Precision in Insurance Forecasting: Enhancing Potential with Ensemble and Combination Models based on the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Egyptian Insurance Industry

Enhancing the precision of retention ratio predictions holds profound significance for insurance industry decision-makers and those vested in advancing insurance services. Precision helps insurance companies navigate inflationary pressures and evaluate underwriting profitability, enabling reliable prognoses of future underwriting gains. As far as we know, although there have been multiple attempts to construct a predictive model for retention ratio, none of these attempts have used combining models or studied the Egyptian market. Therefore, this study contributes significantly to this developing field by providing combining models, which combined statistical time series models such as Exponential Smoothing (ES), and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), with Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Two different types of combinations are employed with these models. Furthermore, the study introduces three ensemble models designed for the purpose of predicting the retention ratio within the Egyptian insurance market. Dataset was carefully gathered from the EFSA’s annual reports, focused on the property-liability insurance sector within the Egyptian insurance market and covers the time period from 1989 to 2021. Next, the proposed models are assessed employing well-established statistical assessment metrics, namely, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), R Square (R2), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results show that combining and ensemble methods improve predicted accuracy. A multi-linear regression-based ensemble model that combines ARIMA, ES, and ANFIS models outperforms both single and combined models in robustness. The article concludes that the insurance industry can greatly benefit from modern predictive methods to make sound decisions.</p

Comparison of two patients both imaged 1 hour after symptom onset with a proximal occlusion of the middle cerebral artery and a Higashida score of 2 on source DSC MRI.

<p>Patient A had a left-sided stroke with NIHSS at admission of 12, an initial infarct volume of 3.8ml, perfusion deficit of 200ml on Tmax4s and 108ml on CBF with a CBF/Tmax4s volume ratio of 0.54. The final infarct size was 15.5ml. Patient B had a right-sided stroke with NIHSS at admission of 19, an initial infarct volume of 5.8ml, perfusion deficit of 87ml on Tmax4s and 84ml on CBF with a CBF/Tmax4s volume ratio of 0.96. The final infarct size was 208ml.</p

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shown for the two CBF/Tmax volume ratios illustrating the performance of various cut-offs to identify patients with poor radiological outcome.

<p>Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shown for the two CBF/Tmax volume ratios illustrating the performance of various cut-offs to identify patients with poor radiological outcome.</p

Patient demographics and results.

<p>Patient demographics and results.</p

Scatter plot of the relationship between CBF/Tmax4s volume ratio, infarct growth and final infarct size, additionally divided based on type of vessel occlusion.

<p>Scatter plot of the relationship between CBF/Tmax4s volume ratio, infarct growth and final infarct size, additionally divided based on type of vessel occlusion.</p

Synthesis, Biological Evaluation, and Radioiodination of Halogenated <i>closo</i>-Carboranylthymidine Analogues

The synthesis and initial biological evaluation of 3-carboranylthymidine analogues (3CTAs) that are (radio)­halogenated at the <i>closo</i>-carborane cluster are described. Radiohalogenated 3CTAs have the potential to be used in the radiotherapy and imaging of cancer because they may be selectively entrapped in tumor cells through monophosphorylation by human thymidine kinase 1 (hTK1). Two strategies for the synthesis of a ¹²⁷I-labeled form of a specific 3CTA, previously designated as <b>N5</b>, are described: (1) direct iodination of <b>N5</b> with iodine monochloride and aluminum chloride to obtain <b>N5-¹²⁷I</b> and (2) initial monoiodination of <i>o</i>-carborane to 9-iodo-<i>o</i>-carborane followed by its functionalization to <b>N5-¹²⁷I</b>. The former strategy produced <b>N5-¹²⁷I</b> in low yields along with di-, tri-, and tetraiodinated <b>N5</b> as well as decomposition products, whereas the latter method produced only <b>N5-¹²⁷I</b> in high yields. <b>N5-¹²⁷I</b> was subjected to nucleophilic halogen- and isotope-exchange reactions using Na^79/81Br and Na¹²⁵I, respectively, in the presence of Herrmann’s catalyst to obtain <b>N5-^79/81Br</b> and <b>N5-¹²⁵I</b>, respectively. Two intermediate products formed using the second strategy, 1-(<i>tert</i>-butyldimethylsilyl)-9-iodo-<i>o</i>-carborane and 1-(<i>tert</i>-butyldimethylsilyl)-12-iodo-<i>o</i>-carborane, were subjected to X-ray diffraction studies to confirm that substitution at a single carbon atom of 9-iodo-<i>o</i>-carborane resulted in the formation of two structural isomers. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of halogen- and isotope-exchange reactions of B-halocarboranes that have been conjugated to a complex biomolecule. Human TK1 phosphorylation rates of <b>N5</b>, <b>N5-¹²⁷I</b>, and <b>N5-^79/81Br</b> ranged from 38.0% to 29.6% relative to that of thymidine, the endogenous hTK1 substrate. The in vitro uptake of <b>N5</b>, <b>N5-¹²⁷I</b>, and <b>N5-^79/81Br</b> in L929 TK1­(+) cells was 2.0, 1.8, and 1.4 times greater than that in L929 TK1(−) cells

2′-Chloro,2′-fluoro Ribonucleotide Prodrugs with Potent Pan-genotypic Activity against Hepatitis C Virus Replication in Culture

Pan-genotypic nucleoside HCV inhibitors display a high genetic barrier to drug resistance and are the preferred direct-acting agents to achieve complete sustained virologic response in humans. Herein, we report, the discovery of a β-d-2′-Cl,2′-F-uridine phosphoramidate nucleotide <b>16</b>, as a nontoxic pan-genotypic anti-HCV agent. Phosphoramidate <b>16</b> in its 5′-triphosphate form specifically inhibited HCV NS5B polymerase with no marked inhibition of human polymerases and cellular mitochondrial RNA polymerase. Studies on the intracellular half-life of phosphoramidate <b>16</b>-TP in live cells demonstrated favorable half-life of 11.6 h, suggesting once-a-day dosing. Stability in human blood and favorable metabolism in human intestinal microsomes and liver microsomes make phosphoramidate <b>16</b> a prospective candidate for further studies to establish its potential value as a new anti-HCV agent