MELD score measured day 10 after orthotopic liver transplantation predicts death and re-transplantation within the first year

OBJECTIVE: The impact of early allograft dysfunction on the outcome after liver transplantation is yet to be established. We explored the independent predictive value of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score measured in the post-transplant period on the risk of mortality or re-transplantation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective cohort study on adults undergoing orthotopic deceased donor liver transplantation from 2004 to 2014. The MELD score was determined prior to transplantation and daily until 21 days after. The risk of mortality or re-transplantation within the first year was assessed according to quartiles of MELD using unadjusted and adjusted stepwise Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: We included 374 consecutive liver transplant recipients of whom 60 patients died or were re-transplanted. The pre-transplant MELD score was comparable between patients with good and poor outcome, but from day 1 the MELD score significantly diversified and was higher in the poor outcome group (MELD score quartile 4 versus quartile 1-3 at day 10: HR 5.1, 95% CI: 2.8-9.0). This association remained after adjustment for non-identical blood type, autoimmune liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma (adjusted HR 5.3, 95% CI: 2.9-9.5 for MELD scores at day 10). The post-transplant MELD score was not associated with pre-transplant MELD score or the Eurotransplant donor risk index. CONCLUSION: Early determination of the MELD score as an indicator of early allograft dysfunction after liver transplantation was a strong independent predictor of mortality or re-transplantation and was not influenced by the quality of the donor, or preoperative recipient risk factors

Vascular invasion and survival after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: a study from the European Liver Transplant Registry

Background: Studies suggest that vascular invasion may be a superior prognostic marker compared with traditional selection criteria, e.g. Milan criteria. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of micro and macrovascular invasion in a large database material. Methods: Patients liver transplanted for HCC and cirrhosis registered in the European Liver Transplant Registry (ELTR) database were included. The association between the Milan criteria, Up-to-seven criteria and vascular invasion with overall survival and HCC specific survival was investigated with univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Results: Of 23,124 patients transplanted for HCC, 9324 had cirrhosis and data on explant pathology. Patients without microvascular invasion, regardless of number and size of HCC nodules, had a five-year overall survival of 73.2%, which was comparable with patients inside both Milan and Up-to-seven criteria. Patients without macrovascular invasion had an only marginally reduced survival of 70.7% after five years. Patients outside both Milan and Up-to-seven criteria without micro or macrovascular invasion still had a five-year overall survival of 65.8%. Conclusion: Vascular invasion as a prognostic indicator remains superior to criteria based on size and number of nodules. With continuously improving imaging studies, microvascular invasion may be used for selecting patients for transplantation in the future

Classification of death causes after transplantation (CLASS):Evaluation of methodology and initial results

Correct classification of death causes is an important component of transplant trials.We aimed to develop and validate a system to classify causes of death in hematopoietic stem cell (HSCT) and solid organ (SOT) transplant recipients.Case record forms (CRF) of fatal cases were completed, including investigator-designated cause of death. Deaths occurring in 2010 to 2013 were used for derivation; and were validated by deaths occurring in 2013 to 2015. Underlying cause of death (referred to as recorded underlying cause) was determined through a central adjudication process involving 2 external reviewers, and subsequently compared with the Danish National Death Cause Registry.Three hundred eighty-eight recipients died 2010 to 2015 (196 [51%] SOT and 192 [49%] HSCT). The main recorded underlying causes of death among SOT and HSCT were classified as cancer (20%, 48%), graft rejection/failure/graft-versus-host-disease (35%, 28%), and infections (20%, 11%). Kappa between the investigator-designated and the recorded underlying cause of death was 0.74 (95% CI 0.69-0.80) in derivation and comparable in the validation cohort. Death causes were concordant with the Danish National Death Cause Registry in 37.2% (95% CI 31.5-42.9) and 38.4% (95% CI 28.8-48.0) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively.We developed and validated a method to systematically and reliably classify the underlying cause of death among transplant recipients. There was a high degree of discordance between this classification and that in the Danish National Death Cause Registry

Recurrence of primary sclerosing cholangitis after liver transplantation – analysing the European Liver Transplant Registry and beyond

Liver transplantation for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) can be complicated by recurrence of PSC (rPSC). This may compromise graft survival but the effect on patient survival is less clear. We investigated the effect of post-transplant rPSC on graft and patient survival in a large European cohort. Registry data from the European Liver Transplant Registry regarding all first transplants for PSC between 1980 and 2015 were supplemented with detailed data on rPSC from 48 out of 138 contributing transplant centres, involving 1,549 patients. Bayesian proportional hazards models were used to investigate the impact of rPSC and other covariates on patient and graft survival. Recurrence of PSC was diagnosed in 259 patients (16.7%) after a median follow-up of 5.0 years (quantile 2.5%-97.5%: 0.4–18.5), with a significant negative impact on both graft (HR 6.7; 95% CI 4.9–9.1) and patient survival (HR 2.3; 95% CI 1.5–3.3). Patients with rPSC underwent significantly more re-transplants than those without rPSC (OR 3.6, 95% CI 2.7–4.8). PSC recurrence has a negative impact on both graft and patient survival, independent of transplant-related covariates. Recurrence of PSC leads to higher number of re-transplantations and a 33% decrease in 10-year graft survival