Modelling of residential heat decarbonisation pathways in the republic of Kazakhstan

Globally, buildings account for one third of final energy consumption and are a significant source of CO2 emissions. Concerns with unsustainable use of energy in buildings, growing greenhouse gases emissions and energy poverty challenges all require effective planning, strategies and actions from policy makers. Energy systems models together with scenario analysis are widely applied tools to aid decision making in energy planning and in the assessments of technology pathways. Studies and analyses using energy systems models tend to focus on energy transition pathways and neglect energy poverty, energy affordability and local pollution. In addition, they generally do not simultaneously incorporate spatial, building type and urban/rural detail. This thesis addresses this gap, by introducing the first sub-nationally disaggregated energy system model with regional detail, representation of the building types (detached, flat) urban/rural disaggregation, and analysis of energy poverty..

Investigating the energy transition to a coal free residential sector in Kazakhstan using a regionally disaggregated energy systems model

Problems with unsustainable use of energy by households and lack of access to energy infrastructure require effective actions from the policy makers. Energy system models can usefully analyze future residential sector energy pathways "within" the full energy system. However, few energy system models have been developed with disaggregated sub-national regional detail, building type and urban/rural divisions. This paper addresses this key gap. Disaggregating the residential sector by building categories allows improved representation of the range of energy transition options across building categories. We incorporated a novel detailed building stock module into a 16-region TIMES energy systems model for Kazakhstan, using statistical data on the housing stock and building energy audit reports. We then explore the introduction of a coal ban and use scenario analysis to identify the most cost-effective heating technologies for the different regions and different building types. Implications of the residential sector policies to the supply side energy infrastructure were also quantified. The energy transition (from solid fuels to cleaner alternatives) is rarely achievable without Government intervention, therefore scenarios with ban on coal use and clean energy technology subsidies (micro-CHP, heat pumps and solar space heaters) have been investigated in this study. The results indicate that in rural areas networked gas (for detached households) and district heating (for flats) are more economically viable substitutes to coal, even with subsidies offered for clean technologies. In the scenario with the constraint on gas network expansion and clean technology subsidies, there is a wide utilization of heat pumps in detached rural houses. Subsidies for retrofit measures are effective with wide utilization, especially in the areas affected by the coal ban, with up to 76% reduction of the useful energy demand. The total amount of allocated subsidies for clean technologies amounted for up to 32% and 8% of the current state social and health care expenditures. A coal ban in the residential sector is estimated to achieve emissions reductions for PM2.5 and CO of 92% and 95%, respectively (compared to the base year level), even accounting for emissions from the supply side (power plants, heat plants)

Modelling of residential heat decarbonisation pathways in the republic of Kazakhstan

Globally, buildings account for one third of final energy consumption and are a significant source of CO2 emissions. Concerns with unsustainable use of energy in buildings, growing greenhouse gases emissions and energy poverty challenges all require effective planning, strategies and actions from policy makers. Energy systems models together with scenario analysis are widely applied tools to aid decision making in energy planning and in the assessments of technology pathways. Studies and analyses using energy systems models tend to focus on energy transition pathways and neglect energy poverty, energy affordability and local pollution. In addition, they generally do not simultaneously incorporate spatial, building type and urban/rural detail. This thesis addresses this gap, by introducing the first sub-nationally disaggregated energy system model with regional detail, representation of the building types (detached, flat) urban/rural disaggregation, and analysis of energy poverty..

Air Quality and Industrial Emissions in the Cities of Kazakhstan

Industrial emissions are of major concern, especially in developing countries. Hence, there is a need for studies that investigate the trends in industrial emissions in these countries. The purpose of this study is to discuss trends in industrial emissions in Kazakhstan and the air pollution level in its industrial cities. Data on emission limit values from the permitting documents of twenty-one power plants and nine metallurgical enterprises of Kazakhstan were analyzed. Eight cities (out of fourteen) had a “high” level of atmospheric air pollution according to the Air Pollution Index in 2019. Most of the considered enterprises increased their emission limit values compared to the previous permitting period. In some cities there is a lack of monitoring stations, indicating the need for improving the spatial coverage of the air quality monitoring network in the industrial cities of Kazakhstan. The location of industrial plants far outside the cities could reduce the exposure of the urban population to air pollution. Kazakhstan urgently needs to adopt stringent emissions standards for coal-fired power plants and heavy industrial plants. The national air quality standards and definitions of air pollutants need to be updated based on the latest scientific knowledge

Air Quality and Industrial Emissions in the Cities of Kazakhstan

Industrial emissions are of major concern, especially in developing countries. Hence, there is a need for studies that investigate the trends in industrial emissions in these countries. The purpose of this study is to discuss trends in industrial emissions in Kazakhstan and the air pollution level in its industrial cities. Data on emission limit values from the permitting documents of twenty-one power plants and nine metallurgical enterprises of Kazakhstan were analyzed. Eight cities (out of fourteen) had a “high” level of atmospheric air pollution according to the Air Pollution Index in 2019. Most of the considered enterprises increased their emission limit values compared to the previous permitting period. In some cities there is a lack of monitoring stations, indicating the need for improving the spatial coverage of the air quality monitoring network in the industrial cities of Kazakhstan. The location of industrial plants far outside the cities could reduce the exposure of the urban population to air pollution. Kazakhstan urgently needs to adopt stringent emissions standards for coal-fired power plants and heavy industrial plants. The national air quality standards and definitions of air pollutants need to be updated based on the latest scientific knowledge

