The demographic components of population aging in China

Past trends in fertility and mortality in China have led to an age composition that will age rapidly in the coming decades. In this paper we examine measures of population aging in China from 1953 to 1982, and then project population aging to the year 2050 using a cohort-components methodology. The projected measures of population aging that result from these forecasts are then decomposed into the relative contributions that are made to these changes by past, present, and future trends in fertility and mortality. Results indicate that China's population will age at an unprecedented rate over the next 70 years, both in terms of the absolute size of the elderly population and their proportion of the total population. At least 50 percent of the projected increase in population aging in China between 1980 and 2050 will be a product of the momentum for aging that is already built into the present age structure and vital rates. However, prospective trends in the measures of population aging become increasingly more sensitive to varying assumptions about fertility and mortality with time, and as older age groups are considered. This analysis provides the demographic basis for evaluating the possible effects of population aging on health care, social security, and other social and economic issues.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/42989/1/10823_2004_Article_BF00120576.pd

The Reproductive Revolution

Este texto fue publicado en 2009 por The Sociological Review. Rogamos que, a efectos de divulgación, docencia y cita bibliográfica se acuda a la publicación impresa (u online de la propia revista) y la cita sea esta: MacInnes, J., Pérez Díaz, J. (2009), "The reproductive revolution" The Sociological Review 57 (2): 262-284. Su versión html puede encontrarse en esta dirección:http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/fulltext/122368561/HTMLSTART Quienes estén interesados en ampliar la información sobre nuestra Teoría de la Revolución Reproductiva pueden visitar la página web siguiente: http://www.ieg.csic.es/jperez/pags/RRweb/RRweb.htm También encontrarán en este mismo repositorio otra publicación con unaexposición en castellano de las mismas ideas y publicada en la REIS bajo el título “La tercera revolución de la modernidad: la reproductiva”.We suggest that a third revolution alongside the better known economic and political ones has been vital to the rise of modernity: the reproductive revolution, comprising a historically unrepeatable shift in the efficiency of human reproduction which for the first time brought demographic security.As well as highlighting the contribution of demographic change to the rise of modernity and addressing the limitations of orthodox theories of the demographic transition, the concept of the reproductive revolution offers a better way to integrate sociology and demography. The former has tended to pay insufficient heed to sexual reproduction, individual mortality and the generational replacement of population, while the latter has undervalued its own distinctive theoretical contribution, portraying demographic change as the effect of causes lying elsewhere. We outline a theory of the reproductive revolution, review some relevant supporting empirical evidence and briefly discuss its implications both for demographic transition theory itself, and for a range of key social changes that we suggest it made possible: the decline of patriarchy and feminisation of the public sphere, the deregulation and privatisation of sexuality, family change, the rise of identity, ‘low’ fertility and ‘population ageing’.Peer reviewe