Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions

As COVID-19 continues to spread across the world, it is increasingly important to understand the factors that influence its transmission. Seasonal variation driven by responses to changing environment has been shown to affect the transmission intensity of several coronaviruses. However, the impact of the environment on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains largely unknown, and thus seasonal variation remains a source of uncertainty in forecasts of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here we address this issue by assessing the association of temperature, humidity, ultraviolet radiation, and population density with estimates of transmission rate (R). Using data from the United States, we explore correlates of transmission across US states using comparative regression and integrative epidemiological modeling. We find that policy intervention (“lockdown”) and reductions in individuals’ mobility are the major predictors of SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates, but, in their absence, lower temperatures and higher population densities are correlated with increased SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Our results show that summer weather cannot be considered a substitute for mitigation policies, but that lower autumn and winter temperatures may lead to an increase in transmission intensity in the absence of policy interventions or behavioral changes. We outline how this information may improve the forecasting of COVID-19, reveal its future seasonal dynamics, and inform intervention policies

Recurrent, Robust and Scalable Patterns Underlie Human Approach and Avoidance

BACKGROUND. Approach and avoidance behavior provide a means for assessing the rewarding or aversive value of stimuli, and can be quantified by a keypress procedure whereby subjects work to increase (approach), decrease (avoid), or do nothing about time of exposure to a rewarding/aversive stimulus. To investigate whether approach/avoidance behavior might be governed by quantitative principles that meet engineering criteria for lawfulness and that encode known features of reward/aversion function, we evaluated whether keypress responses toward pictures with potential motivational value produced any regular patterns, such as a trade-off between approach and avoidance, or recurrent lawful patterns as observed with prospect theory. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. Three sets of experiments employed this task with beautiful face images, a standardized set of affective photographs, and pictures of food during controlled states of hunger and satiety. An iterative modeling approach to data identified multiple law-like patterns, based on variables grounded in the individual. These patterns were consistent across stimulus types, robust to noise, describable by a simple power law, and scalable between individuals and groups. Patterns included: (i) a preference trade-off counterbalancing approach and avoidance, (ii) a value function linking preference intensity to uncertainty about preference, and (iii) a saturation function linking preference intensity to its standard deviation, thereby setting limits to both. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE. These law-like patterns were compatible with critical features of prospect theory, the matching law, and alliesthesia. Furthermore, they appeared consistent with both mean-variance and expected utility approaches to the assessment of risk. Ordering of responses across categories of stimuli demonstrated three properties thought to be relevant for preference-based choice, suggesting these patterns might be grouped together as a relative preference theory. Since variables in these patterns have been associated with reward circuitry structure and function, they may provide a method for quantitative phenotyping of normative and pathological function (e.g., psychiatric illness).National Institute on Drug Abuse (14118, 026002, 026104, DABK39-03-0098, DABK39-03-C-0098); The MGH Phenotype Genotype Project in Addiction and Mood Disorder from the Office of National Drug Control Policy - Counterdrug Technology Assessment Center; MGH Department of Radiology; the National Center for Research Resources (P41RR14075); National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (34189, 05236

Elevation of the antifibrotic peptide N-acetyl-seryl-aspartyl-lysyl-proline: a blood pressure-independent beneficial effect of angiotensin I-converting enzyme inhibitors

Blockade of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) is well recognized as an essential therapy in hypertensive, heart, and kidney diseases. There are several classes of drugs that block the RAS; these drugs are known to exhibit antifibrotic action. An analysis of the molecular mechanisms of action for these drugs can reveal potential differences in their antifibrotic roles. In this review, we discuss the antifibrotic action of RAS blockade with an emphasis on the potential importance of angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibition associated with the antifibrotic peptide N-acetyl-seryl-aspartyl-lysyl-proline (AcSDKP)