Geographical variation in the risk of H7N9 human infections in China: Implications for risk-based surveillance

The influenza A (H7N9) subtype remains a public health problem in China affecting individuals in contact with live poultry, particularly at live bird markets. Despite enhanced surveillance and biosecurity at LBMs H7N9 viruses are now more widespread in China. This study aims to quantify the temporal relationship between poultry surveillance results and the onset of human H7N9 infections during 2013–2017 and to estimate risk factors associated with geographical risk of H7N9 human infections in counties in Southeast China. Our results suggest that poultry surveillance data can potentially be used as early warning indicators for human H7N9 notifications. Furthermore, we found that human H7N9 incidence at county-level was significantly associated with the presence of wholesale LBMs, the density of retail LBMs, the presence of poultry virological positives, poultry movements from high-risk areas, as well as chicken population density and human population density. The results of this study can influence the current AI H7N9 control program by supporting the integration of poultry surveillance data with human H7N9 notifications as an early warning of the timing and areas at risk for human infection. The findings also highlight areas in China where monitoring of poultry movement and poultry infections could be prioritized

Predicted short and long-term impact of deworming and water, hygiene, and sanitation on transmission of soil-transmitted helminths

Background: Regular preventive chemotherapy (PCT) targeting high-risk populations is an effective way to control STH in the short term, but sustainable long-term STH control is expected to require improved access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). However, experimental studies have not been able to conclusively demonstrate the benefit of WASH in preventing STH (re-)infections. We investigated the impact of WASH on STH infections during and after PCT using mathematical modelling. Methods and findings: We use the individual-based transmission model WORMSIM to predict the short and long-term impact of WASH on STH transmission in contexts with and without PCT. We distinguish two WASH modalities: sanitation, which reduces individuals’ contributions to environmental contamination; and hygiene, which reduces individuals’ exposure to infection. We simulate the impact of varying levels of uptake and effectiveness of each WASH modality, as well as their combined impact. Clearly, sanitation and hygiene interventions have little observable short-term impact on STH infections levels in the context of PCT. However, in the long term, both are pivotal to sustain control or eliminate infection levels after scaling down or stopping PCT. The impact of hygiene is determined more by the effectiveness of the intervention than its overall uptake, whereas the impact of sanitation depends more directly on the product of uptake and the effectiveness. Interpretation: The impact of WASH interventions on STH transmission highly depends on the worm species, WASH modality, and uptake and effectiveness of the intervention. Also, the impact of WASH is difficult to measure in the context of ongoing PCT programmes. Still, we show a clear added benefit of WASH to sustain the gains made by PCT in the long term, such that PCT may be scaled down or even stopped altogether. To safely stop or scale down PCT, policy for WASH and PCT should be integrated

A cluster-randomised controlled trial comparing school and community-based deworming for soil transmitted helminth control in school-age children: The CoDe-STH trial protocol

Background: Current guidelines and targets for soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control focus on school-based deworming for school-age children, given the high risk of associated morbidity in this age group. However, expanding deworming to all age groups may achieve improved STH control among both the community in general and school-age children, by reducing their risk of reinfection. This trial aims to compare school-based targeted deworming with community-wide mass deworming in terms of impact on STH infections among school-age children. Methods: The CoDe-STH (Community Deworming against STH) trial is a cluster-randomised controlled trial (RCT) in 64 primary schools in Dak Lak province, Vietnam. The control arm will receive one round of school-based targeted deworming with albendazole, while in the intervention arm, community-wide mass deworming with albendazole will be implemented alongside school-based deworming. Prevalence of STH infections will be measured in school-age children at baseline and 12 months following deworming. The primary outcome is hookworm prevalence in school-age children at 12 months, by quantitative PCR. Analysis will be intention-to-treat, with outcomes compared between study arms using generalised linear and non-linear mixed models. Additionally, cost-effectiveness of mass and targeted deworming will be calculated and compared, and focus group discussions and interviews will be used to assess acceptability and feasibility of deworming approaches. Individual based stochastic models will be used to predict the impact of mass and targeted deworming strategies beyond the RCT timeframe to assess the likelihood of parasite population 'bounce-back' if deworming is ceased due to low STH prevalence. Discussion: The first large-scale trial comparing mass and targeted deworming for STH control in South East Asia will provide key information for policy makers regarding the optimal design of STH control programs. Trial registration: ACTRN12619000309189

