters (peak flux, fluence, and duration of soft X-ray flares). We used CMEs observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission and soft X-ray flares (C3.2 and above) observed by the GOES satellites during 1996 to 2005. We found that the distributions obey a power-law of the form: dN/dX~X^-alpha, where X is a flare parameter and dN is the number of events recorded within the interval [X, X+dX]. For the flares with (without) CMEs, we obtained the power-law index alpha=1.98+-0.05 (alpha=2.52+-0.03) for the peak flux, alpha=1.79+-0.05 (alpha=2.47+-0.11) for the fluence, and alpha=2.49+-0.11 (alpha=3.22+-0.15) for the duration. The power-law indices for flares without CMEs are steeper than those for flares with CMEs. The larger power-law index for flares without CMEs supports the possibility that nanoflares contribute to coronal heating.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures embedded, accepted for publication in ApJ

How policy changes affected cocoa sectors in sub-Saharan African countries

Structural adjustment programs in sub-Saharan African countries in the 1980s removed trade restrictions, price controls, and export taxes and abolished state-owned commodity marketing bodies. The authors studied the effects of these policy changes on the coca sector, using a global econometric model specifying major producer countries through the vintage-capital approach. They focused on Ghana and Nigeria (major cocoa producers that undertook structural adjustment programs), as well as on Cote d'Ivoire and Cameroon. The impact on world cocoa prices of structural adjustment programs in Ghana and Nigeria was relatively small. The results imply that, without structural adjustment programs in Ghana and Nigeria, world cocoa prices in the late 1980s would have been about US$1,060/ton (in 1985 constant dollars), instead of US$850/ton. So, without the structural adjustment programs, 1989-90 world prices in real terms would have been about 45 percent lower than they were in the early 1980s, compared with an actual decline of 55 percent. Much more important in depressing prices in this period was the rapid increase in production in Brazil, Cote d'Ivoire, Indonesia, and Malaysia (which together accounted for about 75 percent of the increased production in that decade). That increased production resulted largely from tree planting in response to higher world cocoa prices in the late 1970s -- and subsequent increases in productivity. The results of counterfactual simulations suggest that cocoa production in Ghana would have been at almost half its 1989-90 level if Ghana had not implemented its structural adjustment program. The producers'surplus would have been lower without the program, and the government's budget deficit would have been unsustainable. The effects of the structural adjustment program in Nigeria are mixed. The simulation results show lower cocoa production but higher government revenue without the reforms. But the program was evaluated only three years after the reforms, so the full effects on production had not been realized. The structural adjustment programs in Ghana and Nigeria had a negative effect on other cocoa-producing countries in sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world -- producing an estimated loss (in government revenue from cocoa exports and producer surplus) of about 15 percent in other sub-Saharan African countries. Results show that both Cote d'Ivoire and Cameroon would have been better off had they set export taxes at a higher level (closer to an estimated"optimal"level) at the same time that they depreciated the real exchange rate. Producer prices could have been sustained at their earlier higher level, or even raised, without hurting government revenues. Structural adjustment programs in Ghana and Nigeria had a negative effect on producers in other countries, but not adopting such policies would have been economically irrational, contend the authors.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Economic Stabilization,Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access

Coarsening Dynamics of Granular Heaplets in Tapped Granular Layers

A semi-continuum model is introduced to study the dynamics of the formation of granular heaplets in tapped granular layers. By taking into account the energy dissipation of collisions and screening effects due to avalanches, this model is able to reproduce qualitatively the pattern of these heaplets. Our simulations show that the granular heaplets are characterised by an effective surface tension which depends on the magnitude of the tapping intensity. Also, we observe that there is a coarsening effect in that the average size of the heaplets, V grows as the number of taps k increases. The growth law at intermediate times can be fitted by a scaling function V ~ k^z but the range of validity of the power law is limited by size effects. The growth exponent z appears to diverge as the tapping intensity is increased.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Vibration isolation system with a compact damping system for power recycling mirrors of KAGRA

A vibration isolation system called the Type-Bp system used for power recycling mirrors has been developed for KAGRA, the interferometric gravitational-wave observatory in Japan. A suspension of the Type-Bp system passively isolates an optic from seismic vibration using three main pendulum stages equipped with two vertical vibration isolation systems. A compact reaction mass around each of the main stages allows for achieving sufficient damping performance with a simple feedback as well as vibration isolation ratio. Three Type-Bp systems were installed in KAGRA, and were proved to satisfy the requirements on the damping performance, and also on estimated residual displacement of the optics

BMB activity defines refractory and competent hair follicle populations during the propagation of regenerative waves

n/

Spatial Relationship between Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections

We report on the spatial relationship between solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed during 1996-2005 inclusive. We identified 496 flare-CME pairs considering limb flares (distance from central meridian > 45 deg) with soft X-ray flare size > C3 level. The CMEs were detected by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). We investigated the flare positions with respect to the CME span for the events with X-class, M-class, and C-class flares separately. It is found that the most frequent flare site is at the center of the CME span for all the three classes, but that frequency is different for the different classes. Many X-class flares often lie at the center of the associated CME, while C-class flares widely spread to the outside of the CME span. The former is different from previous studies, which concluded that no preferred flare site exists. We compared our result with the previous studies and conclude that the long-term LASCO observation enabled us to obtain the detailed spatial relation between flares and CMEs. Our finding calls for a closer flare-CME relationship and supports eruption models typified by the CSHKP magnetic reconnection model.Comment: 7 pages; 4 figures; Accepted by the Astrophysical Journa