For the first time the Sunday Independent/ Millward Brown

national opinion poll has attempted to measure the "toxicity" of

the main political parties and other political groupings

Kavanagh, Adrian

English

MURAL - Maynooth University Research Archive Library

Labour won't get vote transfers from the Left - Independent.iehttp://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/labour-wont-get-vote-transfers-from-the-left-31135298.html[15/06/2015 14:17:01]Labour won't get vote transfers fromthe LeftPoll suggests Joan Burton can't rely on broader Left topush candidates over the line, writes analyst Dr AdrianKavanaghJoan Burton and Enda KennyFor the first time the Sunday Independent/ Millward Brownnational opinion poll has attempted to measure the "toxicity" ofthe main political parties and other political groupings.Free care for children now a realitywith over 55pc of all GPs signed up CommentEven the clock at Clerys standsstill for no man  CommentBishops' climbdown shows a lackof faith in their message  CommentNo tears shed for Shatter, butGuerin procedures need to bequestioned  CommentUgliness of Kate Moss's mile-highmeltdown  CommentSteven Reid: Hopes look slimunless Germans do us afavourSomeone somewhere is going have to help us outDr Adrian Kavanagh PUBLISHED12/04/2015 | 02:30 SHARE   Most Viewed Most Shared Most CommentedPromoted articlesDon't MissBy using this website you consent to our use of cookies. For more information on cookies see our Cookie Policy Sheamus wins world title shot with WWE Money in the Bank ladder win | Ireland's World Cup opponents Italy rocked by player strik      FOLLOW  CONTACT Opinion CommentMonday 15 June 2015BREAKING NEWS        VIDEO   GALLERIES INDEPENDENT.IE NEWS BUSINESS SPORT LIFE STYLE ENTERTAINMENT TRAVELJOBS CARS DEALS DATING DEATH NOTICES BUY AND SELL FIT MAGAZINE NEWSLETTER REGISTER LOGINLabour won't get vote transfers from the Left - Independent.iehttp://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/labour-wont-get-vote-transfers-from-the-left-31135298.html[15/06/2015 14:17:01]Respondents were asked: "Which parties or political groupings would you not considervoting for in any upcoming election?" A number of interesting trends emerge in termsof both potential vote transfer patterns and the changing nature of the Irish politicalsystem. These figures suggest Labour will not be able to rely on transfers from thebroader Left to the same degree it enjoyed in past general elections. Drawingconclusions is subject to some caveats. The relatively small number of respondents incertain categories (e.g. people who said they would vote for the smaller parties) meansthe margin of error increases notably when studying trends within these subcategories.The nature of the Irish electoral system has usually determined that the larger partiesget a seat bonus in general elections. This does not always transpire, especially inelections where the big parties experience significant losses in support. Labour in1997, Fine Gael in 2002 and Fianna Fail in 2011 are cases in point.However, in many cases candidates from the larger parties are better placed to draw invote transfers because they tend to rank higher in terms of first-preference votes andhence can attain vote transfers from lower-placed candidates, as and when thesecandidates are eliminated.Sinn Fein, by contrast, has often been portrayed as a "transfer toxic" party. This issomewhat of a generalisation, of course, as transfer patterns to Sinn Fein, and indeedany other party, will vary by constituency, as well as depending on the ideologicalleanings of the candidates that have surpluses to distribute, or are being eliminated.Geographical trends, as evidenced in a trend of higher transfer levels betweencandidates from the same areas, will also have a bearing here. For instance, SinnFein's Michael Colreavy managed to stay ahead of Fianna Fail in the contest for thefinal seat in Sligo-North Leitrim in 2011, thanks to an ability to draw strong transfersfrom a host of left-leaning independent and small party candidates, taking 36pc of theDeclan Bree transfers and 29pc of the Susan O'Keeffe transfers.But, as the by-election contests in Dublin West and Dublin South-West in 2014showed, Sinn Fein often struggles to win vote transfers. In 2011 Sinn Fein candidatesin Dublin North-East and Wicklow fell out of the seat positions as election countsprogressed because of the failure to pick up transfers.At first glance, the figures presented in the