Estimation of hospital emergency room data using otc pharmaceutical sales and least mean square filters

BACKGROUND: Surveillance of Over-the-Counter pharmaceutical (OTC) sales as a potential early indicator of developing public health conditions, in particular in cases of interest to Bioterrorism, has been suggested in the literature. The data streams of interest are quite non-stationary and we address this problem from the viewpoint of linear adaptive filter theory: the clinical data is the primary channel which is to be estimated from the OTC data that form the reference channels. METHOD: The OTC data are grouped into a few categories and we estimate the clinical data using each individual category, as well as using a multichannel filter that encompasses all the OTC categories. The estimation (in the least mean square sense) is performed using an FIR (Finite Impulse Response) filter and the normalized LMS algorithm. RESULTS: We show all estimation results and present a table of effectiveness of each OTC category, as well as the effectiveness of the combined filtering operation. Individual group results clearly show the effectiveness of each particular group in estimating the clinical hospital data and serve as a guide as to which groups have sustained correlations with the clinical data. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that Multichannle adaptive FIR least squares filtering is a viable means of estimating public health conditions from OTC sales, and provide quantitative measures of time dependent correlations between the clinical data and the OTC data channels

Estimation of hospital emergency room data using otc pharmaceutical sales and least mean square filters-3

<p><b>Copyright information:</b></p><p>Taken from "Estimation of hospital emergency room data using otc pharmaceutical sales and least mean square filters"</p><p>BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making 2004;4():5-5.</p><p>Published online 15 Mar 2004</p><p>PMCID:PMC419503.</p><p>Copyright © 2004 Najmi and Magruder; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article: verbatim copying and redistribution of this article are permitted in all media for any purpose, provided this notice is preserved along with the article's original URL.</p>f individual LMS filters as well as the Multi-channel on

An adaptive prediction and detection algorithm for multistream syndromic surveillance

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Surveillance of Over-the-Counter pharmaceutical (OTC) sales as a potential early indicator of developing public health conditions, in particular in cases of interest to biosurvellance, has been suggested in the literature. This paper is a continuation of a previous study in which we formulated the problem of estimating clinical data from OTC sales in terms of optimal LMS linear and Finite Impulse Response (FIR) filters. In this paper we extend our results to predict clinical data multiple steps ahead using OTC sales as well as the clinical data itself.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The OTC data are grouped into a few categories and we predict the clinical data using a multichannel filter that encompasses all the past OTC categories as well as the past clinical data itself. The prediction is performed using FIR (Finite Impulse Response) filters and the recursive least squares method in order to adapt rapidly to nonstationary behaviour. In addition, we inject simulated events in both clinical and OTC data streams to evaluate the predictions by computing the Receiver Operating Characteristic curves of a threshold detector based on predicted outputs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We present all prediction results showing the effectiveness of the combined filtering operation. In addition, we compute and present the performance of a detector using the prediction output.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Multichannel adaptive FIR least squares filtering provides a viable method of predicting public health conditions, as represented by clinical data, from OTC sales, and/or the clinical data. The potential value to a biosurveillance system cannot, however, be determined without studying this approach in the presence of transient events (nonstationary events of relatively short duration and fast rise times). Our simulated events superimposed on actual OTC and clinical data allow us to provide an upper bound on that potential value under some restricted conditions. Based on our ROC curves we argue that a biosurveillance system can provide early warning of an impending clinical event using ancillary data streams (such as OTC) with established correlations with the clinical data, and a prediction method that can react to nonstationary events sufficiently fast. Whether OTC (or other data streams yet to be identified) provide the best source of predicting clinical data is still an open question. We present a framework and an example to show how to measure the effectiveness of predictions, and compute an upper bound on this performance for the Recursive Least Squares method when the following two conditions are met: (1) an event of sufficient strength exists in both data streams, without distortion, and (2) it occurs in the OTC (or other ancillary streams) earlier than in the clinical data.</p