From globalization to deglobalization: Zooming into trade. Bruegel Special Report

After decades of increasing globalization both in trade, capital flows but even people to people movements, it seems the trend has turned towards deglobalization. This article shows some evidence of the decrease in merchandise, capital and, to a lesser extent people to people flows. In addition, zooming into trade, the article offers an account of the importance of the strategic competition between the US and China to foster the deglobalization trend further. This is true for trade but even beyond in the tech and finance space. Finally, the demise of the WTO could be one of the most relevant turning points towards deglobalization, especially as far as trade is concerned. This should bring downward pressure to growth globally

WHERE IS THE CHINESE BANKING SYSTEM GOING WITH THE ONGOING REFORM?

The Chinese banking system, characterized by a large proportion of state-ownership and low capitalization, has started a reform process based on three main pillars: (i) bank restructuring, with the cleaning- up of non-performing loans and public capital injections, particularly in the four largest state-owned banks; (ii) financial liberalization, with the gradual flexibilizaton of price and quantity controls and the opening-up to foreign competition; and (iii) strengthened financial regulation and supervision, as well as better risk management, corporate governance, disclosure, and the introduction of international standards. Although it is still early to judge on the success of the reform, the available evidence does not offer a very optimistic outlook. The solvency of Chinese banks is still very weak, with a stubbornly high level of non-performing loans, and profitability is poor. Given the commitment of the Chinese authorities to fully open up its banking system to foreign competition by 2006, it seems crucial that financial reform accelerates so that the Chinese banking system can compete at the international level. This is particularly the case for the reduction of NPLs and bank recapitalization as well as for a furthered improvement of bank regulation and supervision.Chinese financial system, financial reform, bank restructuring, financial liberalization, bank regulation and supervision

THE ROLE OF GLOBAL RISK AVERSION IN EXPLAINING LATIN AMERICAN SOVEREIGN SPREADS

This paper explores the role of global risk aversion (GRA) and its main determinants, US economic growth and the US government bond yield, in explaining developments in Latin American sovereign spreads. We find that GRA is significant and positively related to Latin American sovereign spreads and that its impact varies across countries and over time. Those countries with the lowest risk, such as Chile, are more affected by GRA. Its relevance has also risen over time, particularly since the sharp change in the perception of risk stemming from the Enron scandal. Finally, an increase in both US economic growth and the US government bond yield are found to reduce sovereign spreads in most Latin American countries, while the opposite is true for US short-term interest rates.GLOBAL RISK AVERSION, SOVEREIGN SPREADS,LATIN AMERICA

Does China have an impact on foreign direct investment to Latin America?

We analyze empirically whether the emergence of China as a large recipient of FDI has affected the amount of FDI received by Latin American countries. For the longest time span possible given data availability (from 1984 to 2001), we do not find a substitution from Latin American inward FDI to China, when other relevant factors are taken into account. However, concentrating on the last few years (from 1995 to 2001), when FDI boomed worldwide and negotiations for China’s WTO membership accelerated, the “Chinese” effect becomes highly significant. Assessing the impact country by country, China’s inward FDI appears to have hampered that of Mexico and Colombia.China, Latin America, FDI

Can the Chinese trade surplus be reduced through exchange rate policy?

This paper shows empirically that China’s trade balance is sensitive to fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi, although the size of the surplus is such that exchange rate policy alone will be unable to address the imbalance. One of the main reasons why the reduction in the trade surplus is limited is that Chinese imports are reduced with a real appreciation of the renminbi. By estimating bilateral import equations, we find that it is imports from other Southeast Asian countries which fall. This result reflects the vertical integration of Southeast Asia with China through the 'Asian production network'. We find, in turn, that imports from Germany – which serve China’s domestic demand – behave as one would expect, ie they increase with renminbi real appreciation. All in all, our results raise concerns on the impact of renminbi appreciation on Southeast Asia even if regional currencies do not follow the renminbi’s upward trajectory.China; trade; exports; real exchange rate

