Identifying Risk Factors for Female Cardiovascular Disease Patients in Malaysia: A Bayesian Approach

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) includes coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease (stroke), peripheral artery disease, and atherosclerosis of the aorta. All females face the threat of CVD. But becoming aware of symptoms and signs is a great challenge since most adults at increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) have no symptoms or obvious signs especially in females. The symptoms may be identified by the assessment of their risk factors. The Bayesian approach is a specific way in dealing with this kind of problem by formalizing a priori beliefs and of combining them with the available observations. This study aimed to identify associated risk factors in CVD among female patients presenting with ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) using Bayesian logistic regression and obtain a feasible model to describe the data. A total of 874 STEMI female patients in the National Cardiovascular Disease Database-Acute Coronary Syndrome (NCVD-ACS) registry year 2006-2013 were analysed. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach was applied in the univariate and multivariate analysis. Model performance was assessed through the model calibration and discrimination. The final multivariate model of STEMI female patients consisted of six significant variables namely smoking, dyslipidaemia, myocardial infarction (MI), renal disease, Killip class and age group. Females aged 65 years and above have higher incidence of CVD and mortality is high among female patients with Killip class IV. Also, renal disease was a strong predictor of CVD mortality. Besides, performance measures for the model was considered good. Bayesian logistic regression model provided a better understanding on the associated risk factors of CVD for female patients which may help tailor prevention or treatment plans more effectively

Risk Factors of Mortality among Male Patients with Cardiovascular Disease in Malaysia Using Bayesian Analysis

Background: Identifying risk factors associated with mortality is important in providing better prognosis to patients. Consistent with that, Bayesian approach offers a great advantage where it rests on the assumption that all model parameters are random quantities and hence can incorporate prior knowledge. Therefore, we aimed to develop a reliable model to identify risk factors associated with mortality among ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) male patients using Bayesian approach. Methods: A total of 7180 STEMI male patients from the National Cardiovascular Disease Database-Acute Coronary Syndrome (NCVD-ACS) registry for the years 2006-2013 were enrolled. In the development of univariate and multivariate logistic regression model for the STEMI patients, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach was applied. The performance of the model was assessed through convergence diagnostics, overall model fit, model calibration and discrimination. Results: A set of six risk factors for cardiovascular death among STEMI male patients were identified from the Bayesian multivariate logistic model namely age, diabetes mellitus, family history of CVD, Killip class, chronic lung disease and renal disease respectively. Overall model fit, model calibration and discrimination were considered good for the proposed model. Conclusion: Bayesian risk prediction model for CVD male patients identified six risk factors associated with mortality. Among the highest risks were Killip class (OR=18.0), renal disease (2.46) and age group (OR=2.43) respectively

Efficacy and Safety of Polymer-Free Ultrathin Strut Sirolimus-Probucol Coated Drug-Eluting Stents for Chronic Total Occlusions: Insights from the Coroflex ISAR 2000 Worldwide Registry

Objective. Coronary revascularization in chronic total occlusion (CTO) is associated with improved clinical outcomes. The choice of the coronary stent is crucial in maintaining long-term vessel patency after CTO revascularization. We investigated the efficacy and safety of polymer-free ultrathin strut sirolimus-probucol coated drug-eluting stents (PF-SES) for CTO lesions. Methods. Patients with CTO lesions treated with PF-SES were identified from the prospective multicenter international ISAR 2000 registry. The primary endpoint was clinically driven target lesion revascularization (TLR) at 9 months. Secondary endpoints were 9-month major adverse cardiac events (death, myocardial infarction, or TLR) (MACE) and the occurrence of stent thrombosis. Results. A total of 111 patients with CTO lesions (n=127) were available for analysis. The 9-month clinical follow-up rate was 91%. The mean reference vessel diameter and lesion length were 2.76 mm ± 0.40 and 26.8 mm ± 13.1, respectively. The overall DAPT duration was 9.7 ± 2.8 months. Only one (1%) in-hospital MI was reported. The TLR and MACE rates at 9 months were 2% (2/101) and 5.9% (6/101), respectively. The 9-month accumulated rates of definite or probable stent thrombosis was 0% (0/101). Conclusion. Revascularizations for CTO with PF-SES are associated with low rates of TLR and MACE at 9 months with no stent thrombosis. These initial findings need to be compared with results of other new generation DES of larger studies

