A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?

Predicting historic temperatures based on tree rings, ice cores, and other natural proxies is a difficult endeavor. The relationship between proxies and temperature is weak and the number of proxies is far larger than the number of target data points. Furthermore, the data contain complex spatial and temporal dependence structures which are not easily captured with simple models. In this paper, we assess the reliability of such reconstructions and their statistical significance against various null models. We find that the proxies do not predict temperature significantly better than random series generated independently of temperature. Furthermore, various model specifications that perform similarly at predicting temperature produce extremely different historical backcasts. Finally, the proxies seem unable to forecast the high levels of and sharp run-up in temperature in the 1990s either in-sample or from contiguous holdout blocks, thus casting doubt on their ability to predict such phenomena if in fact they occurred several hundred years ago. We propose our own reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere average annual land temperature over the last millennium, assess its reliability, and compare it to those from the climate science literature. Our model provides a similar reconstruction but has much wider standard errors, reflecting the weak signal and large uncertainty encountered in this setting.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS398 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Description of Atmospheric Conditions at the Pierre Auger Observatory Using Meteorological Measurements and Models

Atmospheric conditions at the site of a cosmic ray observatory must be known well for reconstructing observed extensive air showers, especially when measured using the fluorescence technique. For the Pierre Auger Observatory, a sophisticated network of atmospheric monitoring devices has been conceived. Part of this monitoring was a weather balloon program to measure atmospheric state variables above the Observatory. To use the data in reconstructions of air showers, monthly models have been constructed. Scheduled balloon launches were abandoned and replaced with launches triggered by high-energetic air showers as part of a rapid monitoring system. Currently, the balloon launch program is halted and atmospheric data from numerical weather prediction models are used. A description of the balloon measurements, the monthly models as well as the data from the numerical weather prediction are presented

The Pierre Auger Observatory: Results on Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Rays

The focus of this article is on recent results on ultra-high energy cosmic rays obtained with the Pierre Auger Observatory. The world's largest instrument of this type and its performance are described. The observations presented here include the energy spectrum, the primary particle composition, limits on the fluxes of photons and neutrinos and a discussion of the anisotropic distribution of the arrival directions of the most energetic particles. Finally, plans for the construction of a Northern Auger Observatory in Colorado, USA, are discussed.Comment: Proceedings of the International Workshop on Advances in Cosmic Ray Science, Waseda University, Shinjuku, Tokyo, Japan, March 2008; to be published in the Journal of the Physical Society of Japan (JPSJ) supplemen

Was the Universe Reionized by Massive Population-III Stars?

The WMAP satellite has measured a large optical depth to electron scattering after cosmological recombination of 0.17+-0.04, implying significant reionization of the primordial gas only ~200 million years after the big bang. However, the most recent overlap of intergalactic HII regions must have occured at z<9 based on the Lyman-alpha forest constraint on the thermal history of the intergalactic medium. Here we argue that a first generation of metal-free stars with a heavy (rather than Salpeter) mass function is therefore required to account for much of the inferred optical depth. This conclusion holds if feedback regulates star formation in early dwarf galaxies as observed in present-day dwarfs.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, replaced to match version accepted by ApJ Letter

Reionization of Hydrogen and Helium by Early Stars and Quasars

We compute the reionization histories of hydrogen and helium due to the ionizing radiation fields produced by stars and quasars. For the quasars we use a model based on halo-merger rates that reproduces all known properties of the quasar luminosity function at high redshifts. The less constrained properties of the ionizing radiation produced by stars are modeled with two free parameters: (i) a transition redshift, z_tran, above which the stellar population is dominated by massive, zero-metallicity stars and below which it is dominated by a Scalo mass function; (ii) the product of the escape fraction of stellar ionizing photons from their host galaxies and the star-formation efficiency, f_esc f_*. We constrain the allowed range of these free parameters at high redshifts based on the lack of the HI Gunn-Peterson trough at z<6 and the upper limit on the total intergalactic optical depth for electron scattering, tau_es<0.18, from recent cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments. We find that quasars ionize helium by a redshift z~4, but cannot reionize hydrogen by themselves before z~6. A major fraction of the allowed combinations of f_esc f_* and z_tran lead to an early peak in the ionized fraction due to metal-free stars at high redshifts. This sometimes results in two reionization epochs, namely an early HII or HeIII overlap phase followed by recombination and a second overlap phase. Even if early overlap is not achieved, the peak in the visibility function for scattering of the CMB often coincides with the early ionization phase rather than with the actual reionization epoch. Consequently, tau_es does not correspond directly to the reionization redshift. We generically find values of tau_es>7%, that should be detectable by the MAP satellite.Comment: 33 pages, 10 figures, Accepted for publication in Ap

