Evaluation of WRF-Chem simulated meteorology and aerosols over northern India during the severe pollution episode of 2016

We use a state-of-the-art regional chemistry transport model (WRF-Chem v4.2.1) to simulate particulate air pollution over northern India during September–November 2016. This period includes a severe air pollution episode marked by exceedingly high levels of hourly PM2.5 (particulate matter having an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 µm) during 30 October to 7 November, particularly over the wider Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). We provide a comprehensive evaluation of simulated seasonal meteorology (nudged by ERA5 reanalysis products) and aerosol chemistry (PM2.5 and its black carbon (BC) component) using a range of ground-based, satellite and reanalysis products, with a focus on the November 2016 haze episode. We find the daily and diurnal features in simulated surface temperature show the best agreement followed by relative humidity, with the largest discrepancies being an overestimate of night-time wind speeds (up to 1.5 m s−1) confirmed by both ground and radiosonde observations. Upper-air meteorology comparisons with radiosonde observations show excellent model skill in reproducing the vertical temperature gradient (r&gt;0.9). We evaluate modelled PM2.5 at 20 observation sites across the IGP including eight in Delhi and compare simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) with data from four AERONET sites. We also compare our model aerosol results with MERRA-2 reanalysis aerosol fields and MODIS satellite AOD. We find that the model captures many features of the observed aerosol distributions but tends to overestimate PM2.5 during September (by a factor of 2) due to too much dust, and underestimate peak PM2.5 during the severe episode. Delhi experiences some of the highest daily mean PM2.5 concentrations within the study region, with dominant components nitrate (∼25 %), dust (∼25 %), secondary organic aerosols (∼20 %) and ammonium (∼10 %). Modelled PM2.5 and BC spatially correlate well with MERRA-2 products across the whole domain. High AOD at 550nm across the IGP is also well predicted by the model relative to MODIS satellite (r≥0.8) and ground-based AERONET observations (r≥0.7), except during September. Overall, the model realistically captures the seasonal and spatial variations of meteorology and ambient pollution over northern India. However, the observed underestimations in pollutant concentrations likely come from a combination of underestimated emissions, too much night-time dispersion, and some missing or poorly represented aerosol chemistry processes. Nevertheless, we find the model is sufficiently accurate to be a useful tool for exploring the sources and processes that control PM2.5 levels during severe pollution episodes.</p

Quantifying the dominant sources influencing the 2016 particulate matter pollution episode over northern India

Intense episodes of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution often overwhelm large areas of the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) in northern India during the post-monsoon season, a time when crop residue burning is at its peak. We conduct idealised emission sensitivity experiments using the WRF-Chem model to investigate the leading causes and spatiotemporal extent of one such extreme episode from 31 Oct to 8 Nov 2016, when hourly PM2.5 levels exceeded 500 μg m−3 across much of the IGP on several days. We utilise the anthropogenic emissions from EDGARv5.0 and the latest FINNv2.5 for fire emissions and evaluate modelled and observed ambient PM2.5 and black carbon (BC) concentrations across the IGP. The model captured the PM2.5 and BC peaks during the latter half of the episode and underestimated on other days. We find that biomass burning (BB) emissions during this episode have the strongest effect across the source regions in the upper (NW) IGP, followed by Delhi (middle IGP), where it contributes 50–80% to 24 h mean PM2.5. Complete elimination of BB emissions decreases PM2.5 concentrations by 400 μg m−3 (80–90%) in the upper IGP and by 280 μg m−3 (40–80%) across the middle IGP during this episode. Contributions from the BB source to daily varying BC concentrations are 80–90%, 40–85% and 10–60% across upper, middle and lower IGP, respectively. BB emissions dominantly contribute to daily mean secondary organic aerosols (80%), primary organic aerosols (90%), dust (60%), and nitrate (50%) components of PM2.5 across the upper and middle IGP. In comparison, the anthropogenic share of these compounds was nearly one-third everywhere except across the lower IGP. The buildup of the episode across the middle IGP was facilitated by prolonged atmospheric stratification and stagnation, causing BB-derived BC and PM2.5 to be trapped in the lowest 1 km. Our work emphasises the need for rigorous policy interventions during post-monsoon to reduce agricultural crop burning, together with targeted anthropogenic emissions control across the IGP, to minimise such extreme episodes in the future