Circulating MicroRNAs in Young Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) hold great potential as novel diagnostic markers for acute coronary syndrome (ACS). This study sought to identify plasma miRNAs that are differentially expressed in young ACS patients (mean age of 38.5 ± 4.3 years) and evaluate their diagnostic potentials. Small RNA sequencing (sRNA-seq) was used to profile plasma miRNAs. Discriminatory power of the miRNAs was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Thirteen up-regulated and 16 down-regulated miRNAs were identified in young ACS patients. Quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) validation showed miR-183-5p was significantly up-regulated (8-fold) in ACS patients with non-ST-segment elevated myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) whereas miR-134-5p, miR-15a-5p, and let-7i-5p were significantly down-regulated (5-fold, 7-fold and 3.5-fold, respectively) in patients with ST-segment elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI), compared to the healthy controls. MiR-183-5p had a high discriminatory power to differentiate NSTEMI patients from healthy controls (area under the curve (AUC) of ROC = 0.917). The discriminatory power for STEMI patients was highest with let-7i-5p (AUC = 0.833) followed by miR-134-5p and miR-15a-5p and this further improved (AUC = 0.935) with the three miRNAs combination. Plasma miR-183-5p, miR-134-5p, miR-15a-5p and let-7i-5p are deregulated in STEMI and NSTEMI and could be potentially used to discriminate the two ACS forms

Predictors on outcomes of cardiovascular disease of male patients in Malaysia using Bayesian network analysis

Objectives Despite extensive advances in medical and surgical treatment, cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of mortality worldwide. Identifying the significant predictors will help clinicians with the prognosis of the disease and patient management. This study aims to identify and interpret the dependence structure between the predictors and health outcomes of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) male patients in Malaysian setting.Design Retrospective study.Setting Malaysian National Cardiovascular Disease Database-Acute Coronary Syndrome (NCVD-ACS) registry years 2006–2013, which consists of 18 hospitals across the country.Participants 7180 male patients diagnosed with STEMI from the NCVD-ACS registry.Primary and secondary outcome measures A graphical model based on the Bayesian network (BN) approach has been considered. A bootstrap resampling approach was integrated into the structural learning algorithm to estimate probabilistic relations between the studied features that have the strongest influence and support.Results The relationships between 16 features in the domain of CVD were visualised. From the bootstrap resampling approach, out of 250, only 25 arcs are significant (strength value ≥0.85 and the direction value ≥0.50). Age group, Killip class and renal disease were classified as the key predictors in the BN model for male patients as they were the most influential variables directly connected to the outcome, which is the patient status. Widespread probabilistic associations between the key predictors and the remaining variables were observed in the network structure. High likelihood values are observed for patient status variable stated alive (93.8%), Killip class I on presentation (66.8%), patient younger than 65 (81.1%), smoker patient (77.2%) and ethnic Malay (59.2%). The BN model has been shown to have good predictive performance.Conclusions The data visualisation analysis can be a powerful tool to understand the relationships between the CVD prognostic variables and can be useful to clinicians

A comparison between Bayesian and frequentist approach in the analysis of risk factors for female cardiovascular disease patients in Malaysia

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the number one killer among women in Malaysia and globally, with over two million deaths each year. In this study, two modelling approaches namely Bayesian approach and frequentist approach were considered to identify associated risk factors in CVD among female patients presenting with ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) and to obtain feasible model to fit the data. Comparisons were made to find the best model. A total of 874 STEMI female patients from 18 participating hospitals across Malaysia in the National Cardiovascular Disease Database-Acute Coronary Syndrome (NCVD-ACS) registry year 2006-2013 were analysed. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed for both Bayesian and frequentist approaches. Six variables namely smoking, dyslipidaemia, myocardial infarction (MI), renal disease, Killip class and age group were found to be significant at the multivariate analysis. The standard errors obtained from the Bayesian approach were much smaller than the frequentist approach. Also, the model fit using Bayesian approach was much better than the frequentist as the deviance value produced by the Bayesian approach was smaller. The Bayesian analysis provides a better alternative to the frequentist approach in the analysis of the risk factors associated with mortality among female CVD patients

Trends and variations in the prescribing of secondary preventative cardiovascular therapies for non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) in Malaysia

Purpose: Information is lacking on prescribing of preventative cardiovascular pharmacotherapies for patients with non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) in the Asian region. This study examined the prescribing rate of these pharmacotherapies, comparing NSTEMI to STEMI, and variations across demographics and clinical factors within the NSTEMI group in the multi-ethnic Malaysian population. Methods: This is a retrospective analysis of the Malaysian National Cardiovascular Disease Database-Acute Coronary Syndrome registry from year 2006 to 2013 (n = 30,873). On-discharge pharmacotherapies examined were aspirin, ADP-antagonists, statins, ACE-inhibitors, angiotensin-II-receptor blockers, and beta-blockers. Multivariate logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratio of receiving individual pharmacotherapies according to patients’ characteristics in NSTEMI patients (n = 11,390). Results: Prescribing rates for cardiovascular pharmacotherapies had significantly increased especially for ADP-antagonists (76%) in NSTEMI patients. More than 85% were prescribed statins and antiplatelets but rates remained significantly lower compared to STEMI. Women and those over 65 years old were less likely to be prescribed these pharmacotherapies compared to men and younger NSTEMI patients. Chinese and Indians were more likely to receive selected pharmacotherapies compared to Malays (main ethnicity). Geographical variations were observed; East Malaysian (Malaysian Borneo) patients were less likely to receive these compared to Western region of Malaysian Peninsular. Underprescribing in patients with risk factors such as diabetes were observed with other co-morbidities influencing prescribing selectively. Conclusion: This study uncovers demographic and clinical variations in cardiovascular pharmacotherapies prescribing for NSTEMI. Concerted efforts by policy makers, specialty societies, and physicians are required focusing on elderly, women, Malays, East Malaysians, and high-risk patients

Secondary prevention patterns in persons with pre-existing coronary artery disease: Are we getting it right?