Chi cura gli anziani non autosufficienti? Famiglia, assistenza privata, e rete dei servizi per anziani in Emilia-Romagna

Earth observation (EO) is the use of remote sensing and in situ observations to gather data on the environment. It finds increasing application in the study of environmentally modulated neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Obtaining and assuring the quality of the relevant spatially and temporally indexed EO data remain challenges. Our objective was to review the Earth observation products currently used in studies of NTD epidemiology and to discuss fundamental issues relating to spatial data quality (SDQ), which limit the utilization of EO and pose challenges for its more effective use. We searched Web of Science and PubMed for studies related to EO and echinococossis, leptospirosis, schistosomiasis, and soil-transmitted helminth infections. Relevant literature was also identified from the bibliographies of those papers. We found that extensive use is made of EO products in the study of NTD epidemiology; however, the quality of these products is usually given little explicit attention. We review key issues in SDQ concerning spatial and temporal scale, uncertainty, and the documentation and use of quality information. We give examples of how these issues may interact with uncertainty in NTD data to affect the output of an epidemiological analysis. We conclude that researchers should give careful attention to SDQ when designing NTD spatial-epidemiological studies. This should be used to inform uncertainty analysis in the epidemiological study. SDQ should be documented and made available to other researchers

Risk stratification for surgical site infections in Australia: evaluation of the NNIS risk index

This study evaluated the US National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance (NNIS) risk index (RI) in Australia for different surgical site infection (SSI) outcomes (overall, in-hospital, post-discharge, deep-incisional and superficial-incisional infection) and investigated local risk factors for SSI. A SSI surveillance dataset containing 43 611 records for 13 common surgical procedures, conducted in 23 hospitals between February 2001 and June 2005, was used for the analysis. The NNIS RI was evaluated against the observed SSI data using diagnostic test evaluation statistics (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value). Sensitivity was low for all SSI outcomes (ranging from 0.47 to 0.69 and from 0.09 to 0.20 using RI thresholds of 1 and 2 respectively), while specificity varied depending on the RI threshold (0.55 and 0.93 with thresholds of 1 and 2 respectively). Mixed-effects logistic regression models were developed for the five SSI outcomes using a range of available potential risk factors. American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) physical status score &gt;2, duration of surgery, absence of antibiotic prophylaxis and type of surgical procedure were significant risk factors for one or more SSI outcomes, and risk factors varied for different SSI outcomes. The discriminatory ability of the NNIS RI was insufficient for its use as an accurate risk stratification tool for SSI surveillance in Australia and its sensitivity was too low for it to be appropriately used as a prognostic indicator.<br/

Seasonality and community interventions in a mathematical model of Clostridium difficile transmission

Background: Clostridium difficile infection (CDI)is the leading cause of antibiotic-associated diarrhoea with peak incidence in late winter or early autumn. Although CDI is commonly associated with hospitals, community transmission is important. Aim: To explore potential drivers of CDI seasonality and the effect of community-based interventions to reduce transmission. Methods: A mechanistic compartmental model of C. difficile transmission in a hospital and surrounding community was used to determine the effect of reducing transmission or antibiotic prescriptions in these settings. The model was extended to allow for seasonal antibiotic prescriptions and seasonal transmission. Findings: Modelling antibiotic seasonality reproduced the seasonality of CDI, including approximate magnitude (13.9 15.1% above annual mean)and timing of peaks (0.71.0 months after peak antibiotics). Halving seasonal excess prescriptions reduced the incidence of CDI by 618%. Seasonal transmission produced larger seasonal peaks in the prevalence of community colonization (14.8 22.1% above mean)than seasonal antibiotic prescriptions (0.2 1.7% above mean). Reducing transmission from symptomatic or hospitalized patients had little effect on community-acquired CDI, but reducing transmission in the community by 7% or transmission from infants by 30% eliminated the pathogen. Reducing antibiotic prescription rates led to approximately proportional reductions in infections, but limited reductions in the prevalence of colonization. Conclusion: Seasonal variation in antibiotic prescription rates can account for the observed magnitude and timing of C. difficile seasonality. Even complete prevention of transmission from hospitalized patients or symptomatic patients cannot eliminate the pathogen, but interventions to reduce transmission from community residents or infants could have a large impact on both hospital- and community-acquired infections.This work was supported by National Health and Medical Research Council to A.C.A.C. (# 1058878 ) and M.K. ( GNT1145997 ), and an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship to A.M. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Appendix AScopu