THE ROLE OF GLOBAL RISK AVERSION IN EXPLAINING LATIN AMERICAN SOVEREIGN SPREADS

This paper assesses empirically whether global risk aversion (GRA) and some if its determinants (US economic growth and the US long term interest rates) explain developments in Latin American sovereign spreads. We find that GRA is significant and positively related to Latin American sovereign spreads and that its impact varies across countries and over time. Chile, with a lower sovereign risk, is relatively more affected. The opposite is true for Argentina, Ecuador and Venezuela. In addition, the influence of GRA on spreads has risen since the Enron scandal. Finally, both an increase in US economic growth and US long term interest rates are found to reduce spreads while the opposite is true for US short-term interest rates.global risk aversion, sovereign spreads, Latin America

Does China have an impact on foreign direct investment to Latin America?

We analyze empirically whether the emergence of China as a large recipient of FDI has affected the amount of FDI received by Latin American countries. For the longest time span possible given data availability (from 1984 to 2001), we do not find a substitution from Latin American inward FDI to China, when other relevant factors are taken into account. However, concentrating on the last few years (from 1995 to 2001), when FDI boomed worldwide and negotiations for China’s WTO membership accelerated, the “Chinese” effect becomes highly significant. Assessing the impact country by country, China’s inward FDI appears to have hampered that of Mexico and Colombia.China, Latin America, FDI

Internationalising the currency while leveraging massively: the case of China. Bruegel Working Paper 2015/12, October 2015

This paper reviews the steps that China has taken towards financial reform with a particular focus on capital account liberalisation and internationalisation of the use of the renminbi. • After a slowdown in reform momentum during the global financial crisis, there is a clear push towards reform, especially in terms of RMB internationalisation. • During the same period, though, China’s debt has doubled, reaching levels that are clearly above those of most emerging markets. This increases the risks embedded in financial reform and, in particular, capital account liberalisation. • At this juncture, however, China has no option but to press for reform since the current growth model is no longer working and China urgently needs to better allocate its savings

WHAT MAKES BALANCE SHEET EFFECTS DETRIMENTAL FOR THE COUNTRY RISK PREMIUM?

This paper builds upon the empirical literature on the macroeconomic impact of real exchange rate depreciations for a sample of 27 emerging economies. We find that real exchange rate depreciations tend to increase a country’s risk premium. This effect is neither linear nor symmetric: large real exchange depreciations are much more detrimental and real appreciations do not seem to reduce the risk premium. We also show that the main channels for the real exchange rate to affect country risk are external and domestic balance sheet effects, stemming from the sudden increase in the stock of external or domestic dollar-denominated debt, respectively. This is particularly the case in the countries with the largest financial imperfections. Competitiveness is not an important enough factor to outweigh this negative effect. Finally, fixed exchange rate regimes tend to amplify balance sheet effects, beyond the extent of real depreciation. The data indicates that it could be due to a larger accumulation of external debt under fixed regimes.balance sheet effects, financial accelerator theories, exchange rate regime

DETERMINANTS AND IMPACT OF FINANCIAL SECTOR FDI TO EMERGING

This paper reviews the theoretical literature explaining financial FDI, as well as the empirical results on the determinants of financial FDI and its potential effects for the home country. From this revision, we conclude that, at the present stage, the existing theoretical paradigms need to be adapted to explain the recent surge in international banks’ local operations in emerging countries financial sectors. Macroeconomic and risk diversification theories would seem particularly well- suited to explain this reality. The empirical literature on financial FDI has concentrated on bank-specific factors and much less so on macroeconomic determinants, particularly push factors where generally only general FDI literature is available. The survey draws on this literature in those cases where no specific results for financial FDI exist. Finally, the effects of financial FDI on the home country are virtually unknown. The literature on general FDI has focused on employment, trade and investment effects, yet the consequences on the profitability and systemic risk of home’s financial system remain a topic for debate.