Estimating health-adjusted life expectancy conditional on risk factors: results for smoking and obesity

BACKGROUND: Smoking and obesity are risk factors causing a large burden of disease. To help formulate and prioritize among smoking and obesity prevention activities, estimations of health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) for cohorts that differ solely in their lifestyle (e.g. smoking vs. non smoking) can provide valuable information. Furthermore, in combination with estimates of life expectancy (LE), it can be tested whether prevention of obesity and smoking results in compression of morbidity. METHODS: Using a dynamic population model that calculates the incidence of chronic disease conditional on epidemiological risk factors, we estimated LE and HALE at age 20 for a cohort of smokers with a normal weight (BMI < 25), a cohort of non-smoking obese people (BMI>30) and a cohort of 'healthy living' people (i.e. non smoking with a BMI < 25). Health state valuations for the different cohorts were calculated using the estimated disease prevalence rates in combination with data from the Dutch Burden of Disease study. Health state valuations are multiplied with life years to estimate HALE. Absolute compression of morbidity is defined as a reduction in unhealthy life expectancy (LE-HALE) and relative compression as a reduction in the proportion of life lived in good health (LE-HALE)/LE. RESULTS: Estimates of HALE are highest for a 'healthy living' cohort (54.8 years for men and 55.4 years for women at age 20). Differences in HALE compared to 'healthy living' men at age 20 are 7.8 and 4.6 for respectively smoking and obese men. Differences in HALE compared to 'healthy living' women at age 20 are 6.0 and 4.5 for respectively smoking and obese women. Unhealthy life expectancy is about equal for all cohorts, meaning that successful prevention would not result in absolute compression of morbidity. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that although estimates of LE and HALE are sensitive to changes in disease epidemiology, differences in LE and HALE between the different cohorts are fairly robust. In most cases, elimination of smoking or obesity does not result in absolute compression of morbidity but slightly increases the part of life lived in good health. CONCLUSION: Differences in HALE between smoking, obese and 'healthy living' cohorts are substantial and similar to differences in LE. However, our results do not indicate that substantial compression of morbidity is to be expected as a result of successful smoking or obesity prevention

Alcohol consumption and the risk of morbidity and mortality for different stroke types - a systematic review and meta-analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Observational studies have suggested a complex relationship between alcohol consumption and stroke, dependent on sex, type of stroke and outcome (morbidity vs. mortality). We undertook a systematic review and a meta-analysis of studies assessing the association between levels of average alcohol consumption and relative risks of ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes separately by sex and outcome. This meta-analysis is the first to explicitly separate morbidity and mortality of alcohol-attributable stroke and thus has implications for public health and prevention.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using Medical Subject Headings (alcohol drinking, ethanol, cerebrovascular accident, cerebrovascular disorders, and intracranial embolism and thrombosis and the key word stroke), a literature search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, CABS, WHOlist, SIGLE, ETOH, and Web of Science databases between 1980 to June 2009 was performed followed by manual searches of bibliographies of key retrieved articles. From twenty-six observational studies (cohort or case-control) with ischemic or hemorrhagic strokes the relative risk or odds ratios or hazard ratios of stroke associated with alcohol consumption were reported; alcohol consumption was quantified; and life time abstention (manually estimated where data for current abstainers were given) was used as the reference group. Two reviewers independently extracted the information on study design, participant characteristics, level of alcohol consumption, stroke outcome, control for potential confounding factors, risk estimates and key criteria of study quality using a standardized protocol.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The dose-response relationship for hemorrhagic stroke had monotonically increasing risk for increasing consumption, whereas ischemic stroke showed a curvilinear relationship, with a protective effect of alcohol for low to moderate consumption, and increased risk for higher exposure. For more than 3 drinks on average/day, in general women had higher risks than men, and the risks for mortality were higher compared to the risks for morbidity.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results indicate that heavy alcohol consumption increases the relative risk of any stroke while light or moderate alcohol consumption may be protective against ischemic stroke. Preventive measures that should be initiated are discussed.</p

Smoking duration, respiratory symptoms, and COPD in adults aged &ge;45 years with a smoking history

Yong Liu,1 Roy A Pleasants,2 Janet B Croft,1 Anne G Wheaton,1 Khosrow Heidari,3 Ann M Malarcher,4 Jill A Ohar,5 Monica Kraft,6 David M Mannino,7 Charlie Strange8 1Division of Population Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, 2Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, and Critical Care Medicine, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, 3Chronic Disease Epidemiology Office, Department of Health and Environmental Control, South Carolina, SC, 4Office of Smoking and Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, 5Section on Pulmonary, Critical Care, Allergy and Immunologic Disease, Wake Forest University, Winston Salem, NC, 6Department of Medicine, University of Arizona, Phoenix, AZ, 7Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care, and Sleep Medicine, Pulmonary Epidemiology Research Laboratory, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, 8Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care, Allergy and Sleep Medicine, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC, USA Background: The purpose of this study was to assess the relationship of smoking duration with respiratory symptoms and history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the South Carolina Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey in 2012.Methods: Data from 4,135 adults aged &ge;45 years with a smoking history were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression that accounted for sex, age, race/ethnicity, education, and current smoking status, as well as the complex sampling design.Results: The distribution of smoking duration ranged from 19.2% (1&ndash;9 years) to 36.2% (&ge;30 years). Among 1,454 respondents who had smoked for &ge;30 years, 58.3% were current smokers, 25.0% had frequent productive cough, 11.2% had frequent shortness of breath, 16.7% strongly agreed that shortness of breath affected physical activity, and 25.6% had been diagnosed with COPD. Prevalence of COPD and each respiratory symptom was lower among former smokers who quit &ge;10 years earlier compared with current smokers. Smoking duration had a linear relationship with COPD (P&lt;0.001) and all three respiratory symptoms (P&lt;0.001) after adjusting for smoking status and other covariates. While COPD prevalence increased with prolonged smoking duration in both men and women, women had a higher age-adjusted prevalence of COPD in the 1&ndash;9 years, 20&ndash;29 years, and &ge;30 years duration periods.Conclusion: These state population data confirm that prolonged tobacco use is associated with respiratory symptoms and COPD after controlling for current smoking behavior. Keywords: tobacco use, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, respiratory symptoms, population-based stud