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A multi-layer model for long-term KPI aligment forecast

Abstract

This article presents a new holistic model for the air traffic management system built by the Vista project. The model studies the alignment and trade-offs of key performance indicators in the 2035 and 2050 horizons. It is based on three layers modelling the strategic, pre-tactical and tactical phases of ATM. It heavily features multi-agents, is highly data-driven, and includes highly microscopic models. It is runnable as a ‘what-if’ tool and has been applied to different scenarios, including long-term forecasts for 2035 and 2050. The results obtained with the model so far show clear trends, including surging emissions, an important reduction in delay uncertainty, and increases of flight plan buffer

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