PERAMALAN PENJUALAN DALAM RANGKA PERENCANAAN PRODUKSI (STUDI KASUS PADA HOME INDUSTRY “SUSU KEDELAI RISA” MALANG)

The Company Establishment both active in industrial and trade areas essentially have a goal to obtain the optimum profit in each of periods thus the survival of company can be warranted. The appropriate and efficient planning in managing optimally all resources had is needed to achieve the success of company goal. Based on the explanation thus it was formulated several problems, namely: (1) how much the cost and profit of company? how much the sale forecasting of the previous year to make production planning in 2011? (3) how much production plan of 2011 based on the sale forecast and the company internal factors condition? From the problems, there were made research hypotheses, namely: (1) It supposed that RISA soybean milk business in each year experienced profit increase. (2) It supposed that the sale trend of RISA Soybean Milk in 2011 shall increase. Location of research was at the home industri of RISA Soybean Milk of Malang located in the Perum Lembah Dieng Block G1 No. 10, Malang Regency. Location determination was done purposively. Data analysis method conducted was the quantitative analysis involved (1) cost and profit analysis, representing the numbers of cost the company spent, revenue, and profit obtained. (2) sale forecasting analysis by Least Square Method (MKT) to know the sale forecasting in 2011 in the framework to make the appropriate production planning based on the sale forecast and the company internal factor condition. The home industry of RISA Soybean Milk was a small enterprise of the household scale owned by Mrs. Susan Chairizal Susilo, it was officially established since 2003. This enterprise was located at her-own house in Perum Lembah Dieng block G1 No. 10, Malang Regency. The employees who employed in this small enterprise were amounted to 5 persons, consisted of 2 workers as the cooks and 3 persons as the product salesmen. Production of RISA soybean milk in a day reached 250 packs, with content of 275 ml per pack of soybean milk, and sold at price of Rp. 1600.- at the producer level. RISA soybean milk had some superiorities, namely, the exact milk viscosity level, had no rancid smell, and its taste was not too sweet thus many consumers like it. For the marketing area, the RISA soybean milk just marketed at shops and department stores around Malang City. In order to more to introduce her product Mrs. Susan established a special stand for soybean milk and fresh fruit juice located on Bromo Street, Malang City. From the results of cost and profit analysis, there were obtained data regarding the variable costs involving the major raw material cost, the supplement raw material cost and the marketing cost. (B) Fixed cost involving direct labor, indirect labor, depreciation and utilities (electricity and water) cost. (C) Total cost, namely, the total numbers of variable cost plus fixed cost, total cost in the RISA Soybean Milk enterprise was Rp (D) Revenue and (E) profit. Each year this business continually experienced profit, although occasionally the profit percentage level decreased. In 2009 the profit obtained was as much as Rp. 85,278,980.- or increased around 54% from the prior year. This case showed that the first research hypothesis proven, that the home industry business of RISA Soybean Milk of Malang experienced profit in each year. The time series forecasting analysis was used to know the RISA soybean milk selling in 2011. From the calculation results, obtained the sale forecasting result for 2011 as much as 25,172 liters/year. The amount increased from the sale results in 2009 which as much as 17,727 liters/day. The forecasting result could prove that the second research hypothesis was true, namely the trend of RISA soybean milk sale in 2011 increased. Based on the determined sale forecasting results, then the business owner decided to increase her production numbers consistent with the forecasting result, namely as much as 25,172 liters/year, or around 80 liters of soybean milk a day. In addition, from her business internal factor aspect, the owner also planned add the number of her production equipment namely in the form of basins, stainless pans, and stoves, so that it could meet the production numbers she wanted to reach. For the labor, the owner did not plan to add them more, due to the existing labor number were still capable to assist the production process and selling of RISA soybean milk