Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation

Rule-Based Forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses judgment to develop and apply rules for combining extrapolations. The judgment comes from two sources, forecasting expertise and domain knowledge. Forecasting expertise is based on more than a half century of research. Domain knowledge is obtained in a structured way; one example of domain knowledge is managers= expectations about trends, which we call “causal forces.” Time series are described in terms of 28 conditions, which are used to assign weights to extrapolations. Empirical results on multiple sets of time series show that RBF produces more accurate forecasts than those from traditional extrapolation methods or equal-weights combined extrapolations. RBF is most useful when it is based on good domain knowledge, the domain knowledge is important, the series is well behaved (such that patterns can be identified), there is a strong trend in the data, and the forecast horizon is long. Under ideal conditions, the error for RBF’s forecasts were one-third less than those for equal-weights combining. When these conditions are absent, RBF neither improves nor harms forecast accuracy. Some of RBF’s rules can be used with traditional extrapolation procedures. In a series of studies, rules based on causal forces improved the selection of forecasting methods, the structuring of time series, and the assessment of prediction intervals

A New Classification System for the Actions of IRS Chemicals Traditionally Used For Malaria Control

Knowledge of how mosquitoes respond to insecticides is of paramount importance in understanding how an insecticide functions to prevent disease transmission. A suite of laboratory assays was used to quantitatively characterize mosquito responses to toxic, contact irritant, and non-contact spatial repellent actions of standard insecticides. Highly replicated tests of these compounds over a range of concentrations proved that all were toxic, some were contact irritants, and even fewer were non-contact repellents. Of many chemicals tested, three were selected for testing in experimental huts to confirm that chemical actions documented in laboratory tests are also expressed in the field. The laboratory tests showed the primary action of DDT is repellent, alphacypermethrin is irritant, and dieldrin is only toxic. These tests were followed with hut studies in Thailand against marked-released populations. DDT exhibited a highly protective level of repellency that kept mosquitoes outside of huts. Alphacypermethrin did not keep mosquitoes out, but its strong irritant action caused them to prematurely exit the treated house. Dieldrin was highly toxic but showed no irritant or repellent action. Based on the combination of laboratory and confirmatory field data, we propose a new paradigm for classifying chemicals used for vector control according to how the chemicals actually function to prevent disease transmission inside houses. The new classification scheme will characterize chemicals on the basis of spatial repellent, contact irritant and toxic actions

The relationship, structure and profiles of schizophrenia measurements: a post-hoc analysis of the baseline measures from a randomized clinical trial

<p>Background</p> <p>To fully assess the various dimensions affected by schizophrenia, clinical trials often include multiple scales measuring various symptom profiles, cognition, quality of life, subjective well-being, and functional impairment. In this exploratory study, we characterized the relationships among six clinical, functional, cognitive, and quality-of-life measures, identifying a parsimonious set of measurements.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used baseline data from a randomized, multicenter study of patients diagnosed with schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, or schizophreniform disorder who were experiencing an acute symptom exacerbation (n = 628) to examine the relationship among several outcome measures. These measures included the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS), Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia Symbol Coding Test, Subjective Well-being Under Neuroleptics Scale Short Form (SWN-K), Schizophrenia Objective Functioning Instrument (SOFI), and Quality of Life Scale (QLS). Three analytic approaches were used: 1) path analysis; 2) factor analysis; and 3) categorical latent variable analysis. In the optimal path model, the SWN-K was selected as the final outcome, while the SOFI mediated the effect of the exogenous variables (PANSS, MADRS) on the QLS.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The overall model explained 47% of variance in QLS and 17% of the variance in SOFI, but only 15% in SWN-K. Factor analysis suggested four factors: "Functioning," "Daily Living," "Depression," and "Psychopathology." A strong positive correlation was observed between the SOFI and QLS (r = 0.669), and both the QLS and SOFI loaded on the "Functioning" factor, suggesting redundancy between these scales. The measurement profiles from the categorical latent variable analysis showed significant variation in functioning and quality of life despite similar levels of psychopathology.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Researchers should consider collecting PANSS, SOFI, and SWN-K in their trials. This would allow a broad spectrum of assessments that would have the ability to capture a wide range of treatment outcomes and allow for a rich characterization of the subgroups involved. Additional research is needed to identify the critical cognitive measures.</p> <p>Trials registration</p> <p>Clinical trials registration: Predicting Response to Risperidone Treatment Through Identification of Early-onset of Antipsychotic Drug Action in Schizophrenia</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00337662">NCT00337662</a>; <url>http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/</url></p

Acute weight gain, gender, and therapeutic response to antipsychotics in the treatment of patients with schizophrenia

BACKGROUND: Previous research indicated that women are more vulnerable than men to adverse psychological consequences of weight gain. Other research has suggested that weight gain experienced during antipsychotic therapy may also psychologically impact women more negatively. This study assessed the impact of acute treatment-emergent weight gain on clinical and functional outcomes of patients with schizophrenia by patient gender and antipsychotic treatment (olanzapine or haloperidol). METHODS: Data were drawn from the acute phase (first 6-weeks) of a double-blind randomized clinical trial of olanzapine versus haloperidol in the treatment of 1296 men and 700 women with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders. The associations between weight change and change in core schizophrenia symptoms, depressive symptoms, and functional status were examined post-hoc for men and women and for each medication group. Core schizophrenia symptoms (positive and negative) were measured with the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS), depressive symptoms with the BPRS Anxiety/Depression Scale and the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale, and functional status with the mental and physical component scores on the Medical Outcome Survey-Short Form 36. Statistical analysis included methods that controlled for treatment duration. RESULTS: Weight gain during 6-week treatment with olanzapine and haloperidol was significantly associated with improvements in core schizophrenia symptoms, depressive symptoms, mental functioning, and physical functioning for men and women alike. The conditional probability of clinical response (20% reduction in core schizophrenia symptom), given a clinically significant weight gain (at least 7% of baseline weight), showed that about half of the patients who lost weight responded to treatment, whereas three-quarters of the patients who had a clinically significant weight gain responded to treatment. The positive associations between therapeutic response and weight gain were similar for the olanzapine and haloperidol treatment groups. Improved outcomes were, however, more pronounced for the olanzapine-treated patients, and more olanzapine-treated patients gained weight. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of significant relationships between treatment-emergent weight gain and improvements in clinical and functional status at 6-weeks suggest that patients who have greater treatment-emergent weight gain are more likely to benefit from treatment with olanzapine or haloperidol regardless of gender

