Development and validation of a clinical score to estimate progression to severe or critical state in Covid-19 pneumonia hospitalized patients

The prognosis of a patient with Covid-19 pneumonia is uncertain. Our objective was to establish a predictive model of disease progression to facilitate early decision-making. A retrospective study was performed of patients admitted with Covid-19 pneumonia, classified as severe (admission to the intensive care unit, mechanic invasive ventilation, or death) or non-severe. A predictive model based on clinical, analytical, and radiological parameters was built. The probability of progression to severe disease was estimated by logistic regression analysis. Calibration and discrimination (receiver operating characteristics curves and AUC) were assessed to determine model performance. During the study period 1,152 patients presented with Covid-19 infection, of whom 229 (19.9%) were admitted for pneumonia. During hospitalization, 51 (22.3%) progressed to severe disease, of whom 26 required ICU care (11.4); 17 (7.4%) underwent invasive mechanical ventilation, and 32 (14%) died of any cause. Five predictors determined within 24 hours of admission were identified: Diabetes, Age, Lymphocyte count, SaO2, and pH (DALSH score). The prediction model showed a good clinical performance, including discrimination (AUC 0.87 CI 0.81, 0.92) and calibration (Brier score = 0.11). In total, 0%, 12%, and 50% of patients with severity risk scores ≤5%, 6-25%, and >25% exhibited disease progression, respectively. A simple risk score based on five factors predicts disease progression and facilitates early decision-making according to prognosis.Carlos III Health Institute, Spain, Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (SPAIN) and the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER)Instituto de Salud Carlos II

Pleural effusion due to nonmalignant gastrointestinal disease

Although pleural effusion is a frequent finding in clinical practice, determining its aetiology may be challenging, and up to 20% of cases remain undiagnosed. Pleural effusion may occur secondary to a nonmalignant gastrointestinal disease. A gastrointestinal origin is confirmed based on a review of the medical history of the patient, thorough physical examination and abdominal ultrasonography. In this process, it is crucial to correctly interpret findings on pleural fluid obtained by thoracentesis. In the absence of high clinical suspicion, identifying the aetiology of this type of effusion may be difficult. Clinical symptoms will be determined by the gastrointestinal process causing pleural effusion. In this setting, correct diagnosis relies on the specialist's ability to evaluate pleural fluid appearance, test for the appropriate biochemical parameters and determine whether it is necessary or not to send a specimen for culture. The established diagnosis will determine how pleural effusion is approached. Although this clinical condition is self-limited, many cases will require a multidisciplinary approach because some effusions can only be resolved with specific therapies