Impact of Climate Change on the Santos Harbor, Sao Paulo State (Brazil)

Santos Harbor Area (SHA) in Sao Paulo Coastline (Brazil) is the most important marine cargo transfer terminal in the Southern Hemisphere. A long term relative tidal level variability assessment shows a consistent response to relative sea level rise. A wave data base Wave Watch III was compared with a long term wave data‐base generated by the ERA40‐ECMWF (2003), both local validated. The current bed level of SHA Outer Channel is ‐15.00 m (Chart Datum or, in abbreviation, CD), maintained by dredging. According to the cargo throughput forecast, in 2025, the Access Channel will have to be deepened to level of ‐17.00 m. The feasibility of that choice is discussed from a technical, economical and conceptual navigation point of view in that context. A data set found from a scale model of the whole area of Santos Bay, Estuary and nearby beaches, showed the impact of maritime climate changes upon the coastal area. In the previous researches developed by the authors, it was demonstrated that the wave climate, the tides and tidal currents affect harbor and coastal structures maintenance, beaches stability, tidal inlet, sediment transport, saline intrusion and wetlands. Considering the increasing of the sea hazards and the high values of the infrastructures in that coastline, it is necessary to mitigate the risks. Hence, based on the results obtained by the authors, are highlighted guidelines strategies suggested for Access Channels dimensions, wharves free‐board, jetties dimensions, dredging rates, rigid and flexible littoral defenses and land protection against flooding (including wetlands

Impact of Climate Change on the Santos Harbor, Sao Paulo State (Brazil)

Santos Harbor Area (SHA) in Sao Paulo Coastline (Brazil) is the most important marine cargo transfer terminal in the Southern Hemisphere. A long term relative tidal level variability assessment shows a consistent response to relative sea level rise. A wave data base Wave Watch III was compared with a long term wave data‐base generated by the ERA40‐ECMWF (2003), both local validated. The current bed level of SHA Outer Channel is ‐15.00 m (Chart Datum or, in abbreviation, CD), maintained by dredging. According to the cargo throughput forecast, in 2025, the Access Channel will have to be deepened to level of ‐17.00 m. The feasibility of that choice is discussed from a technical, economical and conceptual navigation point of view in that context. A data set found from a scale model of the whole area of Santos Bay, Estuary and nearby beaches, showed the impact of maritime climate changes upon the coastal area. In the previous researches developed by the authors, it was demonstrated that the wave climate, the tides and tidal currents affect harbor and coastal structures maintenance, beaches stability, tidal inlet, sediment transport, saline intrusion and wetlands. Considering the increasing of the sea hazards and the high values of the infrastructures in that coastline, it is necessary to mitigate the risks. Hence, based on the results obtained by the authors, are highlighted guidelines strategies suggested for Access Channels dimensions, wharves free‐board, jetties dimensions, dredging rates, rigid and flexible littoral defenses and land protection against flooding (including wetlands)

Impacts of climate change on management policy of the harbors, land areas and wetlands in the Sao Paolo State Coastline (Brazil).

Santos harbor and São Sebastião Oil Maritime Terminal are the most important oil and gas facility in the São Paulo State Coastline. Santosharbor had, in the last decade, increased rapidly the container handling rate, being the first in Latin America. Santos Metropolitan Region is one of the most important of Brazilian Coastline, also considering the tourism. For that great economic growth scenario it is very important to have wave climate and tidal levels well known considering the sea hazards influence in ship operations. Since the hind-cast just represents the deep water wave climate, to make time-series of the wave’s parameters in coastal waters, for evaluation of sea hazards and ship operations, it is necessary to take into account the variations of those parameters in shallow waters with coastal instrumental data. Analysis of long term wave data-base (1957- 2002) generated by a comparison between wave’s data modeled by a “deep water model” (ERA40-ECMWF) and measured wave’s data in the years 1982-1984 by a coastal buoy in Santos littoral (São Paulo State, Brazil) was made. Validation checking procedures with instrumental measurements of storm surges made in other years than 1982-1984 shows high level of confidence. These data, obtained from the climatological analysis compared with a data set found from a scale model of the whole area of Santos Bay, Estuary and nearby beaches (Brazil), showed the impact of maritime climate changes, wave climate and tides upon harbor and coastal structures maintenance, beaches stability, tidal inlet saline intrusion and wetlands flooding. In the same time, the complex environmental system, that characterized the area included between Santos and Caraguatatuba, generates different natural hazard event affecting the maritime activity. A comparative study about the coastal flooding (Santos area) and the fluvial flooding (Juqueriquerê river) was conducted. An analysis about the sea level rise, the wave climate and the flooding risk as well as the sediment transport was developed. Considering the increasing of the sea hazards, the high values of the facilities and infrastructures in São Paulo State Coastline, it is necessary to mitigate the risks from the point of view of the harbor and coastal structures maintenance and projects purposes increasing defenses procedures. Hence, based on the results obtained by the Authors in previous researches, are highlighted guidelines strategies suggested for Access Channels dimensions, wharves free-board, jetties and breakwaters dimensions, dredging rates, rigid and flexible littoral defenses, saline intrusion and land protection against flooding (including wetlands)

Extreme Events Assessment Methodology Coupling Debris Flow, Flooding and Tidal Levels in the Coastal Floodplain of the San Paulo North Coast (Brazil)