The Antiquity and Evolutionary History of Social Behavior in Bees

A long-standing controversy in bee social evolution concerns whether highly eusocial behavior has evolved once or twice within the corbiculate Apidae. Corbiculate bees include the highly eusocial honey bees and stingless bees, the primitively eusocial bumble bees, and the predominantly solitary or communal orchid bees. Here we use a model-based approach to reconstruct the evolutionary history of eusociality and date the antiquity of eusocial behavior in apid bees, using a recent molecular phylogeny of the Apidae. We conclude that eusociality evolved once in the common ancestor of the corbiculate Apidae, advanced eusociality evolved independently in the honey and stingless bees, and that eusociality was lost in the orchid bees. Fossil-calibrated divergence time estimates reveal that eusociality first evolved at least 87 Mya (78 to 95 Mya) in the corbiculates, much earlier than in other groups of bees with less complex social behavior. These results provide a robust new evolutionary framework for studies of the organization and genetic basis of social behavior in honey bees and their relatives

A systematic review of the effects of residency training on patient outcomes

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Residents are vital to the clinical workforce of today and tomorrow. Although in training to become specialists, they also provide much of the daily patient care. Residency training aims to prepare residents to provide a high quality of care. It is essential to assess the patient outcome aspects of residency training, to evaluate the effect or impact of global investments made in training programs. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review to evaluate the effects of relevant aspects of residency training on patient outcomes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The literature was searched from December 2004 to February 2011 using MEDLINE, Cochrane, Embase and the Education Resources Information Center databases with terms related to residency training and (post) graduate medical education and patient outcomes, including mortality, morbidity, complications, length of stay and patient satisfaction. Included studies evaluated the impact of residency training on patient outcomes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Ninety-seven articles were included from 182 full-text articles of the initial 2,001 hits. All studies were of average or good quality and the majority had an observational study design.Ninety-six studies provided insight into the effect of 'the level of experience of residents' on patient outcomes during residency training. Within these studies, the start of the academic year was not without risk (five out of 19 studies), but individual progression of residents (seven studies) as well as progression through residency training (nine out of 10 studies) had a positive effect on patient outcomes. Compared with faculty, residents' care resulted mostly in similar patient outcomes when dedicated supervision and additional operation time were arranged for (34 out of 43 studies). After new, modified or improved training programs, patient outcomes remained unchanged or improved (16 out of 17 studies). Only one study focused on physicians' prior training site when assessing the quality of patient care. In this study, training programs were ranked by complication rates of their graduates, thus linking patient outcomes back to where physicians were trained.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The majority of studies included in this systematic review drew attention to the fact that patient care appears safe and of equal quality when delivered by residents. A minority of results pointed to some negative patient outcomes from the involvement of residents. Adequate supervision, room for extra operation time, and evaluation of and attention to the individual competence of residents throughout residency training could positively serve patient outcomes. Limited evidence is available on the effect of residency training on later practice. Both qualitative and quantitative research designs are needed to clarify which aspects of residency training best prepare doctors to deliver high quality care.</p

Repurposing NGO data for better research outcomes: A scoping review of the use and secondary analysis of NGO data in health policy and systems research

Background Non-government organisations (NGOs) collect and generate vast amounts of potentially rich data, most of which are not used for research purposes. Secondary analysis of NGO data (their use and analysis in a study for which they were not originally collected) presents an important but largely unrealised opportunity to provide new research insights in critical areas including the evaluation of health policy and programmes. Methods A scoping review of the published literature was performed to identify the extent to which secondary analysis of NGO data has been used in health policy and systems research (HPSR). A tiered analytic approach provided a comprehensive overview and descriptive analyses of the studies which: 1) used data produced or collected by or about NGOs; 2) performed secondary analysis of the NGO data (beyond use of an NGO report as a supporting reference); 3) used NGO-collected clinical data. Results Of the 156 studies which performed secondary analysis of NGO-produced or collected data, 64% (n=100) used NGO-produced reports (e.g. to critique NGO activities and as a contextual reference) and 8% (n=13) analysed NGO-collected clinical data.. Of the studies, 55% investigated service delivery research topics, with 48% undertaken in developing countries and 17% in both developing and developed. NGO-collected clinical data enabled HPSR within marginalised groups (e.g. migrants, people in conflict-affected areas), with some limitations such as inconsistencies and missing data. Conclusion We found evidence that NGO-collected and produced data are most commonly perceived as a source of supporting evidence for HPSR and not as primary source data. However, these data can facilitate research in under-researched marginalised groups and in contexts that are hard to reach by academics, such as conflict-affected areas. NGO–academic collaboration could help address issues of NGO data quality to facilitate their more widespread use in research. Their use could enable relevant and timely research in the areas of health policy, programme evaluation and advocacy to improve health and reduce health inequalities, especially in marginalised groups and developing countries