Evaluation of Sixteen Gridded Precipitation Datasets over the Caribbean Region Using Gauge Observations

The existence of several gridded precipitation products (GPP) has facilitated studies related to climate change, climate modeling, as well as a better understanding of the physical processes underpinning this key variable. Due to complexities in estimating rainfall, gridded datasets exhibit different levels of accuracy across regions, even when they are developed at relatively high resolution or using sophisticated procedures. The performance of 16 GPP are evaluated over the Caribbean region, which includes the Caribbean Islands, and portions of Central South America. Monthly data for sixty weather stations are used as a reference for the period 1983–2010. The 16 GPP include six products based on station data only, two that combine ground station and satellite information, two merging station and reanalysis information, four based on reanalysis, and two using multisource information. The temporal resolution of the GPP ranged between daily and monthly and spatial resolution from 0.033° to 0.5°. The methodological approach employed combined a comparison of regional and sub-regional precipitation annual cycles, the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) index, as well as several metrics derived from the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Overall, the best performances were obtained from GPCC025 and MSWEP2, likely reflecting the positive impact of the large number of station data utilized in their development. It is also demonstrated that a higher spatial resolution does not always mean better accuracy. There is a need for this kind of assessment when undertaking climate studies in regions like the Caribbean where resolution is a significant consideration. ERA5 performed best among the reanalyses analyzed and has the potential to be used to develop regionally based GPP by applying bias correction or downscaling techniques. The methodological approach employed provides a comprehensive and robust evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of GPP in the Caribbean region

R_SVsequia: Nuevo servicio climático automatizado para el monitoreo de la sequía meteorológica en Cuba

En este trabajo se describe el desarrollo de R_SVsequia, un nuevo sistema automático para procesamiento de la lluvia y el monitoreo de la sequía en el INSMET. La aplicación se desarrolló utilizando RStudio IDE y el software R, y tiene la capacidad de realizar todas las tareas con un alto nivel de eficiencia y operatividad. La ejecución de R_SVsequia sólo depende de los datos pluviométricos del Instituto Nacional de Recursos Hidráulicos y de un conjunto de parámetros que se pasan a través de un archivo de lista de nombres. El sistema produce muchos archivos de datos que se resumen en tablas, gráficos y mapas, con fines de seguimiento o pueden utilizarse para actividades de investigación.  En esencia, R_SVsequia representa una innovación en el marco de servicios climáticos del INSMET, relacionados con el monitoreo de la sequía y añade eficiencia, versatilidad y confiabilidad en la ejecución de los procesos y sus resultados, respecto a sistemas anteriores

Wind resources assessment of Cuba in future climate scenarios

A preliminary analysis of the behavior of the wind speed is presented using the regional climate model PRECIS, focusing on changes in the distribution of this variable for three periods of 30 years in the future 2011-2040, 20412070 and 2071-2099. The regional climate model PRECIS is used in high resolution scenarios of climate change SRESA1B, using boundary conditions from the MCG ECHAM5 and 6 of the 16 members of the set of perturbed physics HadCM3 MCG. It was found that changes in wind speed will be higher in the eastern and northern coast, becoming statistically significant for the second half of this century with an increase in wind magnitude between 0.1 and 0.4 m s−1. It is concluded that these areas of increased wind power match with the current projection of the Cuban wind program where the construction of 13 new wind farms are contemplated.Se presenta un análisis preliminar del comportamiento de la velocidad del viento, utilizando el modelo climático regional PRECIS, centrándose en los cambios en la distribución de esta variable para tres períodos de 30 años en el futuro 2011-2040, 2041-2070 y 2071-2099. Se emplea el modelo climático regional PRECIS en escenarios de cambio climático de alta resolución SRESA1B, utilizando condiciones de frontera de MCG ECHAM5 y 6 de los 16 miembros del conjunto de física perturbada HadCM3 MCG. Se comprueba cómo los cambios en la velocidad del viento serán mayores en la región oriental y costa norte del país, siendo estadísticamente significativos para la segunda mitad del siglo XXI, con un aumento en la magnitud del viento entre 0.1 y 0.4 m s−1. Se concluye que estas áreas de aumento del potencial eólico coinciden con la proyección actual del programa eólico cubano donde se contempla la construcción de 13 nuevos parques eólicos

Proyección de extremos climáticos futuros en Cuba bajo escenarios de geoingeniería

