Opportunity costs and offsets acceptance in FI-REDD model

In previous studies, we have proposed financial instruments supporting REDD (FI-REDD). Within a microeconomic framework we modeled interactions between an electricity producer (EP), electricity consumer (EC), and forest owner (FO). FI-REDD allows for optional consumption of emission offsets by the EP (any amount up to the initially contracted volume is allowed), and includes a benefit-sharing mechanism between the EP and FO as it regards unused offsets. The modeling results indicated that FI-REDD might help avoid bankruptcy of CO2-intensive producers at high levels of CO2 prices. We demonstrated the impact of benefit-sharing and risk preferences on the contracted REDD offsets quantity. Here, we further develop the FI-REDD model by introducing two modifications. Firstly, we add opportunity cost of the forest owner, i.e. forest value alternative to REDD. This change leads to a realistic risk-adjusted supply curves for REDD, which are generated by the indifference (fair) pricing model and calculated for all possible benefit-sharing ratios. Secondly, we introduce an uncertainty associated with acceptance (fungibility) of REDD offsets in the second stage of the model. Modeling results demonstrate in a quantitative way the impact of fungibility uncertainty and positive effects of the benefit-sharing mechanism. An optimal value of the benefit-sharing ratio can be found that guarantees contracting the highest amounts of offsets at the low equilibrium price. This qualitative feature of the benefit-sharing mechanism is robust with respect to the uncertainty parameters in the model. We also undertake an in-depth analysis of decision making of the electricity producer using 3D visualization tools

REDD-based Offsets: Benefit Sharing and Risks

In this study we apply systems analysis methods to modeling financial instruments supporting the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) program. We consider a risk-aware forest owner and an electricity producer evaluating the REDD-based offsets with benefit-sharing mechanism under uncertain CO2 prices. For a range of CO2 prices and respective risks perceived by the forest owner (seller) and electricity producer (buyer), we apply a model of fair (indifference) pricing. The decision-making process under uncertainty is formalized in the spirit of Howard Raiffa’s “Decision analysis” (1968). Parties’ risk preferences are reflected by exponential utility functions. The potentially contracted amounts of REDD offsets are analyzed under various risk preferences and for different benefit sharing opportunities and price levels. Our results show that a risk-averse attitude considerably increases the contracted amounts of REDD offsets (compared to risk-neutral case) and, therefore, creates a higher potential for REDD implementation. We demonstrate a possibility of situations, when parties could agree on a certain range of REDD contracts, for example, smaller amounts of REDD offsets are traded for higher prices, and larger amounts for lower prices, but contracting a moderate amount at a moderate price is impossible. Higher benefit-sharing ratios can also increase contracted amounts even in the case of risk-taking electricity producer. Our modeling results highlight two ways to promote higher REDD participation: (i) increasing risk aversion of the energy producers, and (ii) implementing the mechanism of benefit/risk sharing between REDD consumer and supplier

Nonlinear dispersion of stationary waves in collisionless plasmas

A nonlinear dispersion of a general stationary wave in collisionless plasma is obtained in a non-differential form from a single-particle oscillation-center Hamiltonian. For electrostatic oscillations in nonmagnetized plasma, considered as a paradigmatic example, the linear dielectric function is generalized, and the trapped particle contribution to the wave frequency shift $\Delta\omega$ is found analytically as a function of the wave amplitude $a$. Smooth distributions yield $\Delta\omega\sim a^{1/2}$, as usual. However, beam-like distributions of trapped electrons result in different power laws, or even a logarithmic nonlinearity, which are derived as asymptotic limits of the same dispersion relation

Bifurcation analysis of a normal form for excitable media: Are stable dynamical alternans on a ring possible?

