Developing risk prediction models for type 2 diabetes: a systematic review of methodology and reporting

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The World Health Organisation estimates that by 2030 there will be approximately 350 million people with type 2 diabetes. Associated with renal complications, heart disease, stroke and peripheral vascular disease, early identification of patients with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes or those at an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes is an important challenge. We sought to systematically review and critically assess the conduct and reporting of methods used to develop risk prediction models for predicting the risk of having undiagnosed (prevalent) or future risk of developing (incident) type 2 diabetes in adults.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a systematic search of PubMed and EMBASE databases to identify studies published before May 2011 that describe the development of models combining two or more variables to predict the risk of prevalent or incident type 2 diabetes. We extracted key information that describes aspects of developing a prediction model including study design, sample size and number of events, outcome definition, risk predictor selection and coding, missing data, model-building strategies and aspects of performance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Thirty-nine studies comprising 43 risk prediction models were included. Seventeen studies (44%) reported the development of models to predict incident type 2 diabetes, whilst 15 studies (38%) described the derivation of models to predict prevalent type 2 diabetes. In nine studies (23%), the number of events per variable was less than ten, whilst in fourteen studies there was insufficient information reported for this measure to be calculated. The number of candidate risk predictors ranged from four to sixty-four, and in seven studies it was unclear how many risk predictors were considered. A method, not recommended to select risk predictors for inclusion in the multivariate model, using statistical significance from univariate screening was carried out in eight studies (21%), whilst the selection procedure was unclear in ten studies (26%). Twenty-one risk prediction models (49%) were developed by categorising all continuous risk predictors. The treatment and handling of missing data were not reported in 16 studies (41%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We found widespread use of poor methods that could jeopardise model development, including univariate pre-screening of variables, categorisation of continuous risk predictors and poor handling of missing data. The use of poor methods affects the reliability of the prediction model and ultimately compromises the accuracy of the probability estimates of having undiagnosed type 2 diabetes or the predicted risk of developing type 2 diabetes. In addition, many studies were characterised by a generally poor level of reporting, with many key details to objectively judge the usefulness of the models often omitted.</p

Assessing health-related quality of life in patients with inflammatory bowel disease, in Crete, Greece

BACKGROUND: Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) is an important outcome measure in Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD). The aim of our study was to assess HRQoL in a population of 135 Greek patients with IBD. METHODS: A cohort of 135 patients with IBD, 81 with ulcerative colitis (UC) and 54 with Crohn's disease (CD) were enrolled in our study. Demographic and disease-related data were recorded. HRQoL was assessed by a disease-specific and a generic questionnaire, IBDQ and SF-36, respectively. Disease activity was assessed by Harvey-Bradshaw Index and the Colitis Activity Index for CD and UC patients, respectively. RESULTS: Among all variables recorded in our study, only disease activity had a significant effect on HRQoL. Patients with active disease scored significantly lower on both IBDQ and SF-36 when compared to those in remission. Only two among the four IBDQ dimensions, bowel and systemic, had significant ability in distinguishing best patients in remission from those with active disease. CONCLUSIONS: IBD has a negative impact on HRQoL. Patients with active disease are more impaired than patients in remission. In our population of patients bowel and systemic dimensions had a predominant value in patients' perception of quality of life. Patients in our study using the same instrument scored higher than previously reported

The gut microbiota: a major player in the toxicity of environmental pollutants?

Exposure to environmental chemicals has been linked to various health disorders, including obesity, type 2 diabetes, cancer and dysregulation of the immune and reproductive systems, whereas the gastrointestinal microbiota critically contributes to a variety of host metabolic and immune functions. We aimed to evaluate the bidirectional relationship between gut bacteria and environmental pollutants and to assess the toxicological relevance of the bacteria–xenobiotic interplay for the host. We examined studies using isolated bacteria, faecal or caecal suspensions—germ-free or antibiotic-treated animals—as well as animals reassociated with a microbiota exposed to environmental chemicals. The literature indicates that gut microbes have an extensive capacity to metabolise environmental chemicals that can be classified in five core enzymatic families (azoreductases, nitroreductases, β-glucuronidases, sulfatases and β-lyases) unequivocally involved in the metabolism of >30 environmental contaminants. There is clear evidence that bacteria-dependent metabolism of pollutants modulates the toxicity for the host. Conversely, environmental contaminants from various chemical families have been shown to alter the composition and/or the metabolic activity of the gastrointestinal bacteria, which may be an important factor contributing to shape an individual’s microbiotype. The physiological consequences of these alterations have not been studied in details but pollutant-induced alterations of the gut bacteria are likely to contribute to their toxicity. In conclusion, there is a body of evidence suggesting that gut microbiota are a major, yet underestimated element that must be considered to fully evaluate the toxicity of environmental contaminants

