Economic Growth, Inflation, and Monetary Policy in Pakistan: Preliminary Empirical Estimates

There is a growing debate in the emerging market on the choice of an appropriate monetary or exchange rate policy that could lead to a sustainable economic growth. Inflation targeting has become one of these policy alternatives and has recently been implemented in some of the emerging markets in Asia and Latin America. Given the recent remarkable economic performance of the Pakistan, this issue has also been discussed at various policy forums in Pakistan. An important pre-condition for the success of inflation-targeting is to identify the leading indicators of inflation and develop a model to reasonably forecast inflation. This is the main objective of this paper. Besides an overview of the experience, the main focus of the paper is to provide some preliminary empirical estimates for inflation equation and its causal relationship with other macroeconomic variables.

Replacing conventional energy sources of electricity with solar energy in the UK and Iraq using statistical inference with hypothesis testing

Solar power represents a vast resource which could, in principle meet the world’s needs for lowcarbon power generation many times over. Recent growth in the use of photovoltaic (PV) technology (of around 40% per year) and rapid reduction in its cost (20% per doubling of capacity) has demonstrated the potential of solar power to deliver on a large scale. Energy is a vital resource required for the operation of any business. Currently, the vast majority of businesses use electricity derived for non-renewable fossil fuels, which are expected to run out at its current rate of expenditure and causing substantial environmental damage threatening the future generations. In the UK and Iraq if the current energy source used by small and medium enterprises (SME’s) could be replaced by solar energy then damage to the environment can be prevented. Solar cells involve harnessing the energy from the sun to generate electricity and as such the amount of sunlight hours or solar insulation available in the country is of utmost importance. In this study a methodology has been developed to compare a model micro-business in the UK and Northern Iraq. The comparison shows that using statistically inference the different regions (latitudinally) in Northern Iraq have a reasonable constant supply of solar insulation compared with the U.K which shows that there is more variation and less solar insulation in the more northern regions of the country. Therefore, it is more feasible to replace the existing non-renewable fossil fuel sources with solar cells in all regions of Iraq than the U.K which requires further cost benefit considerations

Financial Market Linkages in South Asia: Evidence Using a Multivariate GARCH Model

Regional integration of the financial markets is the building-block for globalisation and internationalisation. Many regions around the world have recently been engaged in such regional economic and financial market integration to form the basis of a more complex international financial system. The recent developments in South Asia and the revived activities under the SAARC forum have raised some hopes for a more sustained economic development in the regional economies. It is timely, therefore, to investigate the prospects of regional financial market integration in the South Asian region. In this perspective, this paper analyses the currency market integration within four South Asian countries and with their major trading partners. For empirical estimation, we use data from a sample of four South Asian countries, namely, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. The paper examines the nature of the causal relationship between exchange rates in the sample countries and their major trading partners. Both the short-run and the long-run causal relationships between these markets are examined using high-frequency data of exchange rates. The paper also explores whether the causal linkages between these variables are of similar intensity across the country and across the market. The nature of the mean and volatility transmission between stock and foreign exchange markets is explored through multivariate exponential GARCH model, which is capable of capturing asymmetries in the volatility transmission mechanism in both the short run and the long run within a co-integration framework. The departing feature of this approach is that it captures both linear and non-linear relationships, which are linked through second order moments. We believe that this to be fresh research on this issue for South Asia and it may have important implications for any future policy for the region.Financial Market, South Asia, GARCH Model

Corporate Governance for Banks in Pakistan: Recent Developments and Regional Comparisons

The emerging economies in the South Asian region have embarked on a bold reform process to develop the banking sector. This development has improved the transparency and accountability of the banking sector because these countries focused on ‘best practice’ corporate governance for banks. In view of a rapidly developing market with a slow pace of information dissemination, adverse selection and moral hazard problems are likely to be on the rise and may need a mechanism to train and discipline bank management. It was, therefore timely for the central banks in the region to introduce a ‘best practice’ for the banking system as a whole. This study provides a survey of recent developments in corporate governance of the banking sector in Pakistan and a comparison of similar developments in two other regional economies, namely, India and Bangladesh. In addition to a theoretical discussion on this issue, we also provide an overview of the banking sector restructuring and highlighting important features of the codes of corporate governance established by central banks in the sample countries. In conclusion, we present a comparison of the major differences in these measures across countries and comment on the pace of these developments.Corporate Governance, Banks, Pakistan

National Finance Commission Awards in Pakistan : A Historical Perspective

This study explores the evolution of fiscal resource distribution in Pakistan. Pakistan is a federation comprising four provinces, federallyadministered areas, and the Islamabad Capital Territory. Being a central type of government, most of the revenues are collected by the centre and then redistributed vertically between the federal and the provincial governments, and horizontally among the provinces. Provinces then also redistribute revenues among lower tiers of the government, through a revenue-sharing formula. A thorough look at the history indicates that this process has been complex and has a far-reaching impact. A less systematic approach has been adopted to decentralise the financial matters. Over time, the divisible pool has expanded due to heavy reliance on indirect taxes as well as improvement in the collection. Population is the sole distribution criteria, adopted in all NFC awards from the divisible pool. This has raised friction among the provinces, necessitating inclusion of other potential variables evolved from international best practices. In addition to that, absence of technical experts and permanency of the NFC is another impediment. The NFC is supposed to provide the framework for amicable distribution of resources between the federal and the provincial governments for the joint goal of development and prosperity.NFC, Pakistan, fiscal federalism, Rule and Discretion, political economy, Population, Subventions, Doing the Business of Government

National Finance Commission Awards in Pakistan: A Historical Perspective

This study explores the evolution of fiscal resource distribution in Pakistan. Pakistan is a federation comprising four provinces, federally-administered areas, and the Islamabad Capital Territory. Being a central type of government, most of the revenues are collected by the centre and then redistributed vertically between the federal and the provincial governments, and horizontally among the provinces. Provinces then also redistribute revenues among lower tiers of the government, through a revenue-sharing formula. A thorough look at the history indicates that this process has been complex and has a far-reaching impact. A less systematic approach has been adopted to decentralise the financial matters. Over time, the divisible pool has expanded due to heavy reliance on indirect taxes as well as improvement in the collection. Population is the sole distribution criteria, adopted in all NFC awards from the divisible pool. This has raised friction among the provinces, necessitating inclusion of other potential variables evolved from international best practices. In addition to that, absence of technical experts and permanency of the NFC is another impediment. The NFC is supposed to provide the framework for amicable distribution of resources between the federal and the provincial governments for the joint goal of development and prosperity.NFC, Pakistan, Fiscal Federalism, Rule and Discretion, Political Economy, Population, Subventions, Doing the Business of Government