Garlic consumption in relation to colorectal cancer risk and to alterations of blood bacterial DNA

PURPOSE: Garlic consumption has been inversely associated to intestinal adenoma (IA) and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, although evidence is not consistent. Gut microbiota has been implied in CRC pathogenesis and is also influenced by garlic consumption. We analyzed whether dietary garlic influence CRC risk and bacterial DNA in blood. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study in Italy involving 100 incident CRC cases, 100 IA and 100 healthy controls matched by center, sex and age. We used a validated food frequency questionnaire to assess dietary habits and garlic consumption. Blood bacterial DNA profile was estimated using qPCR and16S rRNA gene profiling. We derived odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of IA and CRC according to garlic consumption from multiple conditional logistic regression. We used Mann-Whitney and chi-square tests to evaluate taxa differences in abundance and prevalence. RESULTS: The OR of CRC for medium/high versus low/null garlic consumption was 0.27 (95% CI = 0.11-0.66). Differences in garlic consumption were found for selected blood bacterial taxa. Medium/high garlic consumption was associated to an increase of Corynebacteriales order, Nocardiaceae family and Rhodococcus genus, and to a decrease of Family XI and Finegoldia genus. CONCLUSIONS: The study adds data on the protective effect of dietary garlic on CRC risk. Moreover, it supports evidence of a translocation of bacterial material to bloodstream and corroborates the hypothesis of a diet-microbiota axis as a mechanism behind the role of garlic in CRC prevention

Performance of the model for end-stage liver disease score for mortality prediction and the potential role of etiology

Bakground & aims Although discrimination of the model for end stage liver disease (MELD) is generally considered acceptable, its calibration is still unclear. In a validation study, we assessed the discrimination and calibration performance of 3 versions of the model: original MELD-TIPS, used to predict survival after transjugular intra-hepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS); classic MELD-Mayo; MELD-UNOS, used by United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS). Recalibration and model updating were also explored. Methods 776 patients submitted to elective TIPS (TIPS cohort), and 445 unselected patients (non-TIPS cohort) were included. Three, 6 and 12-month mortality predictions were calculated by the 3 MELD versions: discrimination was assessed by c-statistics and calibration by comparing deciles of predicted and observed risks. Cox and Fine and Grey models were used for recalibration and prognostic analyses. Results Major patient characteristics in TIPS/non-TIPS cohorts were: viral etiology 402/188, alcoholic 185/130, NASH 65/33; mean follow-up± SD 25±9/19±21months; 3-6-12 month mortality were respectively, 57-102-142/31-47-99. C-statistics ranged from 0.66 to 0.72 in TIPS and 0.66 to 0.76 in non-TIPS cohorts across prediction times and scores. A post-hoc analysis revealed worse c-statistics in non-viral cirrhosis with more pronounced and significant worsening in non-TIPS cohort. Calibration was acceptable with MELD-TIPS but largely unsatisfactory with MELD-Mayo and -UNOS whose performance improved much after recalibration. A prognostic analysis showed that age, albumin, and TIPS indication might be used for a MELD updating. Conclusions In this validation study the MELD performance was largely unsatisfactory, particularly in non-viral cirrhosis. MELD recalibration and candidate variables for a MELD updating are proposed. Lay summary While discrimination performance of the Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is credited to be fair to good, its calibration, the correspondence of observed to predicted mortality, is still unsettled. We found that application of 3 different versions of the MELD in two independent cirrhosis cohorts yielded largely imprecise mortality predictions particularly in non-viral cirrhosis and propose a validated model recalibration. Candidate variables for a MELD updating are proposed