Background: Cardiovascular diseases are the main cause of death globally. Individuals with evidence of coronary artery disease are at increased risk of further cardiovascular events. However, with good secondary prevention, which consists broadly of lifestyle changes, medical therapy and revascularisation, this risk can be reduced. The true extent of secondary prevention in individuals who are re-admitted with a myocardial infarction in such a high-risk cohort has never been explored in Malaysia. Methods: We performed a retrospective, observational study in a tertiary hospital in 100 individuals with previously diagnosed coronary artery disease admitted with a myocardial infarction from August 2016 to February 2017. Results: Twenty-nine per cent of patients were still smoking; 15% and 47% were not taking antiplatelet or beta-blocker therapy, respectively. A further 45% and 20% of patients were not on any renin–angiotensin–aldosterone inhibition or lipid-lowering therapy, respectively. Conclusion: In our high-risk cohort, secondary prevention practices were sub-optimal. Poor physician–patient communication was frequently listed as a major factor. Simple strategies taken at various levels of care should be implemented and audited to improve these practices

In-hospital mortality of cardiogenic shock complicating ST-elevation myocardial infarction in Malaysia: a retrospective analysis of the Malaysian National Cardiovascular Database (NCVD) registry

Objectives Cardiogenic shock (CS) complicating ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) carries an extremely high mortality. The clinical pattern of this life threatening complication has never been described in Malaysian setting. This study is to investigate the incidence, clinical characteristics and outcome of STEMI patients with CS in our population. Design A retrospective analysis of STEMI patients from 18 hospitals across Malaysia contributing to the Malaysian National Cardiovascular Database-acute coronary syndrome) registry (NCVD-ACS) year 2006-2013. Participants 16 517 patients diagnosed of STEMI from 18 hospitals in Malaysia from the year 2006 to 2013. Primary outcome measures In-hospital and 30 day post-discharge mortality. Results CS complicates 10.6% of all STEMIs in this study. They had unfavourable premorbid conditions and poor outcomes. The in-hospital mortality rate was 34.1% which translates into a 7.14 times mortality risk increment compared with STEMI without CS. Intravenous thrombolysis remained as the main urgent reperfusion modality. Percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) in CS conferred a 40% risk reduction over non-invasive therapy but were only done in 33.6% of cases. Age over 65, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, chronic lung and kidney disease conferred higher risk of mortality. Conclusion Mortality rates of CS complicating STEMI in Malaysia are high. In-hospital PCI confers a 40% mortality risk reduction but the rate of PCI among our patients with CS complicating STEMI is still low. Efforts are being made to increase access to invasive therapy for these patients. © 2019 Author(s) (or their employer(s)). Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ

Different vascular healing process between bioabsorbable polymer-coated everolimus-eluting stents versus bioresorbable vascular scaffolds via optical coherence tomography and coronary angioscopy (the ENHANCE study: ENdothelial Healing Assessment with Novel Coronary tEchnology)

Recent clinical trials have raised concerns about the safety and efficacy of ABSORB™ bioresorbable vascular scaffolds (BVS). The difference in the vascular healing process between SYNERGY™ bioabsorbable polymer-coated everolimus-eluting stents (BP-EES) and BVS remains unclear. The aim of the ENHANCE study was to compare vascular healing on BP-EES versus BVS by optical coherence tomography (OCT) and coronary angioscopy (CAS) at 4- and 12-month follow-ups. This is a prospective, non-randomized, single center clinical trial. Thirteen eligible patients with multivessel disease were enrolled. BP-EES and BVS were simultaneously implanted in the same patients, but in different coronary vessels. Imaging follow-up with both OCT and CAS was completed in 11 patients at 12 months. Neointimal coverage rates were similar between the two groups based on OCT measurements. The neointimal thickness of BP-EES was significantly thicker at the 12th month than at the 4th month, whereas the neointimal thickness of BVS did not change between the measurements taken at the 4th and 12th month. Existence of intra-stent thrombus was significantly higher in the BVS group, compared to the BP-EES group. On the other hand, CAS revealed that red-thrombi and yellow-plaque were more frequently observed in BVS at 4 months and up to 12-month follow-ups than in BP-EES. These findings suggested that the evidence of instability remained up to 12 months in the vascular healing with BVS, compared to that with BP-EES. Vascular healing of the stented wall was recognized at the very early phase after BP-EES implantation. However, vascular healing with BVS was still incomplete after 12 months. © 2019, The Author(s)