Data-driven malaria prevalence prediction in large densely populated urban holoendemic sub-Saharan West Africa

Over 200 million malaria cases globally lead to half-million deaths annually. The development of malaria prevalence prediction systems to support malaria care pathways has been hindered by lack of data, a tendency towards universal "monolithic" models (one-size-fits-all-regions) and a focus on long lead time predictions. Current systems do not provide short-term local predictions at an accuracy suitable for deployment in clinical practice. Here we show a data-driven approach that reliably produces one-month-ahead prevalence prediction within a densely populated all-year-round malaria metropolis of over 3.5 million inhabitants situated in Nigeria which has one of the largest global burdens of P. falciparum malaria. We estimate one-month-ahead prevalence in a unique 22-years prospective regional dataset of > 9 × 10^{4} participants attending our healthcare services. Our system agrees with both magnitude and direction of the prediction on validation data achieving MAE ≤ 6 × 10^{-2}, MSE ≤ 7 × 10^{-3}, PCC (median 0.63, IQR 0.3) and with more than 80% of estimates within a (+ 0.1 to - 0.05) error-tolerance range which is clinically relevant for decision-support in our holoendemic setting. Our data-driven approach could facilitate healthcare systems to harness their own data to support local malaria care pathways

Safety and immunogenicity of heterologous prime-boost immunisation with Plasmodium falciparum malaria candidate vaccines, ChAd63 ME-TRAP and MVA ME-TRAP, in healthy Gambian and Kenyan adults.

BACKGROUND: Heterologous prime boost immunization with chimpanzee adenovirus 63 (ChAd63) and Modified vaccinia Virus Ankara (MVA) vectored vaccines is a strategy recently shown to be capable of inducing strong cell mediated responses against several antigens from the malaria parasite. ChAd63-MVA expressing the Plasmodium falciparum pre-erythrocytic antigen ME-TRAP (multiple epitope string with thrombospondin-related adhesion protein) is a leading malaria vaccine candidate, capable of inducing sterile protection in malaria naïve adults following controlled human malaria infection (CHMI). METHODOLOGY: We conducted two Phase Ib dose escalation clinical trials assessing the safety and immunogenicity of ChAd63-MVA ME-TRAP in 46 healthy malaria exposed adults in two African countries with similar malaria transmission patterns. RESULTS: ChAd63-MVA ME-TRAP was shown to be safe and immunogenic, inducing high-level T cell responses (median >1300 SFU/million PBMC). CONCLUSIONS: ChAd63-MVA ME-TRAP is a safe and highly immunogenic vaccine regimen in adults with prior exposure to malaria. Further clinical trials to assess safety and immunogenicity in children and infants and protective efficacy in the field are now warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pactr.org PACTR2010020001771828 Pactr.org PACTR201008000221638 ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01373879 NCT01373879 ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01379430 NCT01379430