Crude Palm Oil Price Forecasting: Box-Jenkins Approach

A univariate ARIMA model developed by Box-jenkins was utilised to forecast the short-run monthly price of crude palm oil. The appropriate model for forecasting was found to be (0, 2, 1) (0, 1, 1) 6' This model indicates that the original crude palm oil series is non-stationary and contains some elements of multipliCity, hence inheriting moving average process. The identified ARIMA model induced the data series into a stochastic one, making it a suitable model for forecasting crude palm oil prices in the short term

Estimating the Income and Substitution Effects on the Demand for Poultry Meat

This study attempts to analyze the factors underlying the demand and consumption trends of POUltry meat in Malaysian. Specifically, it explores the poultry, meat consumption due to changes in prices and income and the interaction in demand between floury meat and the components of the rest of the meat market. To obtain the parameters of the demand model for poultry meat, two estimation techniques were used in estimating the demand model, namely single and instrumental variables approach, while Slutsky equations were utilized to estimate the income and substitution effects of poultry meat with the other components of the meat ma diet. The results indicate that poultry meat is a normal good while both beef and pork are substitutes to poultry, meat. However, mixed results were obtained for poultry meat and fish. Based on the magnitude of the substitution effect and cross p17ce elasticity, it is concluded that the demand for fish is independent of the other components of the meat market

Drying and Milling Cost Functions of Paddy: Empirical Estimates for Government Processing Complexes in Malaysia

In this paper, the statistical cost function approach was used to model the drying and milling cost for government paddy/rice processing complexes in Malaysia. The quadratic and inverse cost [unctions were estimated. The results suggest that there exists cost economies at relatively high output levels for both the drying and milling operations. Examination of output data indicates that a large number of government paddy mills operate at low outputs, with cost economies unexploited

Pricing and Causality Among Selected Fats and Oils

This paper studies the nature of price relationships among selected prices of five fats and oils (palm oil, soybean, coconut, fish oils and tallow) to provide empirical evidence as to the competitive structure of the fats and oils market. The fats and oils market is highly competitive and price is shown to be simultaneously discovered by the market with minimum lags and distortions. Statistical causality models developed by Granger, Sims and Haugh-Pierce were used to examine this hypothesis. Inferences are made as to the applicability of the models in understanding the nature of the market

Univariate approach towards cocoa price forecasting

A univariate ARIMA model methodology was utilised to forecast the short-run monthly price of dry cocoa beans. The appropriate model for forecasting was found to be (2, 1, 2) (1, 1, 1) 12. This model indicates that the original cocoa price series is non stationary and contains some elements of multiplicity; hence inheriting both autoregressive and moving average processes

Causality among selected oils and fats prices

This paper aims at ascertaining the casual relationship in particular the lead-lag relationship between selected fats and oils prices. The study utilises cross-correlation technique suggested by Haugh (1972, 1976) and Pierce (1977), which is essentially looking at the relationship between the estimated innovations of stationary time series. The lead-lag relationship and inference on the direction of causality between the prices are tested using U statistic. The study shows that there exists an instantaneous relationship between the selected fats and oils price. While soyabean prices are shown as apparently leading other seedoils like groundnut and sunflower oils and tallow there is a feedback causality between soyabean prices and palm oil prices

Sensitivity of project 8344 model to price and quality parameters.

Project 8344 model is a spatial equilibrium model that incorporates all the important diverse elements in the paddy post-harvest industry in Tanjung Karang. As the background for this paper, the model is first briefly described, calibrated and used to assess the economic viability of the introduction of the semi-bulk grain handling system in the area. It was found that the semi-bulk system is an acceptable economic proposition. Changes were then inflicted on the model to evaluate the robustness of our results to variations in selected key parameters. The results show that the sensitive variables, in descending order, are the price paid for paddy, the rice recovery rate, drying cost and milling cost. The sensitivity of the rice recovery rate has important policy implications. The effect of the closure of one mill and 19 procurements centres that are currently underutilised in our model was also tested. We obtained an increase in net industry loss of 14.6%, which is small, compared to 11.6% change accruing from a 1% change in rice recovery rate. Hence considerable welfare gains may be obtained by reducing and reorganising the existing procurement and processing points in Tanjung Karang