Meta-analysis of tumour burden in pre-operative axillary ultrasound positive and negative breast cancer patients

Management of the axilla in breast cancer is becoming increasingly conservative. Patients identified with a low axillary nodal burden (two or fewer involved nodes) at sentinel node biopsy (SNB) can avoid completion axillary node clearance (cANC). 'Fast track' to ANC in patients with involved nodes on pre-operative ultrasound may be over-treating a subgroup of these patients with low nodal burden, which would have precluded their need for ANC. This systematic review assesses the proportion of patients with involved nodes on pre-operative axillary ultrasound, which would fit low axillary burden criteria. Meta-analysis of studies comparing axillary burden of breast cancer patients identified as pre-operative ultrasound negative versus positive was performed. The primary outcome measure was the number of patients with two or fewer involved nodes (macrometastases only). Pooled odds ratio (OR), 95% confidence intervals (CIs), means and probabilities of identifying two or fewer involved nodes versus greater than two were calculated. Six studies reported the axillary burden in 4271 patients who were either directed straight to ANC or cANC after SNB. There was a significantly greater axillary burden in the ultrasound positive versus negative groups (OR 5.95, 95% CI 5.80-6.11) with mean nodal retrieval values of 2.9 [standard error (SE) 0.2] and 1.6 (SE 0.2) nodes, respectively. Cumulative probabilities identified 78.9% of ultrasound negative and 43.2% of ultrasound positive patients possessed low axillary burden. Pre-operative ultrasound positive patients have significantly higher axillary burden. However, nearly half do fit the criteria of low axillary burden and could be considered for omission of ANC

Nowcasting pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 hospitalizations in the Netherlands

During emerging epidemics of infectious diseases, it is vital to have up-to-date information on epidemic trends, such as incidence or health care demand, because hospitals and intensive care units have limited excess capacity. However, real-time tracking of epidemics is difficult, because of the inherent delay between onset of symptoms or hospitalizations, and reporting. We propose a robust algorithm to correct for reporting delays, using the observed distribution of reporting delays. We apply the algorithm to pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 hospitalizations as reported in the Netherlands. We show that the proposed algorithm is able to provide unbiased predictions of the actual number of hospitalizations in real-time during the ascent and descent of the epidemic. The real-time predictions of admissions are useful to adjust planning in hospitals to avoid exceeding their capacity

Digital IAPT: the effectiveness & cost-effectiveness of internet-delivered interventions for depression and anxiety disorders in the Improving Access to Psychological Therapies programme: study protocol for a randomised control trial

BACKGROUND: Depression and anxiety are common mental health disorders worldwide. The UK's Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) programme is part of the National Health Service (NHS) designed to provide a stepped care approach to treating people with anxiety and depressive disorders. Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT) is widely used, with computerised and internet-delivered cognitive behavioural therapy (cCBT and iCBT, respectively) being a suitable IAPT approved treatment alternative for step 2, low- intensity treatment. iCBT has accumulated a large empirical base for treating depression and anxiety disorders. However, the cost-effectiveness and impact of these interventions in the longer-term is not routinely assessed by IAPT services. The current study aims to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of internet-delivered interventions for symptoms of depression and anxiety disorders in IAPT. METHODS: The study is a parallel-groups, randomised controlled trial examining the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of iCBT interventions for depression and anxiety disorders, against a waitlist control group. The iCBT treatments are of 8 weeks duration and will be supported by regular post-session feedback by Psychological Wellbeing Practitioners. Assessments will be conducted at baseline, during, and at the end of the 8-week treatment and at 3, 6, 9, and 12-month follow-up. A diagnostic interview will be employed at baseline and 3-month follow-up. Participants in the waitlist control group will complete measures at baseline and week 8, at which point they will receive access to the treatment. All adult users of the Berkshire NHS Trust IAPT Talking Therapies Step 2 services will be approached to participate and measured against set eligibility criteria. Primary outcome measures will assess anxiety and depressive symptoms using the GAD-7 and PHQ-9, respectively. Secondary outcome measures will allow for the evaluation of long-term outcomes, mediators and moderators of outcome, and cost-effectiveness of treatment. Analysis will be conducted on a per protocol and intention-to-treat basis. DISCUSSION: This study seeks to evaluate the immediate and longer-term impact, as well as the cost effectiveness of internet-delivered interventions for depression and anxiety. This study will contribute to the already established literature on internet-delivered interventions worldwide. The study has the potential to show how iCBT can enhance service provision, and the findings will likely be generalisable to other health services. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN ISRCTN91967124. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN91967124 . Web: http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN91967124 . Clinicaltrials.gov : NCT03188575. Trial registration date: June 8, 2017 (prospectively registered)

Three-Wall Segment (TriSeg) Model Describing Mechanics and Hemodynamics of Ventricular Interaction

A mathematical model (TriSeg model) of ventricular mechanics incorporating mechanical interaction of the left and right ventricular free walls and the interventricular septum is presented. Global left and right ventricular pump mechanics were related to representative myofiber mechanics in the three ventricular walls, satisfying the principle of conservation of energy. The walls were mechanically coupled satisfying tensile force equilibrium in the junction. Wall sizes and masses were rendered by adaptation to normalize mechanical myofiber load to physiological standard levels. The TriSeg model was implemented in the previously published lumped closed-loop CircAdapt model of heart and circulation. Simulation results of cardiac mechanics and hemodynamics during normal ventricular loading, acute pulmonary hypertension, and chronic pulmonary hypertension (including load adaptation) agreed with clinical data as obtained in healthy volunteers and pulmonary hypertension patients. In chronic pulmonary hypertension, the model predicted right ventricular free wall hypertrophy, increased systolic pulmonary flow acceleration, and increased right ventricular isovolumic contraction and relaxation times. Furthermore, septal curvature decreased linearly with its transmural pressure difference. In conclusion, the TriSeg model enables realistic simulation of ventricular mechanics including interaction between left and right ventricular pump mechanics, dynamics of septal geometry, and myofiber mechanics in the three ventricular walls