Coal use for residential heating: Patterns, health implications and lessons learned

Abstract Residential coal consumption has decreased significantly since 1990 in most developed and developing countries, due to fuel switching. However, there are still countries with a high proportion of households using coal for heating purposes, in some cases with increasing coal consumption trends. This review discusses the patterns of the coal use, associated emissions, the negative impacts on health, and the policies and interventions used to limit the negative effects of high residential coal use. The patterns of residential coal use in those selected countries that account for 86% of global residential coal consumption are reviewed. Interventions in these selected countries have been accessed. It appears that the World Health Organization (WHO) may substantially underestimate the health impacts in these countries, particularly with respect to the burden of disease from household air pollution from using solid fuel for cooking as the indicator of exposure. The alternative to the WHO approach uses International Energy Agency (IEA) data because it provides the energy consumption for each country by fuel type and all household end-uses in a consistent framework. National survey data on energy and emissions also provides better metrics of exposure. Most of the assessed studies in developed countries focused on ambient air pollution, while in developing countries indoor air pollution was given primary attention (except for Mongolia). The PM concentrations within households using coal in Ireland, Mongolia, and China were compared and substantial differences were found as a result of differences in ventilation, stove design, fuel quality and stove maintenance and operation. Policy measures such as the large stove switching programs in China and Mongolia were mostly successful, but did not fully reach desired targets because of several factors. One of these key factors was the variability of human behavior and its response to the policy stimuli. Important barriers to the transition to cleaner energy alternatives are relatively low coal prices coupled with its level of supply security. Health benefits, however, are generally higher than the abatement costs in the most polluted areas, and support from governments for cleaner energy, that includes a focus on health, can be feasible and effective if carefully designed and targeted

THE EFFECTS OF COVID-19-RELATED DRIVING RESTRICTIONS ON AIR QUALITY IN AN INDUSTRIAL CITY

To slow the spread of COVID-19, the state of emergency was announced in Kazakhstan on March 16, 2020. Ust-Kamenogorsk instituted COVID-19 lockdown measures on April 2, 2020. The restrictions reduced the flow of traffic in the city but did not have a major impact on the large industries and power plants. In the areas with a complex profile of emission sources, traffic restriction measures alone may hardly tackle serious air pollution. This natural experiment allowed us to test how the reduction in transport movement affects air quality in Ust-Kamenogorsk, as there is a tendency to hold transport as being a major cause of air pollution in Ust-Kamenogorsk. This study analyzes concentrations of four major air pollutants and meteorological parameters in Ust-Kamenogorsk from March 1 to May 15 in 2016–2020. Using the fixed effects model, we find that restrictions have decreased the levels of CO by 21–23 percent, increased the levels of TSP by 13–21 percent, and had no significant effect on SO2 and NO2 concentrations in the city. It implies that heavy pollution in the city with SO2, NO2, TSP are mainly caused by non-transportrelated sources

PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH PM2.5 CONCENTRATIONS IN ALMATY, KAZAKHSTAN

Air pollution is a severe problem in Almaty (Kazakhstan), especially during the cold half of the year (October-March). Almaty is one of the most polluted cities in Kazakhstan and Central Asia, with average winter PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 µm) concentration of 94.0 µg m–3 . High pollution in the wintertime in Almaty could be caused by emissions from coal combustion for power and heat generation (at power plants and small-scale heating), which could also be worsened by poor dispersion of air pollutants due to certain atmospheric conditions. Based on one-year radiosonde data, the characteristics of the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and its effect on ground-level PM2.5 concentrations in Almaty were analyzed in this study using the bulk Richardson number (Ri) and potential temperature increase (PT) methods. During an annual cycle, the concentrations of PM2.5 were highest in the winter months when the daily concentrations were above 100 µg m–3 for 38 days during this period. The results show a clear negative relationship between the daily average PM2.5 concentrations and PBLH at 12.00 UTС. For instance, high PM2.5 concentrations in winter months (94.0 µg m–3 ) corresponded to a lower PBLH (393 m), and low PM2.5 concentrations in summer months (9.9 µg m–3 ) corresponded to a higher PBLH (1970 m). During the cold half of the year, the top 20% of PM2.5 concentrations were associated with a lower PBLH and calm wind conditions (lower average wind speeds within the PBL and a lower ventilation coefficient). The results show that PBLH variations during the year have a significant effect on PM2.5 concentrations; however, further analysis is needed with a more substantial amount of observational data to understand this interaction further and to investigate the role of synoptic processes that lead to a shallow PBLH