Two Economists’ Musings on the Stability of Locus of Control

Empirical studies of the role of non-cognitive skills in driving economic behavior often rely heavily on the assumption that these skills are stable over the relevant time frame. We analyze the change in a specific non-cognitive skill, i.e. locus of control, in order to directly assess the validity of this assumption. We find that short- and medium-run changes in locus of control are rather modest on average, are concentrated among the young or very old, do not appear to be related to the demographic, labor market, and health events that individuals experience, and are unlikely to be economically meaningful. Still, there is no evidence that locus of control is truly time-invariant implying that the use of lagged measures results in an errors-in-variables problem that could downward bias the estimated wage return to locus of control by as much as 50 percent. Those researchers wishing to analyze the economic consequences of non-cognitive skills should consider (i) restricting their analysis to the working-age population for whom there is little evidence of systematic change in skill levels and (ii) accounting for error in the skill measures they employ.non-cognitive skills, locus of control, stability, measurement error, endogeneity, life events

Evidence on the Long Shadow of Poor Mental Health across Three Generations

Individuals suffering from mental health problems are often severely limited in their social and economic functioning. Mental health problems can develop early in life, are frequently chronic in nature, and have an established hereditary component. The extent to which mental illness runs in families could therefore help explain the widely discussed intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic disadvantage. Using data from three generations contained in the 1970 British Cohort Study, we estimate the intergenerational correlation of mental health between mothers, their children, and their grandchildren. We find that the intergenerational correlation in mental health is about 0.2, and that the probability of feeling depressed is 63 percent higher for children whose mothers reported the same symptom 20 years earlier. Moreover, grandmother and grandchild mental health are strongly correlated, but this relationship appears to work fully through the mental health of the parent. Using grandmother mental health as an instrument for maternal mental health in a model of grandchild mental health confirms the strong intergenerational correlation. We also find that maternal and own mental health are strong predictors of adulthood socioeconomic outcomes. Even after controlling for parental socioeconomic status, own educational attainment, and own mental health (captured in childhood and adulthood), our results suggest that a one standard deviation reduction in maternal mental health reduces household income for their adult offspring by around 2 percent.intergenerational transmission, mobility, mental health, economic outcomes

State of research

© The Author(s) 2019. This chapter sets the context for the climate and energy scenario development. The first part summarizes the scientific status quo of climate change research and explains how the global climate has changed over recent decades and the likely outcomes if we continue with business as usual and fail to drastically reduce GHG emissions. The second part reviews the development of the global energy markets during the past decade. Trends in the power-, transport- and heating sector in regard to technologies and investments are provided for the year of writing (2018). The developments put the energy scenarios presented in the following chapters into a global context

Assessing the significance of changes in ENSO amplitude using variance metrics

© Copyright 2014 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or [email protected] variance of time series records relating to ENSO, such as the interannual anomalies or bandpass filtered components of equatorial Pacific SST indices, provides one approach to quantifying changes in ENSO amplitude. Robust assessment of the significance of changes in amplitude defined in this way is, however, hampered by uncertainty regarding the sampling distributions of such variance metrics within an unforced climate system. The present study shows that the empirical constraints on these sampling distributions provided by a range of unforced CGCM simulations are consistent with the expected parametric form, suggesting that standard parametric testing strategies can be robustly applied, even in the case of the nonlinear ENSO system. Under such an approach, the sampling distribution of unforced relative changes in variance may be constrained by a single parameter τd: the value of which depends on the choice of method used to extract the ENSO-related component of time series variability. In the case of interannual anomaly records, the value of τd is also substantially dependent on the overall spectral properties of the climatic variable under consideration. In contrast, the τd value for bandpass filtered records can be conservatively constrained from the lower edge of the filter passband, allowing for the direct but robust assessment of the significance of relative changes in ENSO amplitude, regardless of the climatic variable under consideration. Example applications of this approach confirm marginally significant F-test p values for multidecadal changes in central Pacific instrumental SST variance and highly significant ones for centennial changes in central Pacific coral δ18O variance. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC