Technical Progress and Early Retirement

This paper claims that technical progress induces early retirement of older workers. Technical progress erodes technology specific human capital. Since older workers have shorter career horizons, there is less incentive for them or for their employers to invest in learning how to use the new technologies. Consequently, they are more likely to stop working. We call this effect the erosion effect. Since technical progress also raises wages in the economy as a whole and since technical progress is positively correlated across sectors, this presents an opposite effect of technical progress, which we call the wage effect. Using individual and sector data, we separate the two effects and find support for our theory. JEL Specification: J24, J26, O15, O33Early Retirement, Technical Change, Human Capital, Labor For

Technical Progress and Early Retirement

This paper claims that technical progress induces early retirement of older workers. It presents a model where human capital is technology specific, so that technical progress erodes some existing human capital. This affects mostly older workers, who have a smaller incentive to learn the new technology, since their career horizon is shorter. Hence, they tend to work less. We find support to this erosion effect in HRS data, which shows that retirement and unemployment of older workers are positively related to technical progress in their sectors. Unlike the effect across sectors, the model is ambiguous about the aggregate effect of technical progress on labor supply of older workers. While in sectors with many innovations it falls due to the erosion effect, in other sectors it increases due to higher wages. To examine which effect dominates we run a time series test using US data and find that the rate of average technical progress reduces aggregate labor force participation by the old. Namely, the erosion effect dominates.This paper claims that technical progress induces early retirement of older workers. It presents a model where human capital is technology specific, so that technical progress erodes some existing human capital. This affects mostly older workers, who have a smaller incentive to learn the new technology, since their career horizon is shorter. Hence, they tend to work less. We find support to this erosion effect in HRS data, which shows that retirement and unemployment of older workers are positively related to technical progress in their sectors. Unlike the effect across sectors, the model is ambiguous about the aggregate effect of technical progress on labor supply of older workers. While in sectors with many innovations it falls due to the erosion effect, in other sectors it increases due to higher wages. To examine which effect dominates we run a time series test using US data and find that the rate of average technical progress reduces aggregate labor force participation by the old. Namely, the erosion effect dominates.Non-Refereed Working Papers / of national relevance onl

Are There Returns to the Wages of Young Men from Working While in School?

This paper examines the impacts of work experience acquired while youth were in high school (and college) on young men's wage rates during the 1980s and 1990s. Previous studies have found evidence of sizeable and persistent rates of return to working while enrolled in school, especially high school, on subsequent wage growth. Such findings may represent causal effects of having acquired work experience while still enrolled in school, but they may also be the result of failure to fully account for individual differences in young adults' capacities to acquire such skills and be productive in the work force later in life. We re-examine the robustness of previous attempts to control for unobserved heterogeneity and selectivity. We explore more general methods for dealing with dynamic forms of selection by explicitly modeling the educational and work choices of young men from age 13 through their late twenties. Using data on young men from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79), we find that the estimated returns to working while in high school or college are dramatically diminished in magnitude and statistical significance when one uses these dynamic selection methods. As such, our results indicate a decided lack of robustness to the inference about the effects of working while in school that has been drawn from previous work.

Be fruitful or multiply: On the interplay between fertility and economic development

This paper develops and estimates an empirical model of the interplay between fertility and economic development. Using panel data, this study finds that a one-percent decrease in population growth increases GDP per capita growth by more than three percent. In addition, because families with low levels of human capital choose to have more children, income per capita grows faster in developed countries than in developing countries. Finally, this study shows that the estimates of the interplay between fertility and output obtained from single cross-country regressions are biased downward because that method of estimation is unable to control for unobservable country effects and measurement errors. The neoclassical approach fails to account for these effects. The present study contributes to the now-standard growth model, and provides a better description of international differences in standards of living.Economic growth · fertility · Panel data

The Joint Dynamics of Off-Farm Employment and the Level of Farm Activity

We analyze the simultaneous determination and evolution over time of two decisions made by self-employed farm operators: off-farm work and the level of farm activity. Using a panel of Israeli farm households observed in 1981 and 1995, we estimate jointly a multinomial choice model of work activity and an endogenous switching regression of farm size that enables us to account for unobserved heterogeneity and correct for simultaneity bias. The results show that changes in farm size are closely linked to the off-farm labor decisions. In particular, we identify two different paths in the evolvement of farm families over time. Farms that expand and have a low likelihood of working off the farm follow one path, while other farms downsize their farming operation and increase their engagement in the off-farm labor market. Therefore, the distribution of farms is converging towards a bi-modal distribution, with large farms operated by full-time farmers on one extreme and smaller part-time farms on the other extreme, whose income is derived mostly from off-farm sources. These results could not have been obtained without treating the level of farm activity as endogenous to the work choice decisions