Endogenous categorization of the human development

[EN] The human development index (HDI) is one of the most well-known measures of welfare. We apply clustering techniques to endogenously determine how similar countries are with respect to the HDI, and into how many categories they can be classified. We find that, in contrast to the usual assumption in the United Nations’ Human Development Reports, the number of categories is not fixed and has varied over time, from three in 1990 to four in 2014. We also find that the countries within each category differ from the United Nation’s proposal.SIThis work was supported by Ministerio de Ciencia under Grants ECO2011-29355 and ECO2014-53767-P; Network MOMA under Grant ECO2014-57673-REDT, Junta de Andalucía under Grants SEJ5980 and SEJ4941; and Grupo PAIDI under Grant SEJ426

Sustainability in the Banking Sector: A Predictive Model for the European Banking Union in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis

[EN] Given the central role of banks in financial stability and the recent impact of their insufficient capitalization, this article focuses on finding determinants of their solvency through financial variables. The study considers the European Banking Union framework and the results of the latter stress test exercises, using a panel of the 45 banks based in 15 European countries that were stress tested in 2014, 2016 and 2018. This paper models bank soundness proxied by the stressed tier capital 1 ratio by means of financial indicators representing a CAMELS (Capital, Assets quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk) approach as well as global systemically important financial institutions (G-SIFIs) additional requirements. The model also specifies a dummy covariate referred to the disclosure of corporate social responsibility (CSR) reports, adopting a comprehensive sustainability scheme. The research period starts with the European Banking Union and includes the three exercises conducted since then. We find that financial sustainability is positively correlated with higher capitalization, earnings and liquid assets, while poor quality assets (high non-performing loans) and inefficiency impact negatively on bank soundness. Moreover, it considers the year-scenario interaction either as a fixed or a random effect. The results support capital and liquidity regulation and highlight factors that reinforce banking soundness. They also reveal a positive connection between CSR and banking solvency.S

Energy-water-food security nexus in mung bean production in Iran: an LCA approach

[EN] Mung bean is a very important crop in Iran in both socio-economic and nutritional terms. However, although discussions on food and food security increasingly include sustainability issues, there are no precedents in ac- ademic literature that analyze in depth the nexus between energy, water use and food security in relation to this crop in Iran from an agri-food system approach. Therefore, our main objective is to assess the energy-water-food security (EWFs) nexus and the environmental impact of mung bean production in Iran from a “cradle to fork” approach using different nutritional units (1 kg of beans, 1 kg of proteins, and 1000 kcal) and load allocation criteria. In addition, an economic analysis of the farms is carried out. The results show that the on-farm pro- duction of mung beans is the phase where the largest environmental impacts are concentrated (between 40 % and 96 % of them, including those related to water and energy use), while cooking accounts for more than 50 % of the carbon footprint. The non-renewable cumulative energy demand (NR CED) and total water footprint (TWF) per kilogram of beans (“cradle to fork”) is estimated at 27.4 MJ and 1.55 m3 and the farm Net Margin (NM) is estimated at 3,677 USD per ha. The paper discusses whether mung bean is a low-impact option for protein production, especially when compared to animal products and the importance of using different func- tional units and load allocation criteria to address the issue of EWFs and sustainability. In this regard, further research is needed to improve the environmental efficiency of bean production, which is critical for promoting sustainable diets in line with food security goals.S

Banking solvency assessment: a model based on the Spanish stress test

[ES] En un proceso actual de reestructuración y recapitalización del sector bancario, la solvencia de las entidades de crédito se ha convertido en un factor de creciente importancia, lo que justifica el interés por evaluarla mediante pruebas de resistencia. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar si el nivel de capital tier 1 estimado por los tests de estrés realizados a la banca española en 2012 podía predecirse mediante un modelo de regresión múltiple en el que las variables explicativas fueran ratios extraídas de los estados contables públicos. Los resultados revelan que la ratio de autonomía financiera es la variable de mayor capacidad explicativa si bien el carácter atípico de las entidades participadas por el FROB ha de ser integrado en el modelo.[EN] Spanish financial system is involved in a restructuring and refinancing process and, in 2012, credit institutions have been submitted to a stress test in order to check their solvency and resilience against increasingly worse economic conditions. This study aims to predict those stress test results measured in terms of tier 1 capital by means of multiple regression where indicators are obtained from the financial statements. The results show that autonomy ratio (equity /debt) has a strong predictive capability, although the model should also consider the outlier status of the nationalized banks.S

Could financial statements predict the Spanish banking system stress-test results? A logit analysis

