Evaluation of the AR4 CMIP3 and the AR5 CMIP5 model and projections for precipitation in northeast Brazil

This article compares the sensitivity of IPCC CMIP3-AR4 and CMIP5-AR5 models used on the latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in representing the annual average variations (austral summer and autumn) on three regions in Northeastern Brazil (NNEB) for the periods 1979–2000 using the CMAP (Climatology Merged Analysis of Precipitation) data as reference. The three areas of NNEB chosen for this analysis were the semiarid, eastern, and southern regions. The EOF analysis was performed to investigate how the coupled models resolve the temporal variability of the spatial modes in the Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST), which drives the interannual variations of the rainfall in the Northeastern Brazil. CMIP3-AR4 and CMIP5-AR5 models presented a good representation of the annual cycle of precipitation. Results from correlation and mean absolute error analysis indicate that both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models produce large errors and barely capture the interannual rainfall variance during austral summer and autumn in Northeast Brazil, this features is closely related to the poor representation of the modes of SST variability in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean. For the summer and autumn rainfall projections (2040–2070) in the semiarid region, there was no convergence between the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. During the summer and autumn in the eastern sector, both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models projected rainfall above the mean for the 2040–2070 period

Pervasive gaps in Amazonian ecological research

Biodiversity loss is one of the main challenges of our time, and attempts to address it require a clear understanding of how ecological communities respond to environmental change across time and space. While the increasing availability of global databases on ecological communities has advanced our knowledge of biodiversity sensitivity to environmental changes, vast areas of the tropics remain understudied. In the American tropics, Amazonia stands out as the world's most diverse rainforest and the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity, but it remains among the least known forests in America and is often underrepresented in biodiversity databases. To worsen this situation, human-induced modifications may eliminate pieces of the Amazon's biodiversity puzzle before we can use them to understand how ecological communities are responding. To increase generalization and applicability of biodiversity knowledge, it is thus crucial to reduce biases in ecological research, particularly in regions projected to face the most pronounced environmental changes. We integrate ecological community metadata of 7,694 sampling sites for multiple organism groups in a machine learning model framework to map the research probability across the Brazilian Amazonia, while identifying the region's vulnerability to environmental change. 15%–18% of the most neglected areas in ecological research are expected to experience severe climate or land use changes by 2050. This means that unless we take immediate action, we will not be able to establish their current status, much less monitor how it is changing and what is being lost

Higher levels of salivary MUC5B and MUC7 in individuals with gastric diseases who harbor Helicobacter pylori

Objective: The aim of the present study was to assess the salivary levels of MUC5B and MUC7 in individuals with dyspeptic disease and Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) in the stomach, compared to individuals without dyspeptic disease. Methods: 30 individuals with dyspeptic disease, who underwent endoscopy for upper gastrointestinal complaints at Hospital Pedro Ernesto-RJ, Brasil and tested positive for H. pylori, and 23 controls with no dyspeptic disease, with mean age 53.5 ± 4.4 years, were included in the study. Saliva samples and 3 antral biopsy were taken for PCR analysis and histologic examination. In addition, saliva samples were tested by ELISA with F2 monoclonal antibody and EU7A antibody against MUC7, to determine MUC5B and MUC7 levels, prior to endoscopic examination. The expression pattern of the proteins was quantified by comparison to a pooled saliva sample of 19 healthy volunteers. Results: MUC5B and MUC7 salivary levels were higher in the individuals with dyspeptic disease than in controls (p < 0.0001). 33.3% (9/30) of the dyspeptic individuals and 0% of the controls had H. pylori in the oral cavity. Conclusions: Individuals with gastric diseases, with H. pylori in the stomach, showed higher levels of salivary H. pylori receptors-MUC5B and MUC7-than individuals without gastric diseases. These results suggest that higher levels of specific salivary mucins could be useful as risk indicators for infection by H. pylori