We present a bifurcation analysis of a normal form for travelling waves in one-dimensional excitable media. The normal form which has been recently proposed on phenomenological grounds is given in form of a differential delay equation. The normal form exhibits a symmetry preserving Hopf bifurcation which may coalesce with a saddle-node in a Bogdanov-Takens point, and a symmetry breaking spatially inhomogeneous pitchfork bifurcation. We study here the Hopf bifurcation for the propagation of a single pulse in a ring by means of a center manifold reduction, and for a wave train by means of a multiscale analysis leading to a real Ginzburg-Landau equation as the corresponding amplitude equation. Both, the center manifold reduction and the multiscale analysis show that the Hopf bifurcation is always subcritical independent of the parameters. This may have links to cardiac alternans which have so far been believed to be stable oscillations emanating from a supercritical bifurcation. We discuss the implications for cardiac alternans and revisit the instability in some excitable media where the oscillations had been believed to be stable. In particular, we show that our condition for the onset of the Hopf bifurcation coincides with the well known restitution condition for cardiac alternans.Comment: to be published in Chao

Adiabatic nonlinear waves with trapped particles: II. Wave dispersion

A general nonlinear dispersion relation is derived in a nondifferential form for an adiabatic sinusoidal Langmuir wave in collisionless plasma, allowing for an arbitrary distribution of trapped electrons. The linear dielectric function is generalized, and the nonlinear kinetic frequency shift $\omega_{\rm NL}$ is found analytically as a function of the wave amplitude $a$. Smooth distributions yield $\omega_{\rm NL} \propto \sqrt{a}$, as usual. However, beam-like distributions of trapped electrons result in different power laws, or even a logarithmic nonlinearity, which are derived as asymptotic limits of the same dispersion relation. Such beams are formed whenever the phase velocity changes, because the trapped distribution is in autoresonance and thus evolves differently from the passing distribution. Hence, even adiabatic $\omega_{\rm NL}(a)$ is generally nonlocal.Comment: submitted together with Papers I and II

Intermittency transition to generalized synchronization in coupled time-delay systems

In this paper, we report the nature of transition to generalized synchronization (GS) in a system of two coupled scalar piecewise linear time-delay systems using the auxiliary system approach. We demonstrate that the transition to GS occurs via on-off intermittency route and also it exhibits characteristically distinct behaviors for different coupling configurations. In particular, the intermittency transition occurs in a rather broad range of coupling strength for error feedback coupling configuration and in a narrow range of coupling strength for direct feedback coupling configuration. It is also shown that the intermittent dynamics displays periodic bursts of period equal to the delay time of the response system in the former case, while they occur in random time intervals of finite duration in the latter case. The robustness of these transitions with system parameters and delay times has also been studied for both linear and nonlinear coupling configurations. The results are corroborated analytically by suitable stability conditions for asymptotically stable synchronized states and numerically by the probability of synchronization and by the transition of \emph{sub}Lyapunov exponents of the coupled time-delay systems. We have also indicated the reason behind these distinct transitions by referring to unstable periodic orbit theory of intermittency synchronization in low-dimensional systems.Comment: Accepted for publication in Physical Review

Demand Functions in Dynamic Games

The paper is devoted to construction of solutions in dynamic bimatrix games. In the model, the payoffs are presented by discounted integrals on the infinite time horizon. The dynamics of the game is subject to the system of the A.N. Kolmogorov type differential equations. The problem of construction of equilibrium trajectories is analyzed in the framework of the minimax approach proposed by N.N. Krasovskii and A.I. Subbotin in the differential games theory. The concept of dynamic Nash equilibrium developed by A.F. Kleimenov is applied to design the structure of the game solution. For obtaining constructive control strategies of players, the maximum principle of L.S. Pontryagin is used in conjunction with the generalized method of characteristics for Hamilton-Jacobi equations. The impact of the discount index is indicated for equilibrium strategies of the game and demand functions in the dynamic bimatrix game are constructed. © 2018The paper is supported by Russin Foundation for Basic Reseaarch (Project No. 18-01-0264a)

Transition from anticipatory to lag synchronization via complete synchronization in time-delay systems

The existence of anticipatory, complete and lag synchronization in a single system having two different time-delays, that is feedback delay $\tau_1$ and coupling delay $\tau_2$, is identified. The transition from anticipatory to complete synchronization and from complete to lag synchronization as a function of coupling delay $\tau_2$ with suitable stability condition is discussed. The existence of anticipatory and lag synchronization is characterized both by the minimum of similarity function and the transition from on-off intermittency to periodic structure in laminar phase distribution.Comment: 14 Pages and 12 Figure