[ES] Las entidades de crédito espa˜nolas afrontan un escenario caracterizado por la crisis financiera y las crecientes exigencias de capital. Sumidas en un proceso de recapitalización y reestructuración, recientemente han sido sometidas a tests de estrés para analizar su nivel de solvencia y su capacidad de resistencia ante un mayor deterioro económico. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar si los resultados de dichas pruebas, medidos en términos de exceso o déficit de capital, pueden predecirse a partir de indicadores extraídos de los estados contables públicos o de la información con relevancia prudencial. Para ello, se aplican tanto un análisis de regresión logística estándar como su versión exacta, que resulta más adecuada dado el bajo tama˜no muestral. Los principales resultados indican que tanto la ratio de autonomía (fondos propios/fondos ajenos) como la calidad de los recursos propios son variables con una gran capacidad predictiva. La principal aportación de este trabajo es revisar y contrastar los resultados de las pruebas de resistencia aplicadas a la banca espa˜ nola, identificando ratios contables que prácticamente permiten llegar a sus mismas conclusiones.[EN] The Spanish financial system faces a new situation defined by a financial crisis and higher capital requirements. These institutions are involved in a restructuring and refinancing process, and have recently been submitted to a stress test in order to check their solvency and resilience against increasingly worse economic conditions. This study aims to predict the stress test results–capital excess or shortfall–by means of indicators obtained from the financial statements and from the Prudential Relevance report. Both standard and exact logistic regressions are used due to the small sample size considered. The results show that both autonomy ratio (equity vs. debt) and best quality capital have a strong predictive capability. The main contribution of this paper is to contrast the Spanish banking stress test results by identifying accounting ratios that allow almost the same conclusions to be reached.S

Predicción del nivel de solvencia de la banca europea a través de la información contable: una aplicación a los "PIIGS"

El inicio en noviembre de 2014 de las funciones del Banco Central Europeo como supervisor bancario único conlleva la realización previa de una nueva prueba o test de estrés a la banca europea. Dicha prueba afectará a unas 130 entidades y, al igual que la realizada en 2011, será coordinada por la Autoridad Bancaria Europea. En los últimos años, ha aumentado el interés por este tipo de tests como elemento de evaluación de la capacidad de los sistemas bancarios de la Unión Europea para responder a las dificultades y tensiones económicas características de este periodo. De hecho, el proceso de reestructuración y recapitalización del sector bancario europeo ha estado condicionado por la solvencia de sus entidades, evaluada mediante este tipo de pruebas. En este contexto, el objetivo de este trabajo es valorar la calidad de la información contable a la hora de predecir el nivel de solvencia de las 42 entidades de crédito sometidas a las últimas pruebas de estrés europeas (2011) pertenecientes al grupo de países más afectados por la crisis financiera, los denominados PIIGS (Portugal, Italia, Irlanda, Grecia y España). A tal fin, se plantea un modelo de regresión multinivel que trate de determinar qué indicadores extraídos de los estados contables públicos permiten una mejor predicción de la solvencia de estas entidades en términos de su ratio de capital tier 1. Palabras clave: Test de estrés, solvencia, PIIGS, tier 1, regresión multinive

Modeling banking solvency under adverse scenarios: Evidence from the ‘PIIGS’ countries

[ES] En los últimos años se han realizado diversas pruebas de estrés a la banca europea con el fin de evaluar su solvencia, condicionando sus resultados las medidas de reestructuración y recapitalización aplicadas al sector. Este trabajo pretende modelizar los niveles de solvencia estimados por las pruebas realizadas en 2011, expresados en términos de capital tier 1, a partir de variables contables, exposición a soberanos e indicadores que definan los escenarios macroeconómicos considerados. El análisis, a través de un modelo de regresión multinivel, se centra en las entidades de los países más afectados por la crisis financiera, los denominados PIIGS (Portugal, Italia, Irlanda, Grecia y España). Los resultados muestran que las ratios contables, conforme a un modelo CAMEL, junto con las variables categóricas relativas a país y escenario y su interacción, ofrecen una buena capacidad predictiva.[EN] Stress tests have recently become one of the usual procedures to assess the resilience of the EU banking systems against economic distress. Their results have also influenced and conditioned the last European banking sector restructuring and recapitalization process. The aim of this paper is to predict the core tier 1 ratio assessed by the 2011 European stress tests by means of a multilevel regression model. Financial ratios, sovereign debt exposures and macroeconomic indicators are considered as explanatory variables. The sample consists of the financial institutions from the so-called PIIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain). The results show that a CAMEL model has good predictive capability when country and scenario dummies and their interaction are included.S

Una experiencia interdisciplinar en la enseñanza de la Teoría de Juegos

Mención honorífica 2014[ES] Aunque tiene muchas aplicaciones, la teoría de juegos se utiliza principalmente en el campo de la Economía y la Empresa. En este contexto, la Teoría de Juegos es un método que se utiliza para analizar la conducta de las empresas, en el sentido de cuáles serán sus posibles estrategias para su inserción, mantenimiento o expansión en los distintos mercados. Por todo ello, la Teoría de Juegos resulta de gran utilidad para estudiar el comportamiento de la economía en temas relacionados con la teoría del oligopolio, ya que el número de empresas en un mercado oligopolístico es pequeño, y cada una debe actuar estratégicamente puesto que sus beneficios van a depender no solo de cuánto produce cada una sino también de cuánto producen las demás. Cada una de las empresas, a la hora de tomar la decisión de cuánto producir, debe preguntarse cómo afecta su comportamiento a las decisiones de producción que tomen el resto

