The relationship between patient physiology, the systemic inflammatory response and survival in patients undergoing curative resection of colorectal cancer

<p>Background: It is increasingly recognised that host-related factors may be important in determining cancer outcome. The aim was to examine the relationship between patient physiology, the systemic inflammatory response and survival after colorectal cancer resection.</p> <p>Methods: Patients undergoing potentially curative resection of colorectal cancer were identified from a prospectively maintained database. Patient physiology was assessed using the physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) criteria. The systemic inflammatory response was assessed using the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS). Multivariate 5-year survival analysis was carried out with calculation of hazard ratios (HR).</p> <p>Results: A total of 320 patients were included. During follow-up (median 74 months), there were 136 deaths: 83 colorectal cancer related and 53 non-cancer related. Independent predictors of cancer-specific survival were age (HR: 1.46, P<0.01), Dukes stage (HR: 2.39, P<0.001), mGPS (HR: 1.78, P<0.001) and POSSUM physiology score (HR: 1.38, P=0.02). Predictors of overall survival were age (HR: 1.64, P<0.001), smoking (HR: 1.52, P=0.02), Dukes stage (HR: 1.64, P<0.001), mGPS (HR: 1.60, P<0.001) and POSSUM physiology score (HR: 1.27, P=0.03). A relationship between mGPS and POSSUM physiology score was also established (P<0.006).</p> <p>Conclusion: The POSSUM physiology score and the systemic inflammatory response are strongly associated and both are independent predictors of cancer specific and overall survival in patients undergoing potentially curative resection of colorectal cancer.</p&gt

Predictive Value of POSSUM and ACPGBI Scoring in Mortality and Morbidity of Colorectal Resection: A Case–Control Study

Contains fulltext : 97239.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Preoperative risk prediction to assess mortality and morbidity may be helpful to surgical decision making. The aim of this study was to compare mortality and morbidity of colorectal resections performed in a tertiary referral center with mortality and morbidity as predicted with physiological and operative score for enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM), and colorectal POSSUM (CR-POSSUM). The second aim of this study was to analyze the accuracy of different POSSUM scores in surgery performed for malignancy, inflammatory bowel diseases, and diverticulitis. POSSUM scoring was also evaluated in colorectal resection in acute vs. elective setting. In procedures performed for malignancy, the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) score was assessed in the same way for comparison. METHODS: POSSUM, P-POSSUM, and CR-POSSUM predictor equations for mortality were applied in a retrospective case-control study to 734 patients who had undergone colorectal resection. The total group was assessed first. Second, the predictive value of outcome after surgery was assessed for malignancy (n = 386), inflammatory bowel diseases (n = 113), diverticulitis (n = 91), and other indications, e.g., trauma, endometriosis, volvulus, or ischemia (n = 144). Third, all subgroups were assessed in relation to the setting in which surgery was performed: acute or elective. In patients with malignancy, the ACPGBI score was calculated as well. In all groups, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed. RESULTS: POSSUM, P-POSSUM, and CR-POSSUM have a significant predictive value for outcome after colorectal surgery. Within the total population as well as in all four subgroups, there is no difference in the area under the curve between the POSSUM, P-POSSUM, and CR-POSSUM scores. In the subgroup analysis, smallest areas under the ROC curve are seen in operations performed for malignancy, which is significantly worse than for diverticulitis and in operations performed for other indications. For elective procedures, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM predict outcome significantly worse in patients operated for carcinoma than in patients with diverticulitis. In acute surgical interventions, CR-POSSUM predicts mortality better in diverticulitis than in patients operated for other indications. The ACPGBI score has a larger area under the curve than any of the POSSUM scores. Morbidity as predicted by POSSUM is most accurate in procedures for diverticulitis and worst when the indication is malignancy. CONCLUSION: The POSSUM scores predict outcome significantly better than can be expected by chance alone. Regarding the indication for surgery, each POSSUM score predicts outcome in patients operated for diverticulitis or other indications more accurately than for malignancy. The ACPGBI score is found to be superior to the various POSSUM scores in patients who have (elective) resection of colorectal malignancy

The revised ACPGBI model is a simple and accurate predictor of operative mortality after potentially curative resection of colorectal cancer

The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) risk-adjustment model for colorectal cancer surgery has been recently revised. The aim of the present study was to compare the performance of the revised ACPGBI model, the original ACPGBI model, P-POSSUM, and CR-POSSUM, in the prediction of operative mortality after resection of colorectal cancer. A total of 423 patients who underwent potentially curative resection of colorectal cancer at a single institution (1997-2007) were included. Data used in the construction of the ACPGBI model was collected prospectively. The models were compared by examining observed to expected (O:E) ratios, the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness-of-fit test, and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) analysis. The 30-day mortality rate was 4%. The performance of the models was as follows: revised ACPGBI model (O:E ratio = 1.05, AUC = 0.73, H-L = 11.02), original ACPGBI model (O:E ratio = 0.58, AUC = 0.76, H-L = 14.23), P-POSSUM (O:E ratio = 0.87, AUC = 0.79, H-L = 10.63), and CR-POSSUM (O:E ratio = 0.63, AUC = 0.84, H-L = 15.84). In subgroup analysis, the revised ACPGBI model performed well in both elective cases (O:E ratio = 1.06) and emergency cases (O:E ratio = 0.91). The revised ACPGBI model is simple to construct and accurately predicts operative mortality after potentially curative resection of colorectal cance