The Survival Benefits of Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa

Background. We sought to quantify the survival benefits attributable to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa since 2004. Methods. We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications–International model (CEPAC) to simulate 8 cohorts of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected patients initiating ART each year during 2004–2011. Model inputs included cohort-specific mean CD4+ T-cell count at ART initiation (112–178 cells/µL), 24-week ART suppressive efficacy (78%), second-line ART availability (2.4% of ART recipients), and cohort-specific 36-month retention rate (55%–71%). CEPAC simulated survival twice for each cohort, once with and once without ART. The sum of the products of per capita survival differences and the total numbers of persons initiating ART for each cohort yielded the total survival benefits. Results. Lifetime per capita survival benefits ranged from 9.3 to 10.2 life-years across the 8 cohorts. Total estimated population lifetime survival benefit for all persons starting ART during 2004–2011 was 21.7 million life-years, of which 2.8 million life-years (12.7%) had been realized by December 2012. By 2030, benefits reached 17.9 million life-years under current policies, 21.7 million life-years with universal second-line ART, 23.3 million life-years with increased linkage to care of eligible untreated patients, and 28.0 million life-years with both linkage to care and universal second-line ART. Conclusions. We found dramatic past and potential future survival benefits attributable to ART, justifying international support of ART rollout in South Africa

Patient- and population-level health consequences of discontinuing antiretroviral therapy in settings with inadequate HIV treatment availability

Background In resource-limited settings, HIV budgets are flattening or decreasing. A policy of discontinuing antiretroviral therapy (ART) after HIV treatment failure was modeled to highlight trade-offs among competing policy goals of optimizing individual and population health outcomes. Methods In settings with two available ART regimens, we assessed two strategies: (1) continue ART after second-line failure (Status Quo) and (2) discontinue ART after second-line failure (Alternative). A computer model simulated outcomes for a single cohort of newly detected, HIV-infected individuals. Projections were fed into a population-level model allowing multiple cohorts to compete for ART with constraints on treatment capacity. In the Alternative strategy, discontinuation of second-line ART occurred upon detection of antiretroviral failure, specified by WHO guidelines. Those discontinuing failed ART experienced an increased risk of AIDS-related mortality compared to those continuing ART. Results At the population level, the Alternative strategy increased the mean number initiating ART annually by 1,100 individuals (+18.7%) to 6,980 compared to the Status Quo. More individuals initiating ART under the Alternative strategy increased total life-years by 15,000 (+2.8%) to 555,000, compared to the Status Quo. Although more individuals received treatment under the Alternative strategy, life expectancy for those treated decreased by 0.7 years (−8.0%) to 8.1 years compared to the Status Quo. In a cohort of treated patients only, 600 more individuals (+27.1%) died by 5 years under the Alternative strategy compared to the Status Quo. Results were sensitive to the timing of detection of ART failure, number of ART regimens, and treatment capacity. Although we believe the results robust in the short-term, this analysis reflects settings where HIV case detection occurs late in the disease course and treatment capacity and the incidence of newly detected patients are stable. Conclusions In settings with inadequate HIV treatment availability, trade-offs emerge between maximizing outcomes for individual patients already on treatment and ensuring access to treatment for all people who may benefit. While individuals may derive some benefit from ART even after virologic failure, the aggregate public health benefit is maximized by providing effective therapy to the greatest number of people. These trade-offs should be explicit and transparent in antiretroviral policy decisions

Impact of Drug Stock-Outs on Death and Retention to Care among HIV-Infected Patients on Combination Antiretroviral Therapy in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire

To evaluate the type and frequency of antiretroviral drug stock-outs, and their impact on death and interruption in care among HIV-infected patients in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.We conducted a cohort study of patients who initiated combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in three adult HIV clinics between February 1, 2006 and June 1, 2007. Follow-up ended on February 1, 2008. The primary outcome was cART regimen modification, defined as at least one drug substitution, or discontinuation for at least one month due to drug stock-outs at the clinic pharmacy. The secondary outcome for patients who were on cART for at least six months was interruption in care, or death. A Cox regression model with time-dependent variables was used to assess the impact of antiretroviral drug stock-outs on interruption in care or death. Overall, 1,554 adults initiated cART and were followed for a mean of 13.2 months. During this time, 72 patients discontinued treatment and 98 modified their regimen because of drug stock-outs. Stock-outs involved nevirapine and fixed-dose combination zidovudine/lamivudine in 27% and 51% of cases. Of 1,554 patients, 839 (54%) initiated cART with fixed-dose stavudine/lamivudine/nevirapine and did not face stock-outs during the study period. Among the 975 patients who were on cART for at least six months, stock-out-related cART discontinuations increased the risk of interruption in care or death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.83; 95%CI, 1.25-6.44) but cART modifications did not (adjusted HR, 1.21; 95%CI, 0.46-3.16).cART stock-outs affected at least 11% of population on treatment. Treatment discontinuations due to stock-outs were frequent and doubled the risk of interruption in care or death. These stock-outs did not involve the most common first-line regimen. As access to cART continues to increase in sub-Saharan Africa, first-line regimens should be standardized to decrease the probability of drug stock-outs

Scaling Up the 2010 World Health Organization HIV Treatment Guidelines in Resource-Limited Settings: A Model-Based Analysis

Rochelle Walensky and colleagues use a model-based analysis to examine which of the 2010 WHO antiretroviral therapy guidelines should be implemented first in resource-limited settings by ranking them according to survival, cost-effectiveness, and equity

