Forecasting Player Behavioral Data and Simulating in-Game Events

Understanding player behavior is fundamental in game data science. Video games evolve as players interact with the game, so being able to foresee player experience would help to ensure a successful game development. In particular, game developers need to evaluate beforehand the impact of in-game events. Simulation optimization of these events is crucial to increase player engagement and maximize monetization. We present an experimental analysis of several methods to forecast game-related variables, with two main aims: to obtain accurate predictions of in-app purchases and playtime in an operational production environment, and to perform simulations of in-game events in order to maximize sales and playtime. Our ultimate purpose is to take a step towards the data-driven development of games. The results suggest that, even though the performance of traditional approaches such as ARIMA is still better, the outcomes of state-of-the-art techniques like deep learning are promising. Deep learning comes up as a well-suited general model that could be used to forecast a variety of time series with different dynamic behaviors

Asteroseismology

Asteroseismology is the determination of the interior structures of stars by using their oscillations as seismic waves. Simple explanations of the astrophysical background and some basic theoretical considerations needed in this rapidly evolving field are followed by introductions to the most important concepts and methods on the basis of example. Previous and potential applications of asteroseismology are reviewed and future trends are attempted to be foreseen.Comment: 38 pages, 13 figures, to appear in: "Planets, Stars and Stellar Systems", eds. T. D. Oswalt et al., Springer Verla

Anterior anal sphincter repair can be of long term benefit: a 12-year case cohort from a single surgeon

BACKGROUND: Early surgical results of anterior sphincter repair for faecal incontinence can be good, but in the longer term are often disappointing. This study aimed to determine the short and long term outcomes from anterior sphincter repair and identify factors predictive of long term success. METHODS: Patients who underwent anterior sphincter repair between 1989 and 2001 in one institution were identified. Postal questionnaires were sent to patients, which included validated scoring systems for symptom severity and quality of life assessments for faecal incontinence. Patient demographics and risk factors were recorded as were the results of anorectal physiology studies and endoanal ultrasound. RESULTS: Eighty-five patients underwent repair by one consultant. The length of follow up ranged from 1 to 12 years. Most patients (96%) had early symptom improvement postoperatively. Of the 47 patients assessed long term (≥ 5 years), 28 (60%) maintained this success. Significant improvements in quality of life were observed (P < 0.001). Neither patient, surgical nor anorectal physiology study parameters were predictive of outcome. CONCLUSION: There were no predictive factors of outcome success and no changes in anal manometry identified, however anterior sphincter repair remains worthwhile. Changes in compliance of the anorectum may be responsible for symptom improvement

Effect modification of air pollution on Urinary 8-Hydroxy-2'-Deoxyguanosine by genotypes: an application of the multiple testing procedure to identify significant SNP interactions

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Air pollution is associated with adverse human health, but mechanisms through which pollution exerts effects remain to be clarified. One suggested pathway is that pollution causes oxidative stress. If so, oxidative stress-related genotypes may modify the oxidative response defenses to pollution exposure.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We explored the potential pathway by examining whether an array of oxidative stress-related genes (twenty single nucleotide polymorphisms, SNPs in nine genes) modified associations of pollutants (organic carbon (OC), ozone and sulfate) with urinary 8-hydroxy-2-deoxygunosine (8-OHdG), a biomarker of oxidative stress among the 320 aging men. We used a Multiple Testing Procedure in R modified by our team to identify the significance of the candidate genes adjusting for <it>a priori </it>covariates.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found that glutathione S-tranferase P1 (GSTP1, rs1799811), M1 and catalase (rs2284367) and group-specific component (GC, rs2282679, rs1155563) significantly or marginally significantly modified effects of OC and/or sulfate with larger effects among those carrying the wild type of GSTP1<it/>, catalase, non-wild type of <it>GC </it>and the non-null of GSTM1.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Polymorphisms of oxidative stress-related genes modified effects of OC and/or sulfate on 8-OHdG, suggesting that effects of OC or sulfate on 8-OHdG and other endpoints may be through the oxidative stress pathway.</p

A quantitative polymerase chain reaction-enzyme immunoassay for accurate measurements of human papillomavirus type 16 DNA levels in cervical scrapings

A quantitative polymerase chain reaction-enzyme immunoassay (Q-PCR-EIA) was developed to measure the amount of human papillomavirus (HPV) 16 DNA per genome equivalent in cervical scrapings. The quantitative approach was based on a combined competitive PCR for both HPV 16, using the general primer GP5+/6+ PCR, and β-globin DNA. The two competitive PCRs involve co-amplification of target sequences and exogenously added DNA constructs carrying a rearranged 30 bp sequence in the probe-binding region. The accuracy of quantification by combining the two competitive PCR assays was validated on mixtures of HPV 16 containing cervical cancer cells of CaSki and SiHa cell lines. Comparison of this fully quantitative PCR assay with two semi-quantitative HPV PCR assays on a series of crude cell suspensions from HPV 16 containing cervical scrapings revealed remarkable differences in the calculated relative HPV load between samples. We found evidence that correction for both intertube variations in PCR efficiency and number of input cells/integrity of DNA significantly influence the outcome of studies on viral DNA load in crude cell suspensions of cervical scrapings. Therefore, accurate measurements on viral DNA load in cervical scrapings require corrections for these phenomena, which can be achieved by application of this fully quantitative approach. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Body fatness and physical activity at young ages and the risk of breast cancer in premenopausal women

We examined the relationship between body fatness, sports participation and breast cancer risk in 1560 premenopausal cases and 1548 controls, from three related population-based case–control studies in the UK. Half of the women with breast cancer were aged less than 36 years at diagnosis. Women who perceived themselves as plump at age 10 years had a relative risk of 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.69–0.99, P=0.03) as compared with those who perceived themselves as thin. Self-reported obesity compared with leanness at diagnosis was associated with a relative risk of 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.56–1.06, P=0.11). Women who reported having been plump at age 10 years and overweight or obese at diagnosis had a relative risk of 0.75 (95% confidence interval 0.56–1.01, P=0.06) as compared with those who reported being thin at age 10 years and at diagnosis. Findings for three related measures of body fatness suggested that obesity is associated with a reduced risk of premenopausal breast cancer. There was no association between sports participation and breast cancer risk in these premenopausal women. The relative risk for spending an average of more than 1 h per week in sports compared with less from ages 12 to 30 years was 1.00 (95% CI 0.86–1.16, P=0.98)