The North Coastal Region of the State of São Paulo, which comprises the Municipalities of Caraguatatuba, São Sebas-tião, Ilhabela and Ubatuba, is one of the most prone to flooding and debris flow deposition Brazilian areas, owing to hydrological extreme rainfall events usually coupled with extreme tidal levels. This risk is also high due to human lives and material assets, with increasing population rates and the establishment of large Companies such as the Oil industry, with reduced defense/prevention measures and works. The catastrophic scenario of the city of Caraguatatuba, in March 1967, resulting from one of the most serious natural disasters in Brazil, fosters discussions about probabilities of heavy rainfall-caused events and rise in the sea level in coastal areas. Hence, this research is a consequence of this reality. The research is founded on an innovative methodology based on the analysis of past data of rainfall and tidal stations, complemented with debris flow registers in the region of the North coastal zone of the State of São Paulo (Brazil). The analysis developed involved the meteorological, hydraulic, geotechnical and statistical knowledge areas. Practical results are intended to be used for urban planning, designs of macro-drainage, fluvial, maritime projects and debris flow retention structures. These practical applications will then associate the probability of occurrence of certain types of heavy rainfall-caused events such as flooding or debris flow coupled with a corresponding increase in tidal level

Extreme events assessment methodology as a tool for engineering adaptation measures – case study of North Coast of Sao Paulo State (SP)

The North Coastal Region of the State of São Paulo, which comprises the Municipalities of Caraguatatuba, São Sebastião, Ilhabela and Ubatuba, is one of the Brazilian areas most prone to flooding and debris flow deposition, owing to hydrological extreme rainfall events, usually coupled with extreme tidal levels. The catastrophic scene of the city of Caraguatatuba March 18, 1967, resulting from one of the most serious natural disasters in Brazil, fosters discussions about probabilities of heavy rainfall-caused events and subsequent rise in the sea level in coastal areas. The research is founded on an innovative methodology based on the analysis of past rainfall and tidal station data, complemented with debris flow measurements and coupled with FLO-2D hydrodinamical model. The analysis involved meteorological, hydraulic, geotechnical and statistical knowledge areas applied to the region of the North coastal zone of the State of São Paulo (Brazil). The obtained results are a good predictor of the probability of occurrence of certain types of heavy rainfall-caused events such as flooding or debris flow, coupled with a corresponding increase in tidal levels. These practical results are intended to be used for urban planning, designs of macrodrainage, fluvial, maritime projects and debris flow retention structures

Prediction of Wetland Loss Due to Sea Level Rise Around the Largest Port Area in Latin America

Santos’s mangroves are important wetlands located in Brazilian coast, a fishing area inside Santos Bay. The overall healthy mangroves area along the riparian zones influencing the Santos Estuary is around 25.20 km2. The resulting tidal level recorded from Port of Santos tide gauge (from 1940 to 2014), also located in the estuary, shows consistent increasing trend. One healthy mangrove was selected for a previous qualitative biological survey to better understand the characteristics of the habitat to be monitored and evaluated about the possible impacts in the next decades. The mangroves situated a few meters upper from the sea level and some other areas have the risk to be submerged till 2085 which will seriously affect the riparian mangroves biome. Indeed, the mangrove area is confined downward by the low tide level and upward by existing structures, roads, rural and urban areas

Estimation of Sea Level Rise in Santos Port (Brazil)

Santos Port is located in São Paulo State Coast (Brazil), in an estuarine area inside Santos Bay named Baixada Santista. The currents behavior is forced by tides. The resulting tidal level variability (high tide, mean sea level and low tide) recorded from Santos Dock Company tide gauge (1940 to 2014), the longest series of continuous record of tides in Brazil, shows a consistent increasing trend. The estimation about the magnitude of mean sea level rise (MSLR) in recommendations, guidelines or requirements issued by different countries and agencies from 1990 provide examples of different approaches used around the world in comparison with the local trends obtained for Santos Port. It is concluded that MSLR will have a considerable impact upon the port, with approximately 1.0 m rise estimated from 1990 to 2100. Baixada Santista is a lowland situated a few meters upper from the sea level and some areas are possible to be submerged in the end of this century. Other two locations in São Paulo State Coast, Cananeia and Ubatuba, respectively to the SE and NW of Santos, were also compared with the port tidal data to evaluate the consistency of the trends

Potential Use of Mangroves as Nature-Based Solutions to Improve Navigation Conditions in a Port in Southern Brazil

Mangroves and the associated shoal forest known as ‘restinga' are ecosystems of great ecological relevance that play a significant role in the protection of the coastline in tropical regions. In Brazil, the coastal region has been severely affected by urban expansion. The Paranaguá Port, located in Paraná State (Brazil), is the fourth most important Brazilian port in throughput, and is located in an estuarine region which features large mangrove forests. An historical assessment of its inner access channel dredging rates was made to assess the impacts that the expansion of the Port in the last 30 years may have caused to the ecosystem. In the following, the historical data concerning the dredged volume in the inner access channel was compared to the mangrove and the shoal forest associated variation, aiming to establish a potential correlation between vegetation and siltation in the inner access channel to show as the preservation or restoration of specific ecosystems has potential to Nature-Based Solutions