Sunday Independent/Millward Brown pollseem to contradict these trends. Voters are most likely to say that the parties they willNOT consider voting for at the next general election generally tend to be the largerparties. In all, 40pc claim they will not vote for Fine Gael, with over 30pc also claimingthey will not vote for Labour (32pc), Sinn Fein (32pc) or Fianna Fail (30pc), withlevels being decidedly lower for the smaller parties and independents.These figures could be pointing towards the growing polarisation of Irish politics, withvoters on opposing sides of the political spectrum becoming increasingly vehementthat they will, or will not, support certain political parties.Drilling down further into these figures, the trend towards a realignment of Irishpolitics from the old Civil War divide becomes increasingly evident. A notable divideemerges between the four parties that have been in government at some stage over thepast eight years and the anti-establishment parties and groupings, including Sinn Fein,that tend to occupy the Left of the political spectrum.Civil War politics is still evident to a degree, given that 23pc of Fine Gael supportersDeliverance from the past...for John BoormanTalks to Barry Egan about thedeath of his daughter TelscheDoctor's orders: Preparingfor the long goodbyeDr Ciara Kelly on her mother'sdementiaExperience your city at up to 90% View daily deal for: Choose RegionDublin Galway DonegalLuxury SpaPackage6 Gym & LeisureFacility PassesSummer Campwith Achill Surf &Kayak SchoolEditor's ChoiceLabour won't get vote transfers from the Left - Independent.iehttp://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/labour-wont-get-vote-transfers-from-the-left-31135298.html[15/06/2015 14:17:01]say they will not consider voting for Fianna Fail, while 40pc of Fianna Fail supporterssay they will not consider voting for Fine Gael.But the most striking trend is the high level of anti-establishment party voters who saythey will not consider voting for Fianna Fail, Fine Gael or Labour. A large proportionof Sinn Fein supporters claim they will not consider voting for Fine Gael (77pc),Fianna Fail (58pc) or Labour (60pc). Fine Gael won't lose sleep over these figures, butJoan Burton will be worried given that Labour's ability to win extra seats at pastgeneral elections was down, in part, to an ability to draw vote transfers from smallerleft-wing parties.If the level of Left-wing transfers to Labour is drying up, as these figures mightsuggest, this poses an added challenge to Labour in translating their notably reducedsupport figures, since the 2011 election, into seats in the next Dail.The social and demographic breakdown of these figures offers further evidence of thegrowing class basis to Irish politics. A higher level of respondents among the C2DEsocial class groups are not willing to consider voting for Fine Gael (14pc difference),Fianna Fail (9pc difference) and Labour (9pc difference) than would be the case forthe ABC1 social class groups.By contrast, ABC1 respondents are more resistant to voting for Sinn Fein (12pcdifference), the Socialist Party/Anti-Austerity Alliance (9pc difference) and PeopleBefore Profit Alliance (6pc difference). Demographic and geographical trends furthercomplement these findings.The highest levels of dissatisfaction with the establishment parties are associated withthe 35 to 44-year-old age cohort - arguably the cohort most affected by the recession.Older respondents are the most resistant towards voting for Sinn Fein and the otherleft-wing groupings. Labour and Sinn Fein will face a greater struggle to win votes inrural areas than in the more urban constituencies. The urban-rural variation is evenmore evident for the Green Party. In all, 30pc of rural respondents and 40pc offarmers say they will not consider voting for the party, as contrasted with a 17pc levelfor urban respondents.Dr Adrian Kavanagh is a lecturer at Maynooth University, Department of GeographySunday IndependentFollow @Independent_iePromoted ArticlesRetailers hate this! They don'twant you to find out aboutthis…MegaBargain 24 David Walliams left 'devastated'after split from wife Lara StoneEntertainment Daily Phillip Schofield hits back atviewers after complaintsEntertainment Daily

Labour won't get vote transfers from

the Left

http://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/6200/1/AK-vote-transfers.pdf

Labour won't get vote transfers from the Left

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