Does spatial proximity to small towns matter for rural livelihoods? A propensity score matching analysis in Ethiopia

The spatial dimension of rural–urban linkage has become a new subject of debate in regional development. In most empirical research the focus has usually been on the role of small urban centers in rural development. However, the effects of different particulars of the linkage such as spatial proximity to small towns on income of the hinterlands’ people have been less explored. The central purpose of this paper is, hence, assessing the effect of spatial proximity to small towns on income of the people living in the surrounding rural hinterlands. It also provides a bird’s-eye view of the livelihood strategies used by rural households in using town services. A propensity score matching technique is employed to estimate the effects. It is apparent in the results of the study that, controlling for other confounding factors, spatial proximity to small towns has a significantly positive effect on the income of the people living in the surrounding hinterlands. This notion indirectly leads the households living in the farthest hinterlands to adopt a new coping mechanism, i.e. enhancing their social proximity in a way that compensates the opportunity lost as a result of physical distance. Keywords: Spatial proximity, Propensity score matching, Towns, Livelihood

Rivalry, antagonism and war in the nation- and state-building process: the H factor in the relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia

The tragic outbreak of violence between Eritrea and Ethiopia in 1998 and the subsequent dramatic conflict that has locked the two states until 2000, and still hoover over the economic and social development of the Horn of Africa, has taken political analysts, specialists of the region and the media aback. Therefore the most recurrent words used to explain those feelings have been shock, dismay, delusion betrayal etc. However, this highly unexpected and to a certain extent surprising development has not generated a similarly strong desire for a deep understanding of its generating factor. On the opposite the media and to a certain extent even many political analysts have often opted for a rather superficial explanation dismissing this conflict with few contemptuous statements focusing on the personal rivalry between the leaders of the two nations or on the allegedly proactive and over-assertive policy of the young Eritrean state. These kind of judgements could be best epitomised by the catching image of \u201ctwo bald men fighting over a comb\u201d used by the Financial Times to describe the conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia.1 In the intentions of the journalist this statement emphasised the futility of the conflict and, indirectly pointed out at the destitute economy of both countries. It is no coincidence that both Eritrea's and Ethiopia's leaders reacted angrily at this definition and called for a more complex and analytical understanding of the conflict, though offering different and, predictably contrasting interpretations. Without undermining the relevance of contemporary political issues the recent conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia ought to be analysed also through different lenses and to this analysis chronological depths is a key prerequisite. It is my strong belief that historians can provide additional elements for an understanding of this conflict by locating it within the perspective of the long dur\ue9e of historical developments. To this end it is crucial to address issues such as land, regional systems of power, the impact of colonialism, the formation and role of political elites and the paths toward state and nation-building. It is only within this specific, yet very complex framework, that historians can contribute in shedding some light on this complex and painful event. To a deeper and satisfactory understanding of the specific and immediate causes of the conflict the access to official and private documents remain a prerequisite which, unfortunately, will be possible to satisfy only after many years. My paper is an attempt to contribute toward this analysis from a historical perspective. I will argue that, though the 1998 \u2013 2000 conflict bears elements of specificity related to contemporary regional and international politics, important elements of understanding can be retrieved through a broader retrospective gaze focusing on the way historical elements of rivalry and antagonism have sedimented through time shaping the nature of relationship between Eritrea and Ethiopia. The main point that I will try to make is that those elements of rivalry and even antagonism should not be interpreted in mechanist terms as necessary causes for the recent conflict but rather as successive layers of tension and uneasiness that within given geopolitical balances (or unbalances) of powers could also represent the platform for conflicting relations