The 2016 Irish general election: a final look at the parties and the polling

Irish voters go to the polls today in the country’s general election. Ahead of the vote, Adrian Kavanagh provides a final look at the parties and the polling. Using a constituency level analysis of opinion polls, he illustrates how seat projections have changed since 2014, noting that a late swing in the polling means the governing parties, Fine Gael and Labour, could struggle to have enough support to return to power

Changes may offer parties a quick fix to gender quotas

With constituencies in general growing larger, parties will find it easier to implement gender quotas. But some areas will see unprecedented competition, writes Adrian Kavanag

Independents day as major parties lose out

Anti-establishment are now well placed to translate strong national support into major gains at the next general election, while Government parties face losses, says Adrian Kavanag

Back page: Unfamiliar territory

Cutting the number of TDs to 158, not population changes, has defined the proposed constituency boundaries, writes Adrian Kavanagh

Labour won't get vote transfers from the Left

For the first time the Sunday Independent/ Millward Brown national opinion poll has attempted to measure the "toxicity" of the main political parties and other political groupings

Changes may offer parties a quick fix to gender quotas

With constituencies in general growing larger, parties will find it easier to implement gender quotas. But some areas will see unprecedented competition, writes Adrian Kavanag

Back page: Unfamiliar territory

Cutting the number of TDs to 158, not population changes, has defined the proposed constituency boundaries, writes Adrian Kavanagh

Social Deprivation, Political Alienation and Community Empowerment. The geography of voter turnout in Ireland,1997-2002, and its Association with Social Deprivation.

The Irish political system has become increasingly characterised by declining turnout rates in the past few decades, with this accompanied by very low turnouts in a number of areas and for certain elections types. This thesis addresses this context through analysing turnout variations in recent election using a spatial framework and focussing particularly on how these spatial patterns in turnout are associated with levels of social well being. Other factors were also analysed in terms of their impacts on turnout variations, namely a range of social and political factors. Constituency level and sub-constituency level analyses are used to analyse the extent to which deprivation may influence turnout levels and to determine whether this relationship is stronger in urban or rural areas or for different types of elections. The use of marked register turnout data allows this relationship to be tested using very detailed data for small geographical areas. The ecological modelling of turnout variance is upheld by the use of individual level analyses (through the use of questionnaires and interviews). Strong associations between turnout and social well-being for urban areas were uncovered in the Dublin study area, with turnouts generally lower in the more deprived areas. There was no evidence of such a relationship in the rural areas for local elections, although there was a pattern in which turnouts were lower in the more deprived areas in general elections and, especially, referenda. Election-specific influences on the relationship between turnout and deprivation were uncovered, with class influences being more pertinent in relation to referendum turnouts. Other socio-economic and demographic influences were shown to have a bearing on spatial variations in Irish turnouts, such as age and residential mobility, with the effect of such influences being particularly pronounced in certain geographical contexts. Political mobilisation factors were also shown to have a bearing on Irish turnout variations, with local election turnouts in areas being especially determined by the presence, or nonpresence, of candidates local to the area in the contest