Identification of serum angiopoietin-2 as a biomarker for clinical outcome of colorectal cancer patients treated with bevacizumab-containing therapy

BACKGROUND: The combination of chemotherapy with the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) antibody bevacizumab is a standard of care in advanced colorectal cancer (CRC). However, biomarkers predicting outcome of bevacizumab-containing treatment are lacking. As angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) is a key regulator of vascular remodelling in concert with VEGF, we investigated its role as a biomarker in metastatic CRC. METHODS: Serum Ang-2 levels were measured in 33 healthy volunteers and 90 patients with CRC. Of these, 34 had metastatic disease and received bevacizumab-containing therapy. To determine the tissue of origin of Ang-2, quantitative real-time PCR was performed on microdissected cryosections of human CRC and in a murine xenograft model of CRC using species-specific amplification. RESULTS: Ang-2 originated from the stromal compartment of CRC tissues. Serum Ang-2 levels were significantly elevated in patients with metastatic CRC compared with healthy controls. Amongst patients receiving bevacizumab-containing treatment, low pre-therapeutic serum Ang-2 levels were associated with a significant better response rate (82 vs 31%; P<0.01), a prolonged median progression-free survival (14.1 vs 8.5 months; P<0.01) and a reduction of 91% in the hazard of death (P<0.05). CONCLUSION: Serum Ang-2 is a candidate biomarker for outcome of patients with metastatic CRC treated with bevacizumab-containing therapy, and it should be further validated to customise combined chemotherapeutic and anti-angiogenic treatment. British Journal of Cancer (2010) 103, 1407-1414. doi: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6605925 www.bjcancer.com Published online 5 October 2010 (C) 2010 Cancer Research U

Nurse-patient interaction and communication: a systematic literature review

Aim: The purpose of this review is to describe the use and definitions of the concepts of nurse-patient interaction and nurse-patient communication in nursing literature. Furthermore, empirical findings of nurse-patient communication research will be presented, and applied theories will be shown. Method: An integrative literature search was executed. The total number of relevant citations found was 97. The search results were reviewed, and key points were extracted in a standardized form. Extracts were then qualitatively summarized according to relevant aspects and categories for the review. Results: The relation of interaction and communication is not clearly defined in nursing literature. Often the terms are used interchangeably or synonymously, and a clear theoretical definition is avoided or rather implicit. Symbolic interactionism and classic sender-receiver models were by far the most referred to models. Compared to the use of theories of adjacent sciences, the use of original nursing theories related to communication is rather infrequent. The articles that try to clarify the relation of both concepts see communication as a special or subtype of interaction. Conclusion: The included citations all conclude that communication skills can be learned to a certain degree. Involvement of patients and their role in communication often is neglected by authors. Considering the mutual nature of communication, patients’ share in conversation should be taken more into consideration than it has been until now. Nursing science has to integrate its own theories of nursing care with theories of communication and interaction from other scientific disciplines like sociology

Prognostic DNA methylation markers for sporadic colorectal cancer: a systematic review

Background Biomarkers that can predict the prognosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients and that can stratify high-risk early stage patients from low-risk early stage patients are urgently needed for better management of CRC. During the last decades, a large variety of prognostic DNA methylation markers has been published in the literature. However, to date, none of these markers are used in clinical practice. Methods To obtain an overview of the number of published prognostic methylation markers for CRC, the number of markers that was validated independently, and the current level of evidence (LoE), we conducted a systematic review of PubMed, EMBASE, and MEDLINE. In addition, we scored studies based on the REMARK guidelines that were established in order to attain more transparency and complete reporting of prognostic biomarker studies. Eighty-three studies reporting on 123 methylation markers fulfilled the study entry criteria and were scored according to REMARK. Results Sixty-three studies investigated single methylation markers, whereas 20 studies reported combinations of methylation markers. We observed substantial variation regarding the reporting of sample sizes and patient characteristics, statistical analyses, and methodology. The median (range) REMARK score for the studies was 10.7 points (4.5 to 17.5) out of a maximum of 20 possible points. The median REMARK score was lower in studies, which reported a p value below 0.05 versus those, which did not (p = 0.005). A borderline statistically significant association was observed between the reported p value of the survival analysis and the size of the study population (p = 0.051). Only 23 out of 123 markers (17%) were investigated in two or more study series. For 12 markers, and two multimarker panels, consistent results were reported in two or more study series. For four markers, the current LoE is level II, for all other markers, the LoE is lower. Conclusion This systematic review reflects that adequate reporting according to REMARK and validation of prognostic methylation markers is absent in the majority of CRC methylation marker studies. However, this systematic review provides a comprehensive overview of published prognostic methylation markers for CRC and highlights the most promising markers that have been published in the last two decades

Diagnostic accuracy of whole-body MRI versus standard imaging pathways for metastatic disease in newly diagnosed non-small-cell lung cancer: the prospective Streamline L trial

BACKGROUND: Whole-body magnetic resonance imaging (WB-MRI) could be an alternative to multi-modality staging of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), but its diagnostic accuracy, effect on staging times, number of tests needed, cost, and effect on treatment decisions are unknown. We aimed to prospectively compare the diagnostic accuracy and efficiency of WB-MRI-based staging pathways with standard pathways in NSCLC. METHODS: The Streamline L trial was a prospective, multicentre trial done in 16 hospitals in England. Eligible patients were 18 years or older, with newly diagnosed NSCLC that was potentially radically treatable on diagnostic chest CT (defined as stage IIIb or less). Exclusion criteria were severe systemic disease, pregnancy, contraindications to MRI, or histologies other than NSCLC. Patients underwent WB-MRI, the result of which was withheld until standard staging investigations were complete and the first treatment decision made. The multidisciplinary team recorded its treatment decision based on standard investigations, then on the WB-MRI staging pathway (WB-MRI plus additional tests generated), and finally on all tests. The primary outcome was difference in per-patient sensitivity for metastases between standard and WB-MRI staging pathways against a consensus reference standard at 12 months, in the per-protocol population. Secondary outcomes were difference in per-patient specificity for metastatic disease detection between standard and WB-MRI staging pathways, differences in treatment decisions, staging efficiency (time taken, test number, and costs) and per-organ sensitivity and specificity for metastases and per-patient agreement for local T and N stage. This trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial registry, number ISRCTN50436483, and is complete. FINDINGS: Between Feb 26, 2013, and Sept 5, 2016, 976 patients were screened for eligibility. 353 patients were recruited, 187 of whom completed the trial; 52 (28%) had metastasis at baseline. Pathway sensitivity was 50% (95% CI 37-63) for WB-MRI and 54% (41-67) for standard pathways, a difference of 4% (-7 to 15, p=0·73). No adverse events related to imaging were reported. Specificity did not differ between WB-MRI (93% [88-96]) and standard pathways (95% [91-98], p=0·45). Agreement with the multidisciplinary team's final treatment decision was 98% for WB-MRI and 99% for the standard pathway. Time to complete staging was shorter for WB-MRI (13 days [12-14]) than for the standard pathway (19 days [17-21]); a 6-day (4-8) difference. The number of tests required was similar WB-MRI (one [1-1]) and standard pathways (one [1-2]). Mean per-patient costs were £317 (273-361) for WBI-MRI and £620 (574-666) for standard pathways. INTERPRETATION: WB-MRI staging pathways have similar accuracy to standard pathways, and reduce the staging time and costs. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research

Diagnostic accuracy of whole-body MRI versus standard imaging pathways for metastatic disease in newly diagnosed colorectal cancer: the prospective Streamline C trial

Background: Whole-body magnetic resonance imaging(WB-MRI) may be an alternative to multi-modality staging of colon cancer but its relative diagnostic accuracy, effect on staging times, test number, cost, and impact on treatment decisions are unknown. We undertook a prospective multicentre cohort study to address this (ISRCTN43958015). Methods: We recruited from 16 English hospitals. Eligible patients were 18 years or older, with newly diagnosed colon cancer. Patients underwent WB-MRI, the result of which was withheld until standard staging investigations were complete. The multi-disciplinary team (MDT) recorded its first treatment decision based on standard investigations, then the alternate WB-MRI staging pathway (WB-MRI plus any additional tests generated), and finally on all tests combined. The primary outcome was difference in per-patient sensitivity for metastases between standard and WB-MRI staging pathways against a consensus reference standard at 12-months. Differences in treatment decisions, staging time, test number, and costs were secondary outcomes. Findings: 299 patients completed the trial; 68 (23%) had metastasis at baseline. The WB-MRI pathway was 68% (95% CI 56 to 78) sensitive, not significantly different from standard pathways (63% [51 to 74]), a 4% (-5 to 13) difference, p=0.508. Specificity was not significantly different (95% [92 to 97], vs. 94% [90 to 96]). Agreement with the MDT final treatment decision was 96% and 95% for WB-MRI and standard pathways respectively. Time to complete staging was significantly shorter for WB-MRI (8 days [6 to 9] vs. 13 days [11 to 15]), a 5-day (3 to 7) difference. WB-MRI pathways required significantly fewer tests (median 1 [1 to 1] vs. 2 [2 to 2]), a difference of 1 (1 to 1). Mean per-patient staging costs were £216 and £285 for WB-MRI and standard pathways respectively. Interpretation: WB-MRI staging pathways are as accurate as standard pathways, but reduce tests, staging time, and cost