GFC-Robust Risk Management Strategies under the Basel Accord

A risk management strategy is proposed as being robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) by selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models. The robust forecast is based on the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of conditional volatility models. This risk management strategy is GFC-robust in the sense that maintaining the same risk management strategies before, during and after a financial crisis would lead to comparatively low daily capital charges and violation penalties. The new method is illustrated by using the S&P500 index before, during and after the 2008-09 global financial crisis. We investigate the performance of a variety of single and combined VaR forecasts in terms of daily capital requirements and violation penalties under the Basel II Accord, as well as other criteria. The median VaR risk management strategy is GFC-robust as it provides stable results across different periods relative to other VaR forecasting models. The new strategy based on combined forecasts of single models is straightforward to incorporate into existing computer software packages that are used by banks and other financial institutions.Value-at-Risk (VaR);daily capital charges;optimizing strategy;robust forecasts;violation penalties;global financial crisis;Basel II Accord;aggressive risk management strategy;conservative risk management strategy

What Happened to Risk Management During the 2008-09 Financial Crisis?

When dealing with market risk under the Basel II Accord, variation pays in the form of lower capital requirements and higher profits. Typically, GARCH type models are chosen to forecast Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a single risk model. In this paper we illustrate two useful variations to the standard mechanism for choosing forecasts, namely: (i) combining different forecast models for each period, such as a daily model that forecasts the supremum or infinum value for the VaR; (ii) alternatively, select a single model to forecast VaR, and then modify the daily forecast, depending on the recent history of violations under the Basel II Accord. We illustrate these points using the Standard and Poor’s 500 Composite Index. In many cases we find significant decreases in the capital requirements, while incurring a number of violations that stays within the Basel II Accord limits.risk management;violations;conservative risk strategy;aggressive risk strategy;value-at-risk forecast

A decision rule to minimize daily capital charges in forecasting value-at-risk

Under the Basel II Accord, banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) have to communicate their daily risk estimates to the monetary authorities at the beginning of the trading day, using a variety of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models to measure risk. Sometimes the risk estimates communicated using these models are too high, thereby leading to large capital requirements and high capital costs. At other times, the risk estimates are too low, leading to excessive violations, so that realised losses are above the estimated risk. In this paper we propose a learning strategy that complements existing methods for calculating VaR and lowers daily capital requirements, while restricting the number of endogenous violations within the Basel II Accord penalty limits. We suggest a decision rule that responds to violations in a discrete and instantaneous manner, while adapting more slowly in periods of no violations. We apply the proposed strategy to Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and show there can be substantial savings in daily capital charges, while restricting the number of violations to within the Basel II penalty limits.value-at-risk;daily capital charges;optimizing strategy;risk forecasts;endogenous violations;frequency of violations

Zoneamento agrícola do algodão herbáceo no Nordeste brasileiro safra 2006/2007 ? Estado de Sergipe.

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Zoneamento de riscos climáticos da cultura da mamoneira no Estado de Sergipe, referente ao ano safra de 2006/2007.

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Zoneamento agrícola do algodão herbáceo no Nordeste brasileiro safra 2006/2007 ? Estado de Alagoas.

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