PSO based Neural Networks vs. Traditional Statistical Models for Seasonal Time Series Forecasting

Seasonality is a distinctive characteristic which is often observed in many practical time series. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are a class of promising models for efficiently recognizing and forecasting seasonal patterns. In this paper, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) approach is used to enhance the forecasting strengths of feedforward ANN (FANN) as well as Elman ANN (EANN) models for seasonal data. Three widely popular versions of the basic PSO algorithm, viz. Trelea-I, Trelea-II and Clerc-Type1 are considered here. The empirical analysis is conducted on three real-world seasonal time series. Results clearly show that each version of the PSO algorithm achieves notably better forecasting accuracies than the standard Backpropagation (BP) training method for both FANN and EANN models. The neural network forecasting results are also compared with those from the three traditional statistical models, viz. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Holt-Winters (HW) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The comparison demonstrates that both PSO and BP based neural networks outperform SARIMA, HW and SVM models for all three time series datasets. The forecasting performances of ANNs are further improved through combining the outputs from the three PSO based models.Comment: 4 figures, 4 tables, 31 references, conference proceeding

Universal scaling in BCS superconductivity in two dimensions in non-s waves

The solutions of a renormalized BCS model are studied in two space dimensions in $s$, $p$ and $d$ waves for finite-range separable potentials. The gap parameter, the critical temperature $T_c$, the coherence length $\xi$ and the jump in specific heat at $T_c$ as a function of zero-temperature condensation energy exhibit universal scalings. In the weak-coupling limit, the present model yields a small $\xi$ and large $T_c$ appropriate to those for high-$T_c$ cuprates. The specific heat, penetration depth and thermal conductivity as a function of temperature show universal scaling in $p$ and $d$ waves.Comment: 11 pages, LATEX, 4 postscript figures embedded using eps

Quantum scattering in one dimension

A self-contained discussion of nonrelativistic quantum scattering is presented in the case of central potentials in one space dimension, which will facilitate the understanding of the more complex scattering theory in two and three dimensions. The present discussion illustrates in a simple way the concept of partial-wave decomposition, phase shift, optical theorem and effective-range expansion.Comment: 8 page

Effect of Irrigation and Potash Levels on Keeping Quality of Potato

Irrigation and fertilizer are the most dominating factors, in deciding the keeping quality of potato. It is, therefore, essential to formulate the efficient, reliable and economically viable irrigation management strategy with the use of potassium nutrient in order to produce better keeping quality. The investigation comprising four levels of irrigation (25, 30, 35 and 40 mm CPE (Cumulative pan evaporation) and four levels of potash (0, 100, 125 and 150 kg/ha) was carried out at Research Farm of the Department of Vegetable Science, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, (Haryana) Hisar, India during two years to find out the optimum level of irrigation and potash for obtaining higher yield of potatoes with better keeping quality at ambient room temperature. The potato variety used for the investigation was Kufri Bahar. The treatments were laid out in a split plot design with three replications. The increasing levels of irrigation and potash showed significant improvement in keeping quality parameters of potato. Likewise, the values for physiological loss in weight and decay loss of potato tubers (%) at 15, 30, 45 and 60 days after harvest were the lowest with irrigation level 40 mm CPE and application of potash @ 150 kg/ha. The two years results suggest that the irrigation level 40 mm CPE along with potash @ 150 kg/ha has shown the best treatment combination for the storage of potato at ambient room temperature under semiarid conditions of Hisar (Haryana)