BMJ Open

INTRODUCTION: Acute malnutrition (AM) is a continuum condition, arbitrarily divided into moderate and severe AM (SAM) categories, funded and managed in separate programmes under different protocols. Optimising acute MAlnutrition (OptiMA) treatment aims to simplify and optimise AM management by treating children with mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) <125 mm or oedema with one product-ready-to-use therapeutic food-at a gradually tapered dose. Our main objective was to compare the OptiMA strategy with the standard nutritional protocol in children 6-59 months presenting with MUAC <125 mm or oedema without additional complications, as well as in children classified as uncomplicated SAM (ie, MUAC <115 mm or weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ) <-3 or with oedema). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study was a non-inferiority, individually randomised controlled clinical trial conducted at community level in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Children 6-59 months presenting with MUAC <125 mm or WHZ <-3 or with bipedal oedema and without medical complication were included after signed informed consent in outpatient health facilities. All participants were followed for 6 months. Success in both arms was defined at 6 months post inclusion as being alive, not acutely malnourished per the definition applied at inclusion and without an additional episode of AM throughout the 6-month observation period. Recovery among children with uncomplicated SAM was the main secondary outcome. For the primary objective, 890 participants were needed, and 480 children with SAM were needed for the main secondary objective. We will perform non-inferiority analyses in per-protocol and intention-to-treat basis for both outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approvals were obtained from the National Health Ethics Committee of the Democratic Republic of Congo and from the Ethics Evaluation Committee of Inserm, the French National Institute for Health and Medical Research (Paris, France). We will submit results for publication to a peer-reviewed journal and disseminate findings in international and national conferences and meetings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03751475. Registered 19 September 2018, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03751475

EBioMedicine

Background High HIV-1 DNA levels in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) were associated with a higher risk of severe morbidity and a faster decline in CD4 count in ART-naive patients. We report the association between HIV-1 DNA and mortality in HIV-infected adults in a trial of early ART in West Africa. Methods In the Temprano trial, HIV-infected adults were randomly assigned to start ART immediately or defer ART. After trial termination, HIV-1 DNA was measured in whole blood samples frozen at baseline. We analyzed the association between baseline PBMC HIV-1 DNA and long-term mortality

Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing Loss to Follow-up in HIV Treatment Programs: A Côte d'Ivoire Appraisal

Based on data from West Africa, Elena Losina and colleagues predict that interventions to reduce dropout rates from HIV treatment programs (such as eliminating copayments) will be cost-effective

Simplifying and optimising the management of uncomplicated acute malnutrition in children aged 6–59 months in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (OptiMA-DRC): a non-inferiority, randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Global access to acute malnutrition treatment is low. Different programmes using different nutritional products manage cases of severe acute malnutrition and moderate acute malnutrition separately. We aimed to assess whether integrating severe acute malnutrition and moderate acute malnutrition treatment into one programme, using a single nutritional product and reducing the dose as the child improves, could achieve similar or higher individual efficacy, increase coverage, and minimise costs compared with the current programmes. METHODS: We conducted an open-label, non-inferiority, randomised controlled trial in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Acutely malnourished children aged 6-59 months with a mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC) of less than 125 mm or oedema were randomly assigned (1:1), using specially developed software and random blocks (size was kept confidential), to either the current standard strategy (one programme for severe acute malnutrition using ready-to-use therapeutic food [RUTF] at an increasing dose as weight increased, another for moderate acute malnutrition using a fixed dose of ready-to-use supplementary food [RUSF]) or the OptiMA strategy (a single programme for both severe acute malnutrition and moderate acute malnutrition using RUTF at a decreasing dose as MUAC and weight increased). The primary endpoint was a favourable outcome at 6 months, defined as being alive, not acutely malnourished as per the definition applied at inclusion, and with no further episodes of acute malnutrition throughout the 6-month observation period; the endpoint was analysed in the intention-to-treat (all children) and per-protocol populations (participants who had a minimum prescription of 4 weeks' RUTF, received at least 90% of the total amount of RUTF they were supposed to receive as per the protocol, or were prescribed RUSF rations for a minimum of 4 weeks [ie, minimum of 28 RUSF sachets], and had a maximum interval of 6 weeks between any two visits in the 6-month follow-up). The non-inferiority analysis (margin 10%) was to be followed by a superiority analysis (margin 0%) if non-inferiority was concluded. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03751475, and is now closed. FINDINGS: Between July 22 and Dec 6, 2019, 912 children were randomly assigned; after 16 were excluded, 896 were analysed (446 in the standard group and 450 in the OptiMA group). In the intention-to-treat analysis, 282 (63%) of 446 children in the standard group and 325 (72%) of 450 children in the OptiMA group had a favourable outcome (difference -9.0%, 95% CI -15.9 to -2.0). In the per protocol analysis, 161 (61%) of 264 children in the standard group and 291 (74%) of 392 children in the OptiMA group had a favourable outcome (-13.2%, -21.6 to -4.9). INTERPRETATION: In this non-inferiority trial treating children with MUAC of less than 125 mm or oedema, decreasing RUTF dose according to MUAC and weight increase proved to be a superior strategy to the standard protocol in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. These results demonstrate the safety and benefits of an approach that could substantially increase access to treatment for millions of children with acute malnutrition in sub-Saharan Africa. FUNDING: Innocent Foundation and European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section