785 research outputs found
Network-wide assessment of 4D trajectory adjustments using an agent-based model
This paper presents results from the SESAR ER3 Domino project. It focuses on an ECAC-wide assessment of two 4D-adjustment mechanisms, implemented separately and conjointly. These reflect flight behaviour en-route and at-gate, optimising given (cost) objective functions. New metrics designed to capture network effects are used to analyse the results of a microscopic, agent based model. The results show that some implementations of the mechanisms allow the protection of the network from ‘domino’ effects. Airlines focusing on costs may trigger additional side-effects on passengers, displaying, in some instances, clear trade-offs between passenger- and flight-centric metrics
Pilot3 crew multi-criteria decision support tool estimating performance indicators and uncertainty
When a flight’s operational conditions change (e.g., an updated weather forecast), various alternative trajectories may be computed. These usually require trade-offs between expected fuel burn and delay. The pilot, or the dispatcher, considers these expected values to decide how to operate the flight. This approach has two main challenges. Firstly, it requires the translation of arrival delay into parameters that are relevant for the airline (on-time performance and cost of delay). Secondly, uncertainties in the system need to be estimated (e.g., holding at arrival). These estimations rely on airline staff expertise. Pilot3 sets out to overcome these issues by developing a new, multi-criteria decision-support tool, which incorporates explicit estimators for performance indicators and ATM operational parameters. These estimators will be developed incrementally, from simple heuristics to advanced machine-learning models, building on previous experience
Vista D1.2 - Final Project Results Report
Vista assesses primary trade-offs in ATM between key performance areas in the current and future timeframes, including how they are affected by SESAR and non-SESAR factors. The project has examined the effects of market forces (e.g. fuel prices, economic development), technologies and regulatory factors on European performance in ATM, through the evaluation of stakeholder and environmental indicators. The approaches selected for the various layers in the model are described, and the corresponding results of each are presented. The strategic layer implements an agent-based economic model and a schedule mapper to generate demand and capacity for the different stakeholders, flight schedules and passenger flows – it feeds the pre-tactical layer. The pre-tactical layer transforms the output of the strategic layer into individual flight plans, passenger itineraries and ATFM regulations delay – it feeds the tactical layer. The tactical layer runs the day of operations, tracking flights and passengers and reacting to the tactical situation in the system. Trade-offs have been assessed and visualised within and between periods, and between stakeholders. The Final Project Results Report provides a summary of the entire project, from objectives to main conclusions. Lessons learned and recommendations for future research and development activities are reported along with a self-assessment of the project’s maturity
Domino D6.2 - Stakeholders' consultation on system and investigative case studies
For completeness, this deliverable presents the consultation questionnaire and a summary of the consultation results on the system architecture and the investigative case studies to be modelled in Domino: the feedback has already been incorporated into deliverables D3.1 (Architecture definition) and D3.2 (Investigative case studies description)
ComplexityCosts D4.5 - Final Technical Report
Using traffic and passenger itinerary data for the European network, the cost resilience of four mechanisms, with phased stakeholder uptake, has been assessed under explicit, local and disperse disturbance: industrial action and weather. A novel cost resilience metric has demonstrated logical properties and captured cost impacts sensitively. Of these mechanisms, only A-CDM has been cost-benefit analysed in SESAR, yet the other three each demonstrate particular utility. Flight-, passenger- and cost-centric metrics are deployed to assess the mechanisms, with fully costed results presented, based on extensive industry consultation. Initial work on assessing mechanism payback periods has begun
What cost reslience?
Air traffic management research lacks a framework for modelling the cost of resilience during disturbance. There is no universally accepted metric for cost resilience. The design of such a framework is presented and the modelling to date is reported. The framework allows performance assessment as a function of differential stakeholder uptake of strategic mechanisms designed to mitigate disturbance. Advanced metrics, cost- and non-cost-based, disaggregated by stakeholder subtypes, will be deployed. A new cost resilience metric is proposed
Quantifying resilience in ATM - contrasting the impacts of four mechanisms during disturbance
Using traffic and passenger itinerary data for the European network, the cost resilience of four mechanisms, with phased stakeholder uptake, has been assessed under explicit, local and disperse disturbance: industrial action and weather. A novel cost resilience metric has demonstrated logical properties and captured cost impacts sensitively. Of these mechanisms, only A-CDM has been cost-benefit analysed in SESAR, yet the other three each demonstrate particular utility. Flight-, passenger- and cost-centric metrics are deployed to assess the mechanisms, with fully costed results presented, based on extensive industry consultation. Initial work on assessing mechanism payback periods has begun
Domino D6.3 - Workshop results summary
This deliverable summarises two workshop activities carried out with stakeholders to provide feedback on the modelling, metrics and first results of Domino. How the feedback will be used in the project is highlighted
Domino D1.2 - Final Project Results Report
This deliverable summarises the Domino project in terms of objectives, work performed, results obtained, and links with the SESAR programme. It recalls the initial objectives of the project, the study of a methodology to capture architectural changes and their systemic effects. The project defined new metrics able to measure these effects, developed a platform (Mercury) able to simulate changes of architecture and complex network effects, and devised a methodology to systemically study architectural changes, applying it to three examples of mechanisms. This deliverable reports the main findings of the project and shows examples of results obtained with the model. This deliverable explains the links of the project with the rest of the SESAR programme, its maturity and proposes some lines of research for the future
A multi-layer model for long-term KPI aligment forecast
This article presents a new holistic model for the air traffic management system built by the Vista project. The model studies the alignment and trade-offs of key performance indicators in the 2035 and 2050 horizons. It is based on three layers modelling the strategic, pre-tactical and tactical phases of ATM. It heavily features multi-agents, is highly data-driven, and includes highly microscopic models. It is runnable as a ‘what-if’ tool and has been applied to different scenarios, including long-term forecasts for 2035 and 2050. The results obtained with the model so far show clear trends, including surging emissions, an important reduction in delay uncertainty, and increases of flight plan buffer
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