Ante la evidencia que confirma el calentamiento del sistema climático y la preocupación por las insuficientes medidas de respuesta, el Manejo de la Radiación Solar (SRM) ha sido considerado como una acción adicional para limitar el aumento de la temperatura global. A pesar de que el SRM es muy controvertido, una evaluación de los efectos potenciales en los extremos climáticos podría proporcionar elementos adicionales sobre sus implicaciones. En el presente trabajo se realiza un análisis de los posibles efectos que tendría el SRM comparando las proyecciones sobre el clima futuro de Cuba bajo escenarios SRM, con respecto a un escenario de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Se utilizaron los datos diarios de precipitación y temperaturas máximas y mínimas correspondientes a las salidas del modelo HadGEM2-ES para el escenario RCP4.5 y los dos esquemas SRM G3 y G4. Con esta información se calcularon y contrastaron 10 indicadores de extremos climáticos en el futuro 2020-2070 con respecto al período de referencia 1970-2000. Los resultados muestran que la posible implementación de SRM con aerosoles estratosféricos podría mejorar levemente el escenario futuro proyectado bajo RCP4.5 en relación a las temperaturas, al atenuar el aumento o disminución de extremos relacionados con el régimen térmico. Sin embargo, en el caso de precipitaciones extremas, los cambios estimados para los escenarios G3 y G4 no son significativamente diferentes de los proyectados bajo RCP4.5

Projected Hydroclimate Changes on Hispaniola Island through the 21st Century in CMIP6 Models

Climate change might increase the frequency and severity of longer-lasting drought in the Caribbean, including in Hispaniola Island. Nevertheless, the hydroclimate changes projected by the state-of-the-art earth system models across the island remain unknown. Here, we assess 21st-century changes in hydroclimate over Hispaniola Island using precipitation, temperature, and surface soil moisture data from the 6th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The resulting analysis indicates, as with the previous 5th Phase of CMIP (CMIP5) models, that Hispaniola Island might see a significant drying through the 21st century. The aridity appears to be robust in most of the island following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 5–8.6, which assumes the “worst case” greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. We find a significant reduction in both annual mean precipitation and surface soil moisture (soil’s upper 10 cm), although it appears to be more pronounced for precipitation (up to 26% and 11% for precipitation and surface soil moisture, respectively). Even though we provide insights into future hydroclimate changes on Hispaniola Island, CMIP6’s intrinsic uncertainties and native horizontal resolution precludes us to better assess these changes at local scales. As such, we consider future dynamical downscaling efforts that might help us to better inform policy-makers and stakeholders in terms of drought risk

A new long term gridded daily precipitation dataset at high-resolution for Cuba (CubaPrec1)

The paper presents a high-resolution (-3km) gridded dataset for daily precipitation across Cuba for 1961-2008, called CubaPrec1. The dataset was built using the information from the data series of 630 stations from the network operated by the National Institute of Water Resources. The original station data series were quality controlled using a spatial coherence process of the data, and the missing values were estimated on each day and location independently. Using the filled data series, a grid of 3 × 3 km spatial resolution was constructed by estimating daily precipitation and their corresponding uncertainties at each grid box. This new product represents a precise spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation in Cuba and provides a useful baseline for future studies in hydrology, climatology, and meteorology. The data collection described is available on zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.784784

Generating Projections for the Caribbean at 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 °C from a High-Resolution Ensemble

Six members of the Hadley Centre’s Perturbed Physics Ensemble for the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project are downscaled using the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) RCM (Regional Climate Model). Climate scenarios at long-term temperature goals (LTTGs) of 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial warming levels are generated for the Caribbean and six sub-regions for annual and seasonal timescales. Under a high emissions scenario, the LTTGs are attained in the mid-2020s, end of the 2030s, and the early 2050s, respectively. At 1.5 °C, the region is slightly cooler than the globe, land areas warmer than ocean, and for the later months, the north is warmer than the south. The far western and southern Caribbean including the eastern Caribbean island chain dry at 1.5 °C (up to 50%). At 2.0 °C, the warming and drying intensify and there is a reversal of a wet tendency in parts of the north Caribbean. Drying in the rainfall season accounts for much of the annual change. There is limited further intensification of the region-wide drying at 2.5 °C. Changes in wind strength in the Caribbean low-level jet region may contribute to the patterns seen. There are implications for urgent and targeted adaptation planning in the Caribbean