Using Option Prices and Open Interest to Forecast Future Volatility of a Small Cap Biotech Security Facing a Binary Event

The purpose of this study is to determine the accuracy of price targets set by options traders for small cap biotech companies approaching a Food and Drug (FDA) event. The study also highlights whether or not an increase in open interest improves the accuracy of options traders target price estimates. The thesis for this paper states that the options estimates of future price movement are accurate predictors of the future price one day before the FDA event. This thesis studies small cap biotech stocks with an approaching FDA approval or advisory committee meeting for the time period of December 2007 to April 201 3. The conclusions are that the price targets are significantly greater than the realized price. and that open interest does not significantly improve the accuracy of these contracts

Digital technologies for supporting the informed consent of children and young people in research: the potential for transforming current research ethics practice

Much research at the intersection of technology and ethics focuses on the impact of technological developments and innovation on wider society. This discussion considers the intersection of ethics and technology from the opposite direction; that is, how technology itself can support the ethical participation of people – particularly children and young people – in research. Our central argument is that the use of digital technologies (laptops, PCs, tablet devices, smartphones) offers the potential to support the presentation of information about research topics and methodologies, and children’s decision-making about their own participation, more effectively than by traditional, often paper-based, methods

A review of productivity analysis of the New Zealand construction industry

Abstract In recent years there has been a rising interest in the level of productivity and efficiency of the New Zealand construction industry. This interest has meant that there has been an increased use of statistical techniques to determine the productivity and efficiency of the overall industry. The purpose of this paper is to review the various measures that have been used to gauge the levels of productivity and efficiency in the New Zealand construction industry; as well as analyse some of the results to date. Finally, it considers potential areas for future research

A review of the research literature relating to ICT and attainment

Summary of the main report, which examined current research and evidence for the impact of ICT on pupil attainment and learning in school settings and the strengths and limitations of the methodologies used in the research literature

Search for Gravitational-wave Signals Associated with Gamma-Ray Bursts during the Second Observing Run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo

We present the results of targeted searches for gravitational-wave transients associated with gamma-ray bursts during the second observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, which took place from 2016 November to 2017 August. We have analyzed 98 gamma-ray bursts using an unmodeled search method that searches for generic transient gravitational waves and 42 with a modeled search method that targets compact-binary mergers as progenitors of short gamma-ray bursts. Both methods clearly detect the previously reported binary merger signal GW170817, with p-values of <9.38 × 10−6 (modeled) and 3.1 × 10−4 (unmodeled). We do not find any significant evidence for gravitational-wave signals associated with the other gamma-ray bursts analyzed, and therefore we report lower bounds on the distance to each of these, assuming various source types and signal morphologies. Using our final modeled search results, short gamma-ray burst observations, and assuming binary neutron star progenitors, we place bounds on the rate of short gamma-ray bursts as a function of redshift for z ≤ 1. We estimate 0.07–1.80 joint detections with Fermi-GBM per year for the 2019–20 LIGO-Virgo observing run and 0.15–3.90 per year when current gravitational-wave detectors are operating at their design sensitivities

Searches for Gravitational Waves from Known Pulsars at Two Harmonics in 2015–2017 LIGO Data

We present a search for gravitational waves from 222 pulsars with rotation frequencies ≳10 Hz. We use advanced LIGO data from its first and second observing runs spanning 2015–2017, which provides the highest-sensitivity gravitational-wave data so far obtained. In this search we target emission from both the l = m = 2 mass quadrupole mode, with a frequency at twice that of the pulsar's rotation, and the l = 2, m = 1 mode, with a frequency at the pulsar rotation frequency. The search finds no evidence for gravitational-wave emission from any pulsar at either frequency. For the l = m = 2 mode search, we provide updated upper limits on the gravitational-wave amplitude, mass quadrupole moment, and fiducial ellipticity for 167 pulsars, and the first such limits for a further 55. For 20 young pulsars these results give limits that are below those inferred from the pulsars' spin-down. For the Crab and Vela pulsars our results constrain gravitational-wave emission to account for less than 0.017% and 0.18% of the spin-down luminosity, respectively. For the recycled millisecond pulsar J0711−6830 our limits are only a factor of 1.3 above the spin-down limit, assuming the canonical value of 1038 kg m2 for the star's moment of inertia, and imply a gravitational-wave-derived upper limit on the star's ellipticity of 1.2 × 10−8. We also place new limits on the emission amplitude at the rotation frequency of the pulsars

Collaborative working within UK NHS secondary care and across sectors for COPD and the impact of peer review : qualitative findings from the UK National COPD Resources and Outcomes Project

Introduction: We investigated the effects on collaborative work within the UK National Health Service (NHS) of an intervention for service quality improvement: informal, structured, reciprocated, multidisciplinary peer review with feedback and action plans. The setting was care for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Theory and methods: We analysed semi-structured interviews with 43 hospital respiratory consultants, nurses and general managers at 24 intervention and 11 control sites, as part of a UK randomised controlled study, the National COPD Resources and Outcomes Project (NCROP), using Scott’s conceptual framework for action (inter-organisational, intra-organisational, inter-professional and inter-individual). Three areas of care targeted by NCROP involved collaboration across primary and secondary care. Results: Hospital respiratory department collaborations with commissioners and hospital managers varied. Analysis suggested that this is related to team responses to barriers. Clinicians in unsuccessful collaborations told ‘atrocity stories’ of organisational, structural and professional barriers to service improvement. The others removed barriers by working with government and commissioner agendas to ensure continued involvement in patients’ care. Multidisciplinary peer review facilitated collaboration between participants, enabling them to meet, reconcile differences and exchange ideas across boundaries. Conclusions: The data come from the first randomised controlled trial of organisational peer review, adding to research into UK health service collaborative work, which has had a more restricted focus on inter-professional relations. NCROP peer review may only modestly improve collaboration but these data suggest it might be more effective than top-down exhortations to change when collaboration both across and within organisations is required

Optically targeted search for gravitational waves emitted by core-collapse supernovae during the first and second observing runs of advanced LIGO and advanced Virgo

We present the results from a search for gravitational-wave transients associated with core-collapse supernovae observed within a source distance of approximately 20 Mpc during the first and second observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. No significant gravitational-wave candidate was detected. We report the detection efficiencies as a function of the distance for waveforms derived from multidimensional numerical simulations and phenomenological extreme emission models. The sources with neutrino-driven explosions are detectable at the distances approaching 5 kpc, and for magnetorotationally driven explosions the distances are up to 54 kpc. However, waveforms for extreme emission models are detectable up to 28 Mpc. For the first time, the gravitational-wave data enabled us to exclude part of the parameter spaces of two extreme emission models with confidence up to 83%, limited by coincident data coverage. Besides, using ad hoc harmonic signals windowed with Gaussian envelopes, we constrained the gravitational-wave energy emitted during core collapse at the levels of 4.27×10−4  M⊙c2 and 1.28×10−1  M⊙c2 for emissions at 235 and 1304 Hz, respectively. These constraints are 2 orders of magnitude more stringent than previously derived in the corresponding analysis using initial LIGO, initial Virgo, and GEO 600 data