Future evolution of sandy beaches in a changing climate. The case of the balearic islands

The fate of the beaches around the world has a paramount importance as they are one the main assets for touristic activities and act as a natural barrier for coastal protection in front of marine storms. Climate change could put them at risk as sea level rise and changes in the wave characteristics may dramatically modify their shape. In this work, a new methodology has been developed to determine the flooding of sandy beaches due to changes in sea level and waves. The methodology allows a cost-effective and yet accurate estimation of the wave runup for a wide range of beach equilibrium profiles and for different seagrass coverage. This, combined with regional projections of sea level and wave evolution, has allowed a quantification of the future total water level and coastline retreat for 869 beaches across the Balearic Islands for the next decades as a function greenhouse gases emission scenario. The most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5) at the end of the century yields an averaged percentage of flooded area of 66% under mean conditions which increases up to 86% under extreme conditions. Moreover, 72 of the 869 beaches of the region would permanently disappear while 314 would be completely flooded during storm episodes. Under a moderate scenario of emissions (RCP4.5), 37 beaches would permanently disappear while 254 would disappear only during storm episodes. In both cases, the average permanent loss of beach surface at the end of the century would be larger than 50% rising over 80% during storm conditions. The results obtained for the Balearic Islands can be extrapolated to the rest of the Mediterranean as the beaches in all the region have similar characteristics and will be affected by similar changes in sea level and wave climate. These projections indicate that adaptation plans for beach areas should be put in place as soon as possible

Influence of biotic and abiotic factors of seagrass Posidonia oceanica recruitment: Identifying suitable microsites

The period between seed germination and successful seedling establishment is considered the most vulnerable phase for plant development. To better predict recruitment patterns within plant communities, it is essential to identify the abiotic constrains and biotic interactions that allow for the colonization of substrates by plant species. We evaluated which combination of factors are associated with successful survival and development of seedlings of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica in order to identify the most important microsite features acting together on recruitment success. Our results show that P. oceanica seedlings are rather specific in their environmental requirements during their first 18 months of life, when their development and survival are favored in microsites of consolidated substratum (solid rock, and to a lesser extent P. oceanica matte) covered by macroalgae (mainly crustose algae) and located in sheltered locations (with energy flux values not exceeding 7 × 10⁵ kg s⁻² m s⁻¹). After this phase, their probability of surviving becomes more independent from external conditions.En prens

Temporal evolution of temperatures in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden based on in situ observations (1958–2017)

The Red Sea holds one of the most diverse marine ecosystems in the world, although fragile and vulnerable to ocean warming. Several studies have analysed the spatio-temporal evolution of temperature in the Red Sea using satellite data, thus focusing only on the surface layer and covering the last ∼30 years. To better understand the long-term variability and trends of temperature in the whole water column, we produce a 3-D gridded temperature product (TEMPERSEA) for the period 1958–2017, based on a large number of in situ observations, covering the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. After a specific quality control, a mapping algorithm based on optimal interpolation have been applied to homogenize the data. Also, an estimate of the uncertainties of the product has been generated. The calibration of the algorithm and the uncertainty computation has been done through sensitivity experiments based on synthetic data from a realistic numerical simulation. TEMPERSEA has been compared to satellite observations of sea surface temperature for the period 1981–2017, showing good agreement especially in those periods when a reasonable number of observations were available. Also, very good agreement has been found between air temperatures and reconstructed sea temperatures in the upper 100 m for the whole period 1958–2017, enhancing confidence in the quality of the product. The product has been used to characterize the spatio-temporal variability of the temperature field in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden at different timescales (seasonal, interannual and multidecadal). Clear differences have been found between the two regions suggesting that the Red Sea variability is mainly driven by air–sea interactions, while in the Gulf of Aden the lateral advection of water plays a relevant role. Regarding long-term evolution, our results show only positive trends above 40 m depth, with maximum trends of 0.045 + 0.016 ∘C decade−1 at 15 m, and the largest negative trends at 125 m (−0.072+0.011 ∘C decade−1). Multidecadal variations have a strong impact on the trend computation and restricting them to the last 30–40 years of data can bias high the trend estimates.En prensa2,29

Assessment of Red Sea temperatures in CMIP5 models for present and future climate

The increase of the temperature in the Red Sea basin due to global warming could have a large negative effect on its marine ecosystem. Consequently, there is a growing interest, from the scientific community and public organizations, in obtaining reliable projections of the Red Sea temperatures throughout the 21st century. However, the main tool used to do climate projections, the global climate models (GCM), may not be well suited for that relatively small region. In this work we assess the skills of the CMIP5 ensemble of GCMs in reproducing different aspects of the Red Sea 3D temperature variability. The results suggest that some of the GCMs are able to reproduce the present variability at large spatial scales with accuracy comparable to medium and high-resolution hindcasts. In general, the skills of the GCMs are better inside the Red Sea than outside, in the Gulf of Aden. Based on their performance, 8 of the original ensemble of 43 GCMs have been selected to project the temperature evolution of the basin. Bearing in mind the GCM limitations, this can be an useful benchmark once the high resolution projections are available. Those models project an averaged warming at the end of the century (2080–2100) of 3.3 ±> 0.6°C and 1.6 ±> 0.4°C at the surface under the scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, respectively. In the deeper layers the warming is projected to be smaller, reaching 2.2 ±> 0.5°C and 1.5 ±> 0.3°C at 300 m. The projected warming will largely overcome the natural multidecadal variability, which could induce temporary and moderate decrease of the temperatures but not enough to fully counteract it. We have also estimated how the rise of the mean temperature could modify the characteristics of the marine heatwaves in the region. The results show that the average length of the heatwaves would increase ~15 times and the intensity of the heatwaves ~4 times with respect to the present conditions under the scenario RCP8.5 (10 time and 3.6 times, respectively, under scenario RCP4.5).En prensa4,41

MatFlood: An efficient algorithm for mapping flood extent and depth

Mapping inundation areas and flood depths is necessary for coastal and riverine management and planning. Flood maps help communicate flooding risk to affected communities and vulnerable populations and are essential for evaluating flooding impacts. Here, we introduce MatFlood, a computationally efficient static flood tool that exploits image-processing algorithm for estimation of flood extension and depth. Features include (a) an algorithm that evaluates hydro-connectivity; (b) functionality to calculate spatially varying flood water levels and (c) the inclusion of a reduction factor to mimic the effects of physical processes not explicitly resolved. The efficiency of the tool is well-suited for simulating numerous flooding maps using different inputs (flood water levels or digital elevation models), over large areas, and high spatial resolution. We apply MatFlood to assess the flood extent and depth of Hurricane Sandy (2012) in the New York/New Jersey area to illustrate its use. In comparison to existing approaches based on geographic information systems, MatFlood performs the same calculations six times faster in the Hurricane Sandy study case.This work was funded by National Science Foundation PREEVENTS Award Numbers 1854896 (T. Wahl and A. R. Enriquez), 94267271 (J. F. Booth), 1855037 (P. M. Orton) and 2013280 (S. A. Talke). S. A. Talke was also funded by the National Science Foundation Award Numbers 1455350. A. R. Enríquez was also funded by Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, project 101019470 - SpaDeRisks. S. Santamaria-Aguilar was funded as part of the Megalopolitan Coastal Transformation Hub under National Science Foundation award ICER-2103754.Peer reviewe