Long-lead predictions of eastern United States hot days from Pacific sea surface temperatures

Seasonal forecast models exhibit only modest skill in predicting extreme summer temperatures across the eastern US. Anomalies in sea surface temperature and monthly-resolution rainfall have, however, been correlated with hot days in the US, and seasonal persistence of these anomalies suggests potential for long-lead predictability. Here we present a clustering analysis of daily maximum summer temperatures from US weather stations between 1982–2015 and identify a region spanning most of the eastern US where hot weather events tend to occur synchronously. We then show that an evolving pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies, termed the Pacific Extreme Pattern, provides for skillful prediction of hot weather within this region as much as 50 days in advance. Skill is demonstrated using out-of-sample predictions between 1950 and 2015. Rainfall deficits over the eastern US are also associated with the occurrence of the Pacific Extreme Pattern and are demonstrated to offer complementary skill in predicting high temperatures. The Pacific Extreme Pattern appears to provide a cohesive framework for improving seasonal prediction of summer precipitation deficits and high temperature anomalies in the eastern US.Earth and Planetary Science

A decade of weather extremes

The ostensibly large number of recent extreme weather events has triggered intensive discussions, both in- and outside the scientific community, on whether they are related to global warming. Here, we review the evidence and argue that for some types of extreme - notably heatwaves, but also precipitation extremes - there is now strong evidence linking specific events or an increase in their numbers to the human influence on climate. For other types of extreme, such as storms, the available evidence is less conclusive, but based on observed trends and basic physical concepts it is nevertheless plausible to expect an increase

Reversal of proteinuric renal disease and the emerging role of endothelin

Proteinuria is a major long-term clinical consequence of diabetes and hypertension, conditions that lead to progressive loss of functional renal tissue and, ultimately, end-stage renal disease. Proteinuria is also a strong predictor of cardiovascular events. Convincing preclinical and clinical evidence exists that proteinuria and the underlying glomerulosclerosis are reversible processes. This Review outlines the mechanisms involved in the development of glomerulosclerosis-particularly those responsible for podocyte injury-with an emphasis on the potential capacity of endothelin receptor blockade to reverse this process. There is strong evidence that endothelin-1, a peptide with growth-promoting and vasoconstricting properties, has a central role in the pathogenesis of proteinuria and glomerulosclerosis, which is mediated via activation of the ET(A) receptor. Several antiproteinuric drugs, including angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor antagonists, statins and certain calcium channel blockers, inhibit the formation of endothelin-1. Preclinical studies have demonstrated that endothelin receptor antagonists can reverse proteinuric renal disease and glomerulosclerosis, and preliminary studies in humans with renal disease have shown that these drugs have remarkable antiproteinuric effects that are additive to those of standard antiproteinuric therapy. Additional clinical studies are needed