Summary of bluetongue virus occurrences (yellow points) available for model calibration worldwide.

<p>Dotted black shading represents the early belt of BTV occurrence.</p

Predicted potential distribution maps for bluetongue virus under future climatic conditions.

<p>Models were calibrated across present-day conditions, and transferred to the future climate conditions. Each model is the median of all climate models across each representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Orange areas are modeled suitable conditions; white areas are unsuitable conditions for BTV occurrences.</p

Current potential distribution map for bluetongue virus based on present-day climatic conditions.

<p>Blue shaded areas are modeled suitable conditions, and white areas are unsuitable conditions.</p

Summary of the modeled global distribution of bluetongue virus under both current and future climatic conditions to show the stability of predictions at present and into the future, and to illustrate differences among representative concentration pathways (RCPs).

<p>Dark blue represents model stability under both current and future conditions, light blue represents low agreement between current and future conditions, dark purple represents agreement among all climate models in anticipating potential distributional areas in the future, and light purple indicates low agreement between diverse climate models as regards distributional potential in the future.</p

Relationship of additional independent BTV records to areas predicted as suitable for bluetongue virus occurrences.

<p>Yellow points are independent BTV occurrence data from the Old World and North America. Blue areas are represented as suitable and white as unsuitable.</p

Maximum Clade Credibility tree based on all sequences of the medium minigenomic segment (M) of RVFV isolates in the study.

<p>Country of origin is indicated by color of the tree branches and branch tips. An online version of the tree is available via <a href="https://figshare.com/s/1efd1db044bcaa9e35a9" target="_blank">https://figshare.com/s/1efd1db044bcaa9e35a9</a>.</p

Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF) Bayesian skyride plots for all three RVFV segments, representing the relationship between reconstructed effective population size and calendar year.

<p>Blue lines show the boundaries of the 95% highest posterior density interval.</p

Connectedness of countries with Rift Valley Fever outbreaks based on Markov Jumps reconstruction using the medium minigenomic segment (M) of RVFV isolates in the study.

<p>Connections between countries are presented as lines with arrows to refer to the direction of movement. Line thickness identifies the median number of jumps between each country pair.</p

Occurrence records of <i>Ixodes ricinus</i> derived from various sources.

<p>Blue crosses indicate the original set of occurrence records; yellow circles are occurrence records retained after filtering the data.</p

Countries and dates of sampling available for the complete sequences of the small, medium, and large segments of RVFV strains across Africa, and Arabian Peninsula.

<p>Countries and dates of sampling available for the complete sequences of the small, medium, and large segments of RVFV strains across Africa, and Arabian Peninsula.</p