Can we shift belief in the ‘Law of Small Numbers’?

‘Sample size neglect’ is a tendency to underestimate how the variability of mean estimates changes with sample size. We studied 100 participants, from science or social science backgrounds, to test whether a training task showing different-sized samples of data points (the ‘beeswarm’ task) can help overcome this bias. Ability to judge if two samples came from the same population improved with training, and 38% of participants reported that they had learned to wait for larger samples before making a response. Before and after training, participants completed a 12-item estimation quiz, including items testing sample size neglect (S-items). Bonus payments were given for correct responses. The quiz confirmed sample size neglect: 20% of participants scored zero on S-items, and only two participants achieved more than 4/6 items correct. Performance on the quiz did not improve after training, regardless of how much learning had occurred on the beeswarm task. Error patterns on the quiz were generally consistent with expectation, though there were some intriguing exceptions that could not readily be explained by sample size neglect. We suggest that training with simulated data might need to be accompanied by explicit instruction to be effective in counteracting sample size neglect more generally

Efficacy of Corrective Exercise on Improving Functional Movement within the Tactical Population: A Critically Appraised Topic

CLINICAL SCENARIO Police, fire, emergency medical services, and military personnel encompass a tactical population that is considered an emerging setting in athletic training.Due to the occupational demands within this demographic, these patients are experiencing musculoskeletal injuries and injuries that withhold them from career duties at an alarming rate. One of the main contributors to the incidence of musculoskeletal injury is a lack of functional movement.1-3 Incorporating corrective functional movement programs should be a primary goal in treating tactical populations

Archaeology of Atafu, Tokelau: Some initial results from 2008

Surface survey, shovel testing, and stratigraphic excavations were done on Atafu Atoll in Tokelau during August 2008. Initial results suggest that Fale Islet has the most potential for further archaeological research. Dense cultural deposits on this islet are >1 m (39 in.) deep. Cultural material recovered includes food bone, fire-affected volcanic rock, tool-grade basalt flakes and tool fragments, Tridacna shell adzes, and pearl-shell fishhook fragments. Dog bone occurs from the earliest deposits through to the late prehistoric, while pig bone is found only in historic contexts. Fish bone is common throughout, and, with the exception of Tridacna, there are few edible mollusk remains. Initial EDXRF (Energy Dispersive X-Ray Fluorescence) analyses have found the basalt to be consistent with documented sources on Tutuila, Samoa. Basal radiocarbon dates from two excavation units are 660-540 cal. BP and 500-310 cal. BP (at 2σ)

A Cytochrome-b Perspective on Passerina Bunting Relationships

We sequenced the complete mitochondrial cytochrome-b gene (1,143 nucleotides) for representatives of each species in the cardinalid genera Passerina (6 species), Guiraca (1 species), and Cyanocompsa (3 species), and used a variety of phylogenetic methods to address relationships within and among genera. We determined that Passerina, as presently recognized, is paraphyletic. Lazuli Bunting (P. amoena) is sister to the much larger Blue Grosbeak (Guiraca caerulea). Indigo Bunting (P. cyanea) and Lazuli Bunting are not sister taxa as generally thought. In all weighted parsimony trees and for the gamma-corrected HKY tree, Indigo Bunting is the sister of two sister groups, a “blue” (Lazuli Bunting and Blue Grosbeak) and a “painted” (Rosita\u27s Bunting [P. rositae], Orange-breasted Bunting [P. leclancherii], Varied Bunting [P. versicolor], and Painted Bunting [P. ciris]) clade. The latter two species form a highly supported sister pair of relatively more recent origin. Uncorrected (p) distances for ingroup (Passerina and Guiraca) taxa range from 3.0% (P. versicolor–P. ciris) to 7.6% (P. cyanea–P. leclancherii) and average 6.5% overall. Assuming a molecular clock, a bunting “radiation” between 4.1 and 7.3 Mya yielded four lineages. This timing is consistent with fossil evidence and coincides with a late-Miocene cooling during which a variety of western grassland habitats evolved. A reduction in size at that time may have allowed buntings to exploit that new food resource (grass seeds). We speculate that the Blue Grosbeak subsequently gained large size and widespread distribution as a result of ecological character displacement

Four-point Green functions in the Schwinger Model

The evaluation of the 4-point Green functions in the 1+1 Schwinger model is presented both in momentum and coordinate space representations. The crucial role in our calculations play two Ward identities: i) the standard one, and ii) the chiral one. We demonstrate how the infinite set of Dyson-Schwinger equations is simplified, and is so reduced, that a given n-point Green function is expressed only through itself and lower ones. For the 4-point Green function, with two bosonic and two fermionic external `legs', a compact solution is given both in momentum and coordinate space representations. For the 4-fermion Green function a selfconsistent equation is written down in the momentum representation and a concrete solution is given in the coordinate space. This exact solution is further analyzed and we show that it contains a pole corresponding to the Schwinger boson. All detailed considerations given for various 4-point Green functions are easily generizable to higher functions.Comment: In Revtex, 12 pages + 2 PostScript figure