Assessment of the environmental impact and economic performance of cacao agroforestry systems in the Ecuadorian Amazon region: An LCA approach

[EN] Ecuador is the third largest cacao exporter in the world. Up to 10 % of Ecuador's cacao production is grown in the Amazon region, mostly under conventional (CA) and organic (OA) agroforestry systems. Despite the importance of cacao in this area, no previous studies on its environmental impact and economic viability have yet been carried out. The main objective of this research is to fill this gap and, more specifically, perform a comparative analysis between CA and OA systems. For this purpose, primary information was gathered from 90 farms (44 conventional and 46 organic ones) that implement land management practices. The environmental performance of cacao production was assessed using a life cycle analysis methodology, with a cradle-to-farm gate approach. Up to twelve impact categories and five environmental and monetary efficiency indicators were estimated based on three functional units (1 kg of cacao, 1 kg of output sold, and 1 ha). Additionally, an economic viability analysis was performed, focused on profitability. The results show that organic management allows to reduce the environmental impact in all the analyzed categories, except for the land footprint, and improved the environmental and economic efficiency of agroforestry systems. The economic analysis shows no statistically significant differences between CA and OA profitability (net margin), which can be improved by selling co-products. Despite the low environmental impact of both types of system, economic profitability is certainly one of the weaknesses of cacao production in the Ecuadorian Amazon region. This study contributes to develop technical, production-related and political actions that could improve the economic cacao production situation without jeopardizing the environmental benefit obtained by these systems.SIWe would like to thank the Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Agropecuarias (INIAP, National Agricultural and Livestock Farming Research Institute) and the Estación Experimental Central de la Amazonía (Central Experimental Station of the Amazon region), in particular their technical, administrative and on-site staff. Our gratitude goes as well to the University of Cordoba, the Instituto de Sociología y Estudios Campesinos (ISEC, Institute of Sociology and Peasant Studies), and the Department of Economics and Statistics of the Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences at the Universidad de León (Spain)

Agroecology as a means to improve energy metabolism and economic management in smallholder cocoa farmers in the Ecuadorian Amazon

[EN] Cocoa is one of the most important crops in Ecuador, especially in the Ecuadorian Amazon, where >60,000 ha are dedicated to cocoa; 48,600 ha in production in 2021. Most of the cocoa area (82 %) is managed by smallholders with <10 ha under cultivation. Despite the socioeconomic and environmental importance of these systems, there are no previous studies that provide an integrated view of the energy metabolism and economic viability of different smallholder management styles. Consequently, the objective of this work is twofold: a) to estimate the aggregate energy and economic metabolism of small cocoa producers (< 10 ha) in the Ecuadorian Amazon and b) to investigate the existing differences in the technical-economic management styles of the crop. To this end, primary data were collected from a statistically representative sample of cocoa-growing areas distributed among 279 producers in 86 communities in the region, using the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology and a cost-benefit analysis associated with management. Our data show that most smallholder farmers produce cocoa in low-input diversified agroforest system with a high share of unpaid family labor. At the Amazon level, smallholder farmers (< 10 ha) produced 16.9 million tons of food for the market with a nonrenewable cumulative energy demand (NR CED) of 53.8 TJ (1343 MJ/ha), a carbon footprint (CF) of 8.16 Mt. CO2-eq. (203.9 kg CO2-eq/ha), and a net margin of 19.07 million $(476.8$/ha). On average, cocoa yields were estimated at 288 kg/ha, resulting in a NR CED and carbon footprint (CF) per kg of cocoa of 4.18 MJ and 0.98 kg CO2-eq. Despite its apparent homogeneity, three distinct styles of crop management were identified by a cluster analysis. The results suggest that farms with good organic/agroecological management can have a similar income generating capacity to the more intensive conventional farms evaluated, but with better environmental outcomes. Consequently, the paper finally discusses the need to promote public actions and policies that allow for the scaling up and improvement of successful agroecological management in the Ecuadorian Amazon.SIThis study was funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 MSCARISE 2019 Programme under grant agreement 872384 - UNDERTREES project. Our thanks to: Institute of Sociology and Peasant Studies (ISEC), University of Córdoba (UCO) and University of León, Spain. To the National Institute of Agricultural and Livestock Research (INIAP), Central Experimental Station of the Amazon (EECA), to its technical, administrative and field staff, to the Research Fund for Agrobiodiversity, Seeds and Sustainable Agriculture (FIASA), to César García of the Transfer Directorate of the INIAP, Ecuador