Searching for an anomalous tˉqγ\bar t q \gamma coupling via single top quark production at a γγ\gamma\gamma collider

We investigate the potential of a high-energy $\gamma\gamma$ collider to detect an anomalous $\bar t q \gamma$ coupling from observation of the reaction $\gamma \gamma \to t\bar q$, $\bar t q$, where $q=c$ or $u$. We find that with $b$-tagging and suitable kinematic cuts this process should be observable if the anomalous coupling $\kappa/\Lambda$ is no less than about 0.05/TeV, where $\Lambda$ is the scale of new physics associated with the anomalous interaction. This improves upon the bound possible from observation of top decays at the Tevatron.Comment: 13 pages, RevTeX, 1 PS figur

Gravitational Lensing of the SDSS High-Redshift Quasars

We predict the effects of gravitational lensing on the color-selected flux-limited samples of z~4.3 and z>5.8 quasars, recently published by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Our main findings are: (i) The lensing probability should be 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than for conventional surveys. The expected fraction of multiply-imaged quasars is highly sensitive to redshift and the uncertain slope of the bright end of the luminosity function, beta_h. For beta_h=2.58 (3.43) we find that at z~4.3 and i*<20.0 the fraction is ~4% (13%) while at z~6 and z*<20.2 the fraction is ~7% (30%). (ii) The distribution of magnifications is heavily skewed; sources having the redshift and luminosity of the SDSS z>5.8 quasars acquire median magnifications of med(mu_obs)~1.1-1.3 and mean magnifications of ~5-50. Estimates of the quasar luminosity density at high redshift must therefore filter out gravitationally-lensed sources. (iii) The flux in the Gunn-Peterson trough of the highest redshift (z=6.28) quasar is known to be f_lambda<3 10^-19 erg/sec/cm^2/Angstrom. Should this quasar be multiply imaged, we estimate a 40% chance that light from the lens galaxy would have contaminated the same part of the quasar spectrum with a higher flux. Hence, spectroscopic studies of the epoch of reionization need to account for the possibility that a lens galaxy, which boosts the quasar flux, also contaminates the Gunn-Peterson trough. (iv) Microlensing by stars should result in ~1/3 of multiply imaged quasars in the z>5.8 catalog varying by more than 0.5 magnitudes over the next decade. The median equivalent width would be lowered by ~20% with respect to the intrinsic value due to differential magnification of the continuum and emission-line regions.Comment: 27 pages, 10 figures. Expansion on the discussion in astro-ph/0203116. Replaced with version accepted for publication in Ap

Apparent first-order wetting and anomalous scaling in the two-dimensional Ising model

The global phase diagram of wetting in the two-dimensional (2d) Ising model is obtained through exact calculation of the surface excess free energy. Besides a surface field for inducing wetting, a surface-coupling enhancement is included. The wetting transition is critical (second order) for any finite ratio of surface coupling J_s to bulk coupling J, and turns first order in the limit J_s/J to infinity. However, for J_s/J much larger than 1 the critical region is exponentially small and practically invisible to numerical studies. A distinct pre-asymptotic regime exists in which the transition displays first-order character. Surprisingly, in this regime the surface susceptibility and surface specific heat develop a divergence and show anomalous scaling with an exponent equal to 3/2.Comment: This new version presents the exact solution and its properties whereas the older version was based on an approximate numerical study of the mode

Detection of Gravitational Waves from the Coalescence of Population-III Remnants with Advanced LIGO

The comoving mass density of massive black hole (MBH) remnants from pre-galactic star formation could have been similar in magnitude to the mass-density of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in the present-day universe. We show that the fraction of MBHs that coalesce during the assembly of SMBHs can be extracted from the rate of ring-down gravitational waves that are detectable by Advanced LIGO. Based on the SMBH formation history inferred from the evolution of the quasar luminosity function, we show that an observed event rate of 1 per year will constrain the SMBH mass fraction that was contributed by MBHs coalescence down to a level of ~10^-6 for 20 solar mass MBH remnants (or ~10^-4 for 260 solar mass remnants).Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures. Submitted to ApJ Letter

Non-equilibrium Dynamics of Finite Interfaces

We present an exact solution to an interface model representing the dynamics of a domain wall in a two-phase Ising system. The model is microscopically motivated, yet we find that in the scaling regime our results are consistent with those obtained previously from a phenomenological, coarse-grained Langevin approach.Comment: 12 pages LATEX (figures available on request), Oxford preprint OUTP-94-07