Hydropower plans in eastern and southern Africa increase risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption

Hydropower comprises a significant and rapidly expanding proportion of electricity production in eastern and southern Africa. In both regions, hydropower is exposed to high levels of climate variability and regional climate linkages are strong, yet an understanding of spatial interdependences is lacking. Here we consider river basin configuration and define regions of coherent rainfall variability using cluster analysis to illustrate exposure to the risk of hydropower supply disruption of current (2015) and planned (2030) hydropower sites. Assuming completion of the dams planned, hydropower will become increasingly concentrated in the Nile (from 62% to 82% of total regional capacity) and Zambezi (from 73% to 85%) basins. By 2030, 70% and 59% of total hydropower capacity will be located in one cluster of rainfall variability in eastern and southern Africa, respectively, increasing the risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption in each region. Linking of nascent regional electricity sharing mechanisms could mitigate intraregional risk, although these mechanisms face considerable political and infrastructural challenges

Alternative energy policy for mitigating the asynchrony of the wind-power industry’s supply chain in Brazil

High dependency on hydroelectricity has revealed drawbacks in the security of power supplies as a consequence of the climate variability in South America. Under these conditions, Brazil is starting to consider alternative renewable sources for energy production, seeking to avoid periods of scarcity while also promoting clean technologies in its electricity market. Since 2004, wind power has shown a significant rise in terms of installed capacity in this country. Despite increases in wind-power units, Brazil suffers from delays in setting up its transmission infrastructure, which affects the performance of the wind-power supply chain. This chapter presents a simulation model that helps assess the long-term effects of an alternative sustainable energy policy, which may contribute to overcoming the asynchrony between renewable generation policy and the insufficiency of transmission infrastructure. Using lessons learned from simulations, the research concludes that the transmission industry in Brazil requires appropriate investment incentives for just-in-time synchrony with the expansion of the wind industry