Data Driven Mathematical Models for Forecast of Covid-19 Disease in Nigeria

In this research, two mathematical models are proposed for investigation of laboratory confirmed daily COVID-19 disease incidence and total active daily infectious COVID-19 cases using data obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control.  Due  to the observed patterns in the raw data, Autoregressive  Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) method  is used on the data which covered  a period of 521 days (27  February, 2020-  1st  August 2021).  While diagnostic check of ARIMA(11,1,0)  indicate Ljung-Box Q(18) statistics value of 12.544  with p-value  of 0.084,  diagnostic check of ARIMA(1, 1, 1)  indicate Ljung Box Q(18) statistics value of 22.420 with p-value of 0.130.  Furthermore, stationary R- squared values are 0.803 and 0.858 at 95% confidence bound for ARIMA (11, 1, 0) and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) respectively which are indicative of good models.  Results from ARIMA (11, 1, 0) forecast show a slightly moderate upward trend in confirmed  daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria and results from ARIMA(1, 1, 1) indicate significant upward trend in total active daily infectious COVID-19  cases in Nigerian population.  Therefore, the developed models can be adopted by presidential taskforce and other agencies in health sector regarding future vaccination towards prevention of the spread of COVID-19 disease in Nigeria provided that the present general prevailing conditions of disease spread remain fairly the same

MSR37 Validation of the Ibadan Knee/Hip Osteoarthritis Outcome Measure (IKHOAM) Among Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis

Objectives This study aimed to determine the convergent, divergent and known-group validity of the IKHOAM among patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA). Methods Patients with knee OA participated in this cross-sectional study. Convergent, divergent and known-group validity of the IKHOAM was determined using the Osteoarthritis Knee and Hip Quality of Life Questionnaire (OAKHQoL), Quadruple Visual Analogue Scale (QVAS), and socio-demographic characteristics (age and sex). Data was summarised using descriptive statistics. Inferential statistics of Pearson’s correlation and factor analysis to determine the sampling adequacy, test of sphericity and multi-collinearity of IKHOAM and OAKHoL was carried out. Results One hundred and three patients with a mean age of 58.07 years completed the study. There were significant correlations between each of IKHOAM’s activity limitation assistance (r=-0.458 - -0.892), activity limitations difficulty (r = -0.311 - 0.328), activity limitations domains (-0.311 - -0.364) and participation restrictions domain (r=-.364 - -0.367) with each domain of QVAS (p<0.05). There was significant correlation between IKHOAM’s activity limitations difficulty (r=0.398, p=.001), activity limitations domain (r=0.473, p=.001), participation restrictions domain (r=0.420, p=.001), and physical performance domains (r=-0.361, p=.009) with OAKHQoL’s physical activity dimension. There was significant correlation between IKHOAM’s activity limitation assistance (r=-0.202, p=.041), activity limitations difficulty (r=0.441, p=.001), activity limitations domain (r=0.278, p=.005), participation restrictions domain (r=0.238, p=.015), and physical performance domains (r=0.644, p=.001) with OAKHQoL’s mental health dimension. There was significant relationship between IKHOAM’s activity limitation assistance (r=-0.618, p=.001), activity limitations difficulty (r=0.681, p=.001), and activity limitations domain (r=0.223, p=.023) with OAKHQoL’s pain dimension. Conclusions The IKHOAM is a valid and psychometrically sound instrument to measure health-related quality of life in patients with OA. Thus, IKHOAM seems to be useable in other context where the OAKHoL can be utilised as it captures specific attributes of quality of life measured by other tools

Data Driven Mathematical Models for Forecast of Covid-19 Disease in Nigeria

In this research, two mathematical models are proposed for investigation of laboratory confirmed daily COVID-19 disease incidence and total active daily infectious COVID-19 cases using data obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control.  Due  to the observed patterns in the raw data, Autoregressive  Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) method  is used on the data which covered  a period of 521 days (27  February, 2020-  1st  August 2021).  While diagnostic check of ARIMA(11,1,0)  indicate Ljung-Box Q(18) statistics value of 12.544  with p-value  of 0.084,  diagnostic check of ARIMA(1, 1, 1)  indicate Ljung Box Q(18) statistics value of 22.420 with p-value of 0.130.  Furthermore, stationary R- squared values are 0.803 and 0.858 at 95% confidence bound for ARIMA (11, 1, 0) and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) respectively which are indicative of good models.  Results from ARIMA (11, 1, 0) forecast show a slightly moderate upward trend in confirmed  daily COVID-19 incidence in Nigeria and results from ARIMA(1, 1, 1) indicate significant upward trend in total active daily infectious COVID-19  cases in Nigerian population.  Therefore, the developed models can be adopted by presidential taskforce and other agencies in health sector regarding future vaccination towards prevention of the spread of COVID-19 disease in Nigeria provided that the present general prevailing conditions of disease spread remain fairly the same