Three essays on the economics of crime

This thesis analyses three research questions on the Economics of crime using econometric techniques on panel level and individual level data sets in England and Wales. Chapter one focuses on the swiftness in the justice system and its effects on crime rates. Using a unique data set for court waiting times in days in England and Wales, and utilising a fixed effects model and instrumental variable approach, we find that effects vary on what type of crime it is. Chapters two and three explore how effective non-custodial sentences can be in reducing crime and reoffending rates. In particular, chapter two focuses on alternatives to custody on four different crime categories and chapter three uses individual level data and analyses the effects of Community Resolution on the recidivism rates for first time, low level offenders. The analysis in chapter two on sentencing in England and Wales finds after controlling for socio-economic variables in each area, that alternatives to custody can be effective at reducing certain types of crime. Chapter three uses individual level data from Norfolk and Suffolk Police and finds that Community Resolution can significantly reduce reoffending rates and time to reoffending

Alternatives to Custody: Evidence from Police Force Areas in England and Wales

England and Wales have some of the highest incarceration rates in the developed world. Recent policy reforms have focused on developing alternatives to custody that offer credible protection for the public, and justice for victims of crime. This article uses unique detailed panel-level data acquired from the Ministry of Justice for all Police Force Areas from 2002 to 2013 in England and Wales to analyse the effects of custodial and non-custodial sentences on recorded crime. Our results suggest that non-custodial sentences can be an effective alternative to custody at reducing property crime but their effect is less consistent for violent crime. This suggests that non-custodial sentences are credible, cost-effective substitutes to incarceration

Associations between primary care recorded cannabis use and mental ill health in the UK : a population-based retrospective cohort study using UK primary care data

BACKGROUND: Cannabis use is a global public health issue associated with increased risks of developing mental health disorders, especially in young people. We aimed to investigate the relationships between cannabis exposure and risks of receiving mental illness diagnoses or treatment as outcomes. METHODS: A population based, retrospective, open cohort study using patients recorded in 'IQVIA medical research data', a UK primary care database. Read codes were used to confirm patients with recorded exposure to cannabis use who were matched up to two unexposed patients. We examined the risk of developing three categories of mental ill health: depression, anxiety or serious mental illness (SMI). RESULTS: At study entry, the exposed cohort had an increased likelihood of having experienced mental ill health [odds ratio (OR) 4.13; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.99-4.27] and mental ill health-related prescription (OR 2.95; 95% CI 2.86-3.05) compared to the unexposed group. During the study period we found that exposure to cannabis was associated with an increased risk of developing any mental disorder [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.73; 95% CI 2.59-2.88], also noted when examining by subtype of disorder: anxiety (aHR 2.46; 95% CI 2.29-2.64), depression (aHR 2.34; 95% CI 2.20-2.49) and SMI (aHR 6.41; 95% CI 5.42-7.57). These results remained robust in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: These findings point to the potential need for a public health approach to the management of people misusing cannabis. However, there is a gross under-recording of cannabis use in GP records, as seen by the prevalence of recorded cannabis exposure substantially lower than self-reported survey records

The Dynamics of Intergenerational Family Abuse: A Focus on Child Maltreatment and Violence and Abuse in Intimate Relationships

The intergenerational cycle of violence hypothesis (often summarily described as 'violence begets violence') refers to assumptions or hypotheses about the consequences of child abuse and neglect in relation to a number of different outcomes, including its perpetuation across generations. This article reviews some of the channels by which this cycle of abuse can be perpetuated and suggests that this may occur without any genetic link. A mechanism for such transmission is suggested. It also critically analyzes the empirical literature and the implications of incorrectly identifying an intergenerational transmission mechanism. While the majority of the empirical papers find evidence of the intergenerational cycle, a large number of them do not control for endogeneity or have other methodological flaws. It discusses evidence on effectiveness of policies and concludes by pointing out the need for careful design to correctly capture the underlying relationship between experiencing childhood abuse and neglect and perpetrating child abuse in adulthood.</p

Court Waiting Times data by Police Force Area in England and Wales (1994-2008)

This is a dataset that forms the basis for the paper "Classical Deterrence Theory Revisited" published in the European Journal of Criminology

Classical deterrence theory revisited: an empirical analysis of Police Force Areas in England and Wales

The severity, certainty and celerity (swiftness) of punishment are theorised to influence offending through deterrence. Yet celerity is only occasionally included in empirical studies of criminal activity and the three deterrence factors have rarely been analysed in one empirical model. We address this gap with an analysis using unique panel data of recorded theft, burglary and violence against the person for 41 Police Force Areas in England and Wales using variables that capture these three theorised factors of deterrence. Police detection reduces subsequent burglary and theft but not violence while severity appears to reduce burglary but not theft or violent crime. We find that variation in the celerity of sanction has a significant impact on theft offences but not on burglary or violence offences. Increased detection (certainty) is associated with reduced theft and burglary but not violence. Increased average prison sentences reduce burglary only. We account for these results in terms of data challenges and the likely different motivations underlying violent and acquisitive crime