Modeling and Forecasting Volatility of the Malaysian and the Singaporean stock indices using Asymmetric GARCH models and Non-normal Densities

This paper examines and estimate the three GARCH(1,1) models (GARCH, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH) using the daily price data. Two Asian stock indices KLCI and STI are studied using daily data over a 14-years period. The competing Models include GARCH, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH used with three different distributions, Gaussian normal, Student-t, Generalized Error Distribution. The estimation results show that the forecasting performance of asymmetric GARCH Models (GJR-GARCH and EGARCH), especially when fat-tailed asymmetric densities are taken into account in the conditional volatility, is better than symmetric GARCH. Moreover, its found that the AR(1)-GJR model provide the best out-of- sample forecast for the Malaysian stock market, while AR(1)-EGARCH provide a better estimation for the Singaporean stock market.ARCH-Models, Asymmetry, Stock market indices and volatility modeling, SAS/ETS software.

Practical Volatility Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management

Being able to choose most suitable volatility model and distribution specification is a more demanding task. This paper introduce an analyzing procedure using the Kullback-Leibler information criteria (KLIC) as a statistical tool to evaluate and compare the predictive abilities of possibly misspecified density forecast models. The main advantage of this statistical tool is that we use the censored likelihood functions to compute the tail minimum of the KLIC, to compare the performance of a density forecast models in the tails. We include an illustrative simulation and an empirical application to compare a set of distributions, including symmetric/asymmetric distribution, and a family of GARCH volatility models. We highlight the use of our approach to a daily index, the Kuala Lumpur Composite index (KLCI). Our results shows that the choice of the conditional distribution appear to be a more dominant factor in determining the adequacy of density forecasts than the choice of volatility model. Furthermore, the results support the Skewed for KLCI return distribution.Density forecast; Conditional distribution; Forecast accuracy; KLIC; GARCH models

Management And Outcome Of Diabetic Charcot’s Foot: Jabir Abueliz Diabetic Center Experience 2019 (JADC)

Charcot foot is a rare but a serious diabetic related condition. Usually it is misdiagnosed although its prognosis related to timely and proper management. Objective: To study the management and outcome of diabetic Charcot’s foot in Jabir AbuEliz diabetic center in period between 2012 and 2019. Methods: A combined retro-prospective descriptive analytical study and hospital based. Study conducted to 134 diabetic patients with charcot joint attended to JADC during the study period. The study sample was calculated by total coverage. Study questionnaires captured mainly quantitative data. Data analyzed by using SPSS version 21. Results: 134 diabetic patients with charcot joint were involved in this study, most of the patients were males, in the age group 51-60 years and had NIDDM associated with other medical disorders.  At the time of presentation, 91% of the patients presented with swelling and 53.7% of the patients had pain. On examination of the foot; 84.3% of the patients had swelling and 59.7% of the patients had dry skin. Hammer toes deformity was the commonest feet deformity. Based on modified Sella and Barrette classification, 17.2% of the patients in grade 1. Casting was performed to all patients with good outcome to 91.1% of the patients. Conclusion: This study reveals that grade 0,1&2 Charcot neuroarthropathy feet had good outcome if properly recognized and early managed. The total contact cast (TCC) and CAM walker is effective in the management

Genetic Analysis of Striga Asiatlca (L.) Kuntze Resistance in Line X Tester Crosses of Sorghum

The current study was conducted to investigate the genetics of Striga resistance in 72 'sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) hybrids and their 17 parents. The experiments were carried out in India during the 1995 rainy season at two locations, ICRISAT Asia Center (IAC), Patancheru, and Akola, Maharashtra State, in randomized complete block designs. The traits measured were Striga incidence, days to 50% flowering, plant height, and grain yield plant-'. The traits showed significant differences at both locations. Both additive and non-additive gene action was found important for the different traits. 'i'he non-additive gene action was found important for Striga resistance though the levels of infestation in the two locations were low.....

Corporate Communication Management (CCM) and organisational performance: A review of the current literature, conceptual model and research propositions

Corporate communication received great attention from scholars and the business community more than 40 years ago due to changes in global business environments.Many scholars believe there are influences of corporate communication management (CCM) on organisational performance, yet there is a paucity of studies on the validation of this theoretical assumption.Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to address the gap by providing an elevated understanding of CCM and its consequences. The managerial and policy implications provided in this study help corporate communication practitioners to identify the practical needs of their work and design an appropriate CCM programme

Assessment of phenotypic performance, association and path analysis of upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) yield and fiber quality traits in central Sudan

Fifteen upland cotton inbred lines and the check (commercial cultivar Hamid) were evaluated during 2013/14 and 2014/15 seasons at the Rahad Research Station Farm, Gezira Research Station Farm and Sennar Research Station Farm of the Agricultural Research Corporation, Sudan. The objective was to estimate seed cotton yield potential and carry out interrelationships and path coefficient analysis. Treatments were arranged in a randomized complete block design with four replicates. Data were collected on days to 50% flowering, number of sympodia/plant, number of bolls / plant, plant height, ginning out-trun, boll weight, seed cotton yield (kg/ha) and fiber characteristics . The study showed significant differences among the genotypes for all characters. Seed cotton yield over environments ranged between 1907 and 2380kg/ha. The genotypes R-6, R-40, R-231 and R-43 showed the best seed cotton yield ranging from 2310 to 2380 kg/ha over environments. At the same time, these genotypes had good number of sympodia / plant, GOT%, lint index, seed index and number of bolls / plant. Over environments, line R-231 revealed high fiber length (28.9 )2.5% SL() and bundle strength (30 g∕tex). The simple linear correlation and path coefficient analysis showed that seed cotton yield was highly significantly and positively correlated with most traits. In conclusion, genotypes R-6, R-40, R-231, and R-43 are recommended for further testing over a range of environments to examine their yield and fiber quality for large field production.   تم اختبار 15 سلالة نقية من القطن الأكالا (Gossypium hirsutum L.)  بالأضافة الي الصنف حامد المنزرع تجاريا بالسودان في موسمي 14/2013  و 15/2014 في محطة بحوث الرهد و محطة بحوث الجزيرة و محطة بحوث سنار, هيئة البحوث الزراعية , السودان. الهدف من هذه التجربة هو تقدير الاداء والعلاقات المتداخلة للانتاجية ومكوناتها.  استخدم تصميم القطاعات العشوائية الكاملة بأربعة مكررات. الصفات التي تم قياسها هي %50 ازهار و عدد الأفرع الثمرية بالنبات و عدد اللوز بالنبات و طول النبات و تصافي الحليج و وزن اللوزة والانتاجية بالهكتار وخصائص الشعرة. نتائج التحليل أظهرت فروقات معنوية بين الطرز الوراثية في جميع الصفات. متوسط الانتاجية تراوح ما بين 1907 و 2380 كيلو جرام للهكتار. أظهرت الطرز الوراثية التالية:  R-6و  R-40و R-231  و R-43 انتاجية عالية تراوحت ما بين 2310 الي 2380 كيلوجرام للهكتار كمتوسط لكل البيئات. امتازت هذه الطرز بأفرع ثمرية كثيرة و بتصافي حليج عالي و عدد كبير للوز بالنبات. أظهرت السلالة R-231 طول شعرة (28,9) 2,5% SL ومتانة الفتلة (30 g∕tex) في البيئات المختلفة. كما أظهر تحليل المسار والارتباط الجيني أن كل الصفات ارتبطت ايجابا بانتاجية القطن زهرة مع تصافي حليج عالي. خلاصة البحث واستناداً علي متوسط الأداء يوصى باختبار انتاجية الطرز الوراثية R-6 وR-40 و R-231و R-43  في عدة مواقع ومواسم للتأكد من نتائج هذه الدراسة والاستفادة منها في توصية باجازة بعض هذه الطرز لتناسب الظروف البيئية في السودان.   &nbsp

THE EFFECT OF AREA AND SITE OF TYMPANIC MEMBRANE PERFORATIONS ON HEARING THRESHOLD AMONG SUDANESE PATIENTS

Background: Chronic otitis media is one of the commonest otological problems among Sudanese children and adults. The disease presents with perforations of the eardrum, discharging ears and varying degrees of hearing loss. Objective: The objective of this work is to study the effect of the area and the site of the tympanic membrane perforation on hearing threshold among Sudanese patients. Patients & Methods: This is a prospective hospital-based study conducted at Ibn Sina and Khartoum Teaching Hospitals-Otolaryngology Departments (E.N.T), in the period from 1 April – to the 30 of July 2002. Information from both the control and study subjects was taken, using protested questionnaire. Twenty-five normal subjects (50 ears) were taken as a control group selected randomly from the healthy population; their hearing thresholds were tested in order to find a reference level. Seventy-one consequtive patients with uni - or bilateral chronic suppurative otitis media (100 perforated ears) were taken as a study group. Results: The hearing threshold of the control Sudanese subjects was 17dB. This was obtained by computing the mean for the human speech frequencies (500, 1000, 2000Hz). The lower frequencies were affected regardless of side, site and area of the perforation. Conductive hearing loss was the commonest type (79%). The commonest site of the perforations was the central site (90%) followed by posteroinferior 3%. The commonest area of tympanic membrane perforations was the subtotal area (54%), followed by large central perforations (25%). The greatest hearing loss was found to be in the posteroinferior and anterio-superior perforation of the drum compartment. Conclusion and recommendations From this study, we can conclude that regardless of the area, the site of tympanic membrane perforation is the most important factor affecting hearing threshold. The posterior central perforation having the greater effect for this reason, any patients with the posteroinferior and anterio-superior perforations should have repair of tympanic membrane (myringoplaty)

Practical Volatility Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management

Being able to choose most suitable volatility model and distribution specification is a more demanding task. This paper introduce an analyzing procedure using the Kullback-Leibler information criteria (KLIC) as a statistical tool to evaluate and compare the predictive abilities of possibly misspecified density forecast models. The main advantage of this statistical tool is that we use the censored likelihood functions to compute the tail minimum of the KLIC, to compare the performance of a density forecast models in the tails. We include an illustrative simulation and an empirical application to compare a set of distributions, including symmetric/asymmetric distribution, and a family of GARCH volatility models. We highlight the use of our approach to a daily index, the Kuala Lumpur Composite index (KLCI). Our results shows that the choice of the conditional distribution appear to be a more dominant factor in determining the adequacy of density forecasts than the choice of volatility model. Furthermore, the results support the Skewed for KLCI return distribution

Practical Volatility Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management

Being able to choose most suitable volatility model and distribution specification is a more demanding task. This paper introduce an analyzing procedure using the Kullback-Leibler information criteria (KLIC) as a statistical tool to evaluate and compare the predictive abilities of possibly misspecified density forecast models. The main advantage of this statistical tool is that we use the censored likelihood functions to compute the tail minimum of the KLIC, to compare the performance of a density forecast models in the tails. We include an illustrative simulation and an empirical application to compare a set of distributions, including symmetric/asymmetric distribution, and a family of GARCH volatility models. We highlight the use of our approach to a daily index, the Kuala Lumpur Composite index (KLCI). Our results shows that the choice of the conditional distribution appear to be a more dominant factor in determining the adequacy of density forecasts than the choice of volatility model. Furthermore, the results support the